Above the 0.25
NAB’s variable home loan rise is the Reserve Bank’s 0.25, no more. Its owner-occupier principal-and-interest fixed rates for new loans rose 0.35 to 0.47 points in two steps; measured from NAB’s own July repricing, that is between about 8…
On 30 September NAB announced that its variable home loan rates will rise by 0.25 per cent a year from Friday 9 October, after the Reserve Bank raised the cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.60 per cent on 29 September 12. NAB’s release and customer notice state a 0.25 percentage point rise for its variable home loans. Neither states a larger rise for any home loan 1.
Yahoo Finance reported on 2 October that NAB’s increases were “well above the standard 0.25 hike” 3. The increases in that report are NAB’s fixed rates, not its variable home loan rates. Between 14 September and 2 October NAB raised its owner-occupier principal-and-interest fixed rates by 0.35 to 0.47 percentage points, and investor fixed rates by 0.30 to 0.45, in two steps. Owner-occupier interest-only fixed rates rose 0.15 to 0.25 4. From each customer’s first statement after 1 October its credit card purchase rates rise by 0.50 to 1.50 points, under changes that were public for its Rewards and frequent flyer cards by 28 July, two months before the September decision 56. As at 14:23 AEDT on 4 October its headline savings rates had not moved 7. In each of the three earlier rises this year its savings rise took effect on its home loan day, ten days after the decision; this time that day is 9 October 81.
This article answers one question: is NAB taking more than the Reserve Bank’s 0.25, and is that a money grab? It sets out each NAB rate that moved and each that did not, tests the fixed rises against swap rates and government bond yields, sets NAB beside the other lenders, gives the strongest fair case on each side, and quotes NAB’s own words.
01The short answer
On variable home loans NAB is not taking more. Its rise is 0.25 points, the same size and on the same day, 9 October, as CBA, Westpac and ANZ 19. Every lender with a figure on Savings.com.au’s tracker (44) shows 25 basis points; 28 more were still listed as pending on 2 October 10.
On fixed rates for new loans, most of NAB’s rises were larger than 0.25 (owner-occupier principal and interest 0.35 to 0.47, investor 0.30 to 0.45); owner-occupier interest-only rose 0.15 to 0.25 4. Setting them beside the 0.25 cash rate move compares different benchmarks: the Reserve Bank says new fixed mortgage rates follow “tenor-matched swap rates, which they typically reference” 11. From NAB’s own repricing on 22 July, its owner-occupier fixed rises came to between about 8 basis points less and 11 basis points more than the rise in swap rates of the same term, depending on the term and on whether the 1 October swap figures are counted 12. Against government bond yields, from start dates in mid-July to mid-August, NAB’s rises exceeded the yield rise by roughly 0 to 11 basis points 13. From other start dates the gap is wider: across start dates from 21 July to 31 August, the swap measure runs from about 14 basis points under to 23 over 12. NAB’s second step, on 2 October, ran ahead of both benchmarks over the days between its two moves, from 23 September 12. Between 13 August and 16 September those benchmarks rose; NAB’s one- and two-year rates on its page stamped 14 September were the same as after its 22 July cut 1213414.
On credit cards NAB’s purchase rates rise by up to 1.50 points from each customer’s first statement after 1 October, under changes that were public for its Rewards and frequent flyer cards by 28 July, two months before the September decision 56. THE RORT ran no cost test on card rates.
On savings NAB had not moved as at 14:23 AEDT on 4 October. Its headline savings rates were the same then as on 17 September 78. In each of the three earlier rises this year, NAB’s savings rise took effect on the same day as its home loan rise, ten days after the Reserve Bank’s decision; this time that day is 9 October 81. Whether NAB will move by then is not known.
So does the evidence show a money grab? Not on variable home loans, where the rise is exactly the Reserve Bank’s. Not on fixed home loans either, on the tests THE RORT could run, though those tests do not show pure cost pass-through, and the size of normal noise in them has not been measured. The open point is savers. THE RORT will re-read NAB’s pages on 9 October. The record follows.
02What NAB raised, and when
NAB’s release of 30 September says: “NAB will increase its variable home loan interest rates by 0.25% p.a.” and “The new rates will take effect from October 9.” Its notes add: “This change applies to NAB standard variable home loan rates.” 1 NAB’s indicator rate sheet, effective 2 October, gives the label “Standard Variable Rate” to one row, its Tailored variable owner-occupier principal and interest indicator rate of 8.77 per cent 15. None of the NAB pages THE RORT read says in terms which other variable home loans move, or whether new and existing borrowers are treated alike; that is question 8 below.
NAB moved its fixed rates twice. An archived copy of NAB’s fixed-rate page from 15 September 2026 still showed the old rates, stamped “as at 14 September 2026”. An archived copy from 25 September showed rates 0.15 higher, stamped “as at 23 September 2026” 4. The rise was exactly 0.15 on all 80 fixed rates on the page: owner-occupier and investor loans, principal and interest and interest only, one to five years, in four loan to value bands 4. Savings.com.au reported it on 17 September 16. NAB has not stated the date it took effect. It came before the Reserve Bank’s decision of 29 September.
The second step took effect on Friday 2 October; NAB’s page says its information and rates “are correct as at 2 October 2026” 4. For owner-occupiers paying principal and interest with a loan to value ratio of 80 per cent or less, it added 0.20 points at one year, 0.32 at two years, 0.28 at three and four years and 0.30 at five years 4. It came three days after the Reserve Bank’s decision and one week before NAB’s variable rise 417.
Those owner-occupier rates went from 6.44, 6.34, 6.49, 6.49 and 6.49 per cent (one to five years) on the page stamped 14 September, to 6.59, 6.49, 6.64, 6.64 and 6.64 on the page stamped 23 September, to 6.79, 6.81, 6.92, 6.92 and 6.94 from 2 October 4. NAB’s lowest two-year rate rose 0.47 points, from 6.34 to 6.81 per cent, which Canstar’s Sally Tindall put as “0.47 in just over two weeks” 43. Rates for loans above 80 per cent of the property’s value sit 0.10 higher and moved by the same amounts 4.
Across products, between 14 September and 2 October NAB raised its owner-occupier principal-and-interest fixed rates by 0.35 to 0.47 percentage points, and investor fixed rates by 0.30 to 0.45, in two steps. Owner-occupier interest-only fixed rates rose 0.15 to 0.25. The RBA’s cash rate rose 0.25 4. The interest-only line rose least. On 14 September NAB’s owner-occupier interest-only rates sat 0.15 to 0.20 points above its investor interest-only rates; after 2 October the two are equal, at 6.94, 6.99, 7.07, 7.07 and 7.09 per cent 4.
The 0.47 has a history. On 22 July NAB cut its one-year owner-occupier fixed rate by 0.05 points, from 6.49 to 6.44 per cent, and its two-year rate by 0.20, from 6.54 to 6.34 14. The same day it cut its investor fixed rates, principal and interest and interest only, by 0.15 points across the board, on Savings.com.au’s report 14. At 6.81 per cent the two-year owner-occupier rate is now 0.27 above its pre-cut 6.54 per cent, while the two-year government bond yield rose about 40 basis points from 21 July (4.539) to 30 September (4.942) 1413. On 14 September NAB’s page showed 6.49 per cent at three, four and five years; no source THE RORT read shows those three rates on 22 July 414.
One kind of NAB variable rate does rise by more than 0.25: its credit card rates. Its page “Credit card changes from 1 October 2026” says “The variable purchase rate will increase from 20.99% p.a. to 22.49% p.a.” on its Low Fee, frequent flyer and Rewards cards, and from 13.49 to 13.99 per cent on its Low Rate Card; cash advance rates rise from 21.74 to 22.99 per cent 5. The section on cards below sets out when those changes became public and what other banks did.
THE RORT found no NAB statement of a change to its business, overdraft or personal loan variable rates after the decision. NAB’s business indicator rates are stamped effective 28 September and show no change 18. NAB published separate business-loan releases for two of its three 2025 cuts; its interest-rates news index shows none for 2026, including the September rise 1918. Whether those rates will move is not known.
Ubank has made its own announcement. Ubank, whose products are issued by “Ubank, part of National Australia Bank Limited”, says on its home loan pages: “We’ll be increasing our Neat and Flex standard variable home loan rates by 0.25% p.a. effective from 8 October 2026.” On the morning of 30 September the same banner had said it was “currently reviewing the recent decision from the RBA” 20.
03Who pays the new fixed rates
The fixed rates that rose are NAB’s advertised rates for new loans. NAB’s offer box says “This offer is for new owner occupier ... principal and interest home loans”, and its rate page says the rates shown are “NAB’s current fixed and variable home loan interest rates for new loans” 421.
Borrowers already part-way through a fixed term are not affected. NAB’s general terms say: “Any rise in interest rates won’t be passed onto you while your rate is fixed” 22.
When a fixed term ends, the loan rolls onto a variable rate unless the borrower re-fixes: “When your fixed rate period ends, your home loan will automatically roll onto a variable rate, unless you arrange to re-fix your loan before your fixed rate expires.” NAB says it sends a reminder letter about a month before, with the new rate 22. A borrower who re-fixes pays, in the words of NAB’s terms, “our applicable advertised fixed indicator rate that’s published on the day the fixed rate period begins”, after which NAB will “apply any applicable margins outlined in your Offer Letter” 22. None of the NAB pages THE RORT read defines that indicator rate or says whether it equals the new-loan rates on its fixed-rate page; that is question 2 below. NAB’s Rate Lock is not available when “Rolling from an existing fixed rate term on to a new fixed rate term” 22. The terms quoted are the edition on NAB’s site on 4 October, dated 2024 22.
Few new borrowers fix. Australian Broker reported on 17 September that “CBA’s full-year results show just 7% of new lending in the six months to June 2026 went to fixed-rate products” 23. That is one bank’s new lending over six months, a different measure from the Reserve Bank’s market-wide figure for new and outstanding mortgages quoted in THE RORT’s The savers’ share. THE RORT has not reconciled the two, and neither counts the households paying NAB’s new fixed rates.
04What the rise costs, on one loan
An example, on THE RORT’s arithmetic. It is one hypothetical loan, not a household’s budget: a new $600,000 owner-occupier loan over 30 years, principal and interest, fixed for two years at NAB’s lowest two-year rate.
At 6.34 per cent, the rate on NAB’s page stamped 14 September, the monthly repayment is $3,729.50. At 6.49 per cent, after the first step, it is $3,788.46. At 6.81 per cent, from 2 October, it is $3,915.55: $186.05 a month more than at 6.34 per cent 4.
Had NAB’s two-year rate risen by the Reserve Bank’s 0.25 alone, from 6.34 to 6.59 per cent, the repayment would be $3,827.99; at 6.81 per cent it is $87.56 a month more than that. Measured instead from NAB’s two-year rate before its July cut, 6.54 per cent, the repayment would have been $3,808.21, and the rise from there to 6.81 per cent is $107.34 a month 14.
Method: the standard repayment formula for a loan repaid in equal monthly instalments, at one-twelfth of the annual rate, over 360 payments, rounded to the cent. NAB says its fixed rates “won’t change during the fixed term”, so each repayment holds for the two years 4. Canstar’s figures in THE RORT’s Who pays for the rises are for a different loan, a variable one with 25 years left.
05Why fixed rates need a different test
NAB says its variable rates “change due to the many factors that impact our cost of funds. One of those factors is the official cash rate, which is set by the RBA.” 24 A fixed rate locks in a price for one to five years. The Reserve Bank’s May 2026 Bulletin says new fixed mortgage rates declined through most of 2025 and began to increase around the end of 2025, “following movements in tenor-matched swap rates, which they typically reference” 11. THE RORT also uses government bond yields of the same term, as a proxy. Comparing NAB’s fixed rises with the 0.25 cash rate move compares different benchmarks.
Those market rates rose before the Reserve Bank moved. Between 13 August and 30 September, the two-year yield rose 41 basis points while the cash rate stayed at 4.35 per cent until 30 September, as markets moved toward a September hike and amid a global bond sell-off 1325. On 30 September the ABC reported that “The Australian government’s long-term borrowing rate has risen to its highest level in 15 years” and that “The US government’s 10-year bond yield has jumped to its highest level since the global financial crisis” 25. The Reserve Bank’s statement of 29 September said “global energy prices are now much higher than had been assumed in the August forecasts” 2.
What markets expected moved too. The RBA’s August Statement said markets were pricing about a 50 per cent chance of a rate rise by year end; its data cut-off was 5 August 26. On 17 September Savings.com.au reported markets pricing “a 76% chance” of a September rise 16. NAB’s own economists had moved on 27 August to expect one: “NAB now expects the RBA to increase the cash rate by 25bp in September to 4.6%.” 19 Westpac’s chief economist, Luci Ellis, called it “quite the turnaround from the 11 August meeting, where an extended period on hold looked to be the base case” 25.
After the decision, the odds of another rise fell. On 30 September the ABC reported that “money markets predict only a 20% chance of a November hike” 25. As at 1 October 2026, Westpac and ANZ forecast a November hike and CBA and NAB a hold (MPA) 27. NAB lifted its fixed rates again on 2 October. Canstar’s Tindall read the move as “suggesting the bank is now factoring in yet another rate hike in the months ahead” 3. A fixed rate for one to five years prices the path of rates over those years, not one meeting, so neither the market odds nor the forecasts settle what a five-year rate should be.
NAB’s own stated reason, given to the ABC on 2 October: “Fixed home loan rates are influenced by a range of factors, including wholesale funding costs and market conditions. Like other lenders, NAB regularly reviews its pricing and adjusts rates when required.” 28 NAB’s interest-rates news index carries no fixed-rate release between 1 September and 4 October 19.
06The funding test
THE RORT tested NAB’s owner-occupier fixed rises against two benchmarks: swap rates of the same term, which the Reserve Bank says fixed rates reference, and Commonwealth government bond yields from the Reserve Bank’s own tables, as a proxy 111312. Neither is what NAB itself pays for funds. Both are market rates at one time of day, and NAB has not said which day it priced on. The four- and five-year swap rates are published daily by BlueGamma; the one- to three-year figures are THE RORT’s estimates, interpolated between the published six-month and four-year rates 12. Changes in the constructed one- to three-year rates match published series within about 3 basis points over windows of several weeks, but can miss by up to 7 basis points over a single week 12. BlueGamma’s six-month series is identical to the ASX BBSW six-month fixing on every day checked (18 September to 1 October), so its dates are correct. The four- and five-year series carry the same 17:00 Sydney timestamps, but their date alignment was not tested directly 12.
Over the whole period, the answer depends on the start date. From NAB’s 22 July repricing, NAB’s owner-occupier fixed rises minus the moves in matched-term swap rates come to between 8 basis points under and 5 over, by term, if the 1 October swap level is counted, and between 1 and 11 basis points over if the window ends on 30 September. Across start dates from 21 July to 31 August the figure ranges from about 14 basis points under to 23 over, so the answer depends heavily on the start date 12. NAB’s three- to five-year rates on 22 July are worked back from later pages, not shown in any source.
Against government bond yields the picture is similar. Measured from mid-July to mid-August start dates, NAB’s cumulative fixed rises exceeded the rise in matched-term government bond yields by roughly 0 to 11 basis points, depending on term and start date 13. Ending both series on 30 September, the swap benchmark gives results close to the bond benchmark: at five years, 7 basis points over against 8, from 22 July. Counting the uncorroborated 1 October swap jump turns the three- to five-year result negative 1213. On 1 October BlueGamma’s five-year swap rate rose 13 basis points in a day, to 5.36 per cent. THE RORT found no independent source to confirm that move, and no swap data at all for 2 October, the day NAB’s rise took effect 12.
Step by step, NAB lagged and then moved ahead. Between 13 August and 16 September matched swap rates rose about 27 to 51 basis points, and two-, three- and five-year government bond yields 46 to 49 1213. NAB’s one- and two-year rates on its page stamped 14 September were the same as after its 22 July cut; whether any of its rates moved between those dates is not on the record 414. Over 14 to 23 September, a window that spans the 15 September peak, matched swaps were net 5 basis points down to 5 up, while NAB added 0.15 on every term 124.
Then the second step. Between NAB’s two moves, yields ended lower (30 September was 2 to 7 basis points below 16 September), but they did not fall steadily: the two-year traded above its 16 September level on 24, 25 and 28 September (5.029, 5.018, 5.057 against 5.000) before falling on 29 and 30 September 13. Measured from 23 September, the date on NAB’s page after its first step, to the day before NAB acted (swap rates to 1 October, bond yields to 30 September, the last day in the Reserve Bank’s table), NAB’s second step ran ahead of matched swap rates by about 15 to 25 basis points and of government bond yields by about 28 to 33 1213. On 1 October the four- and five-year swap rates (5.33, 5.36) were within 3 basis points of their 15 September peak (5.36, 5.38), and the constructed two-year was about 4 basis points above its 15 September level 12. Whether NAB priced off mid-September levels is not known.
Bond yields after 30 September come from a different source. On Trading Economics’ quotes the three-year yield was about 4.98 on 1 October and 4.88 on 2 October. Against the RBA’s 4.922 on 30 September, pricing off the 1 October close would make NAB’s second rise look about 6 basis points smaller against funding, and pricing off the 2 October close about 4 basis points larger; the sources differ, so these are indicative only 2913. Trading Economics’ figures for 2 October are internally inconsistent for the two-year (4.83 in its summary, 4.92 in its quote table) 29.
Another view is the gap between NAB’s fixed rate and the government bond yield of the same term. It is not NAB’s profit margin: a government bond yield is what the Commonwealth pays to borrow, not what NAB pays. NAB’s two-year rate sat 181 basis points above the two-year yield on 13 August, if NAB’s rates were unchanged from 22 July to 17 September; 134 on 16 September, at the rates on NAB’s page stamped 14 September; and 187 after 2 October, at 30 September yields 413. At three and five years the gaps after 2 October are 200 and 196, against 198.5 and 191 on 13 August on the same condition 13.
By product, on THE RORT’s arithmetic from the Reserve Bank’s zero-coupon yields for 13 August to 30 September (one year up 34 basis points, two years 40, three years 41, five years 39) 13: owner-occupier principal-and-interest rates rose 1, 7, 2 and 6 basis points more than those yields at one, two, three and five years; investor rates rose 4 basis points less, 5 more, 3 less and 1 more; owner-occupier interest-only rates rose 19, 15, 23 and 19 basis points less. All three rest on NAB’s rates being unchanged from 13 August to 14 September, and 13 August was a low point for yields, which makes NAB’s rises look smaller against them on this start date. Against swap rates, NAB’s investor two-year rate rose 3 to 4 basis points more than the matched swap rate from a 22 July or 13 August start 1214. From the two-year rate’s level before the July cut, NAB’s rise is 0.27 against about 0.40 in the two-year yield: about 13 basis points less 1413.
Whether any of these gaps is bigger than the normal noise in such a test has not been measured. THE RORT’s reading of the figures is in the verdict below.
07NAB beside the other lenders
On variable rates the market moved together. CBA, Westpac, ANZ and NAB each announced 0.25 from 9 October, and Macquarie 0.25 from 15 October 9. Finder’s tracker, updated 30 September, listed 46 lenders, all at 25 basis points 10. Among the lenders THE RORT checked, one went below: Granite will pass on only part of the rise to new loans (Australian Broker, 2 October); the effective date of the rate change was not stated 10. Another went above, on a product no longer sold: Bendigo’s Home Equity Line of Credit, up 0.50 10.
On fixed rates NAB was not alone and not the biggest mover. Westpac lifted its lowest owner-occupier fixed rates by up to 0.45 points on 18 September, and CBA by up to 0.48 on 22 September, each in a single step 3031. NAB’s largest cumulative rise across its two moves (0.47, two-year) is just below CBA’s largest single rise (up to 0.48) and just above Westpac’s (up to 0.45), per Canstar figures quoted by Yahoo Finance 3. ANZ raised by up to 0.20, with its two-year rate up 0.20 to 6.49 per cent 23.
It was a market-wide move. By 24 September Canstar counted 18 lenders that had raised at least one fixed term in September 32. In the week to 29 September thirteen lenders lifted 312 fixed home loan rates by an average of 0.26 points, Australian Broker reported, in what Canstar’s Sally Tindall described as a sharp reversal 33.
Macquarie raised its fixed rates twice in September, by up to 0.30 in a rise media reports date to 8 September and up to 0.20 in a rise reported on 24 September 3432. Those rises mostly reversed cuts it made on 5 June, when Canstar reported cuts of 0.25 to 0.50 points across its one- to five-year rates. Its rates on 3 October were 0.05 points above its pre-June levels at one and two years, level at three and four years and 0.10 below at five 34.
Where the big four and Macquarie stood on 3 October, lowest owner-occupier principal-and-interest fixed rates, one to five years, from each bank’s own page or open-banking product data (their bases differ, as the reference notes): NAB 6.79, 6.81, 6.92, 6.92 and 6.94 per cent; CBA 6.78, 6.82, 6.89, 6.89 and 6.94; Westpac 6.74, 6.74, 6.94, 7.09 and 7.14; ANZ 6.49, 6.49, 6.64, 6.64 and 6.69; Macquarie 6.49, 6.59, 6.59, 6.64 and 6.64 3534. After its second step NAB sits at about CBA’s levels: 0.01 above at one year, 0.01 below at two, 0.03 above at three and four, and level at five. On those figures, whose bases differ, NAB’s 6.79 per cent was the highest one-year rate of the big four on 3 October, 0.01 above CBA’s package rate 35.
As at 3 October NAB was the only big four bank to have moved its fixed rates after the decision; CBA’s, Westpac’s and ANZ’s own product data still showed their pre-decision levels 1735. Yahoo Finance reported that NAB was “the only big four bank to have raised its rates twice in just over two weeks” 3.
The Nightly (24 September) reports sector-wide margin pressure; the same piece reports brokers rate CBA and NAB the least competitive majors on home loan pricing 36.
08Savers: what NAB has and has not moved
As at 14:23 AEDT on Sunday 4 October, NAB’s savings page, deposit rate schedule (effective 28 September), term deposit pages, newsroom and interest-rates news index showed no savings or term deposit rate change after the RBA’s 29 September decision 73719.
Its headline rates: the Reward Saver pays “a total of 5.00% p.a.”, made of “an ongoing 0.01% p.a. variable base rate” and a 4.99 per cent bonus paid in months when the customer qualifies; the iSaver pays “an introductory rate of 5.25% p.a for the first 4 months, then a standard variable rate of 1.65% p.a” 7. NAB’s headline savings rates (Reward Saver 5.00%, iSaver 5.25% introductory then 1.65%) were the same at 12:41 AEST on 3 October as on 17 September, after the RBA’s 0.25 rise and NAB’s announced 0.25 home loan rise 78. They were the same again at 14:23 AEDT on 4 October 7. Archived copies show the same figures on 22 and 27 May, 11 July and 10 August; changes between those copies cannot be ruled out 8.
The Reward Saver’s 5.00 per cent total is above the 4.60 per cent cash rate, but all of it except 0.01 points is the conditional bonus 72. The ACCC found in 2023 that on average 71 per cent of bonus interest accounts did not receive bonus interest in any given month; that is a 2023 finding across the market, not a figure for NAB in 2026 38.
NAB raised savings rates after each of the three earlier rises this year: the Reward Saver by 0.25 points from 13 February and from 27 March, and by 0.35 from 15 May, to 5.00 per cent 8. Each time, the savings rise took effect on the same day as NAB’s home loan rise, ten days after the Reserve Bank’s decision 8. This time the home loan rise takes effect on Friday 9 October, the tenth day; 4 October is the fifth 1. NAB’s own news item on the February savings rise is dated 13 February, the day the rise took effect; no earlier NAB notice was found. In March NAB’s savings notice came between 2 and 10 days after the decision (Canstar still reported silence on 18 March; the rise took effect 27 March); in May between 6 and 10 days after (Canstar reported “under review” on 11 May; the rise took effect 15 May) 839. Whether NAB will change its savings rates by 9 October, or at all, is not known; its release says only that “NAB also regularly reviews its savings and deposit rates” 1.
Across the four 2026 rises the cash rate is up 1.00 point; as at 14:23 AEDT on 4 October, five days after the fourth decision, NAB’s Reward Saver bonus rate is up 0.85, all of it from the first three rises, which totalled 0.75; its unconditional base rate is unchanged at 0.01%, and the iSaver standard rate is up 0.40 840. The bonus rate’s starting level, 4.14 per cent, is worked back from NAB’s February notice 8.
On term deposits NAB moved before the decision, in both directions. Between NAB’s 31 August and 28 September rate schedules, NAB raised its 7, 8, 10, 11 and 12 month term deposit rates by 0.05 to 0.15 points (12 months 5.15% to 5.30%), cut its 9 month rate from 5.00% to 3.80%, and left 30 day to 6 month and 24 to 60 month rates unchanged 37. NAB cut its 9-month term deposit from 5.00% to 3.70% in the first half of September and set it at 3.80% in its 28 September schedule, both before the RBA decision 37. Whether the 12-month rate of 5.30 per cent took effect on 21 or 28 September is not on the record 37.
Other banks’ savers, as at 4 October. Westpac announced on 30 September that its Westpac Life rate with bonus interest rises 0.25 points to 5.25 per cent from 9 October 41. CBA announced on 2 October “a variety of increases across select savings products, effective 9 October 2026”, including its NetBank Saver standard rate from 2.10 to 2.30 per cent for new and existing customers and its GoalSaver rate with bonus from 5.00 to 5.25 per cent 42. Macquarie told savers on the day of the decision, 29 September (NewsWire report), that its savings rates rise from 15 October 4344. ANZ’s own pages and product data showed no savings rate change; Yahoo Finance reported on 1 October that ANZ will raise the bonus rate on its Plus Growth Saver by 0.25 from 9 October, which THE RORT did not find on ANZ’s own pages 4543. Ubank says: “From 6 October 2026, our Everyday Bonus Rate will increase to 5.35% p.a. Customers receiving our Welcome Bonus Rate will earn 6.10% p.a. from that date.” Both are bonus rates with conditions 20.
On 30 September, the day the big four announced their home loan rises, Canstar reported: “CBA, NAB and ANZ have not yet announced any increases to their savings rates.” CBA has since announced; as at 14:23 AEDT on 4 October NAB had not 46427.
None of the five banks’ 12-month term deposit rates had changed since the 29 September decision on their pages as at 14:23 AEDT on 4 October. NAB, CBA and ANZ carry rate dates or stamps before 29 September, Westpac’s 12-month special dates from 21 September, and Macquarie’s page (undated) shows 5.35% for 12 months 4737.
09What NAB tells its investors
NAB’s group net interest margin rose from 1.70% (half to March 2025) to 1.81% (half to March 2026) and was 1.79% in the June 2026 quarter. NAB’s own investor slides say the ‘benefit of rising rates’ shows up in its replicating portfolios and forecast a tailwind of about 5 basis points for the second half of FY26, while its lending margin was squeezed by competition. Cash earnings excluding a one-off software charge were up 0.1% on a year earlier in the March 2026 half. In the June 2026 quarter they were up 4% on a year earlier and 2% on the March half’s quarterly average, a rise NAB put mainly down to lower credit impairment charges. Full-year FY25 cash earnings fell 0.2% and statutory profit fell 2.9% 4849.
The slide, in NAB’s 2026 half-year investor presentation and repeated in its August 2026 Debt Investor Update, reads: “Benefit of rising rates largely reflected in replicating portfolios”. Under “Key 2H26 considerations” it lists “Deposit and capital replicating portfolios tailwind of ~5bps”, with the footnote “Based on market implied 3 and 5 year swap rates trajectory as of 31 March 2026 and stable balances” 49. That is NAB’s forward estimate as at 31 March 2026 for the half to 30 September 2026, made before the May and September rises. It is not an outcome, and it is not a statement about the September rise.
A replicating portfolio is the kind of hedge the Reserve Bank describes as a way to “transform the fixed (or zero) interest rate payments on banks’ liabilities into floating rate payments” 11. THE RORT’s The savers’ share sets out how that works for deposits that pay little.
NAB’s own margin bridge for the March 2026 half shows its lending margin cut the group margin by 4 basis points (Australian home lending 2, Australian business lending 2), while replicating portfolios added 3, deposits 1, liquid assets 1 and Markets and Treasury 2 49. That is THE RORT’s reading of NAB’s chart. On NAB’s record to 30 June 2026 the group margin is steady to slightly wider, but the lending margin itself narrowed; the widening came from replicating portfolios, deposits and Markets and Treasury 4849. NAB’s own account of the half: “Excluding a 2 bps increase from M&T and a 1 bp benefit from liquid assets, NIM was stable reflecting higher earnings from the deposit replicating portfolio combined with lower deposit cost and deposit mix benefits, offset by lending competition.” 48
NAB named lending competition as the drag on its margin in the December 2025 quarter, the March 2026 half and the June 2026 quarter 48. Of the results NAB has reported from the March 2025 half to the June 2026 quarter, the June 2026 quarter is the only one in which the group margin fell 48. NAB said that excluding Markets and Treasury its margin rose 2 basis points in the June quarter, “mainly reflecting higher earnings on deposit and capital replicating portfolios partially offset by lending competition and small deposit impacts” 48.
Across the industry, Australian banks’ industry profit after tax rose 7.5% in the year to June 2026 (APRA) 50.
None of this can yet show the September rise. No NAB or APRA margin or profit figure we have read covers any period after 30 June 2026. NAB’s FY26 result on 5 November covers the year to 30 September and so cannot show the effect of the September 2026 rate rise on its loan and deposit pricing; the March 2027 half, reported on 5 May 2027, is the first full half that can 51. NAB’s calendar says its dates “are subject to change” 51.
In its 2019-20 home loan price inquiry, the ACCC’s interim report, provided to the Treasurer on 30 March 2020, found that “All of the banks aimed to at least partly recover their anticipated profit reductions through their headline rate decisions”, and that “in mid-2018 to early 2019, each of the big four banks increased headline variable rates when there was no change in the cash rate” 52. That is a finding about 2018 and 2019, not about 2026.
10The Reserve Bank’s figures, both ways
The Reserve Bank’s May 2026 Bulletin, on data to March 2026, before the May and September rises, carries lines that cut both ways 11.
For the banks: “Banks fully passed through cash rate reductions to lending rates on new variable-rate housing loans in 2025 and have increased lending rates broadly in line with the cash rate in early 2026.” “Spreads between lending rates and the cash rate have remained at their narrowest levels in almost two decades”. Banks’ net interest margins “stabilised in 2025 around historical lows” 11.
Against them: “the spread between banks’ lending rates and funding costs has widened, though it remains narrower than pre-pandemic levels”, and, in its conclusion, “the estimated spread between lending rates and funding costs has risen from low levels. By contrast, banks’ NIMs remain around historical lows.” 11 Its table puts the major banks’ total funding costs at 3.76 per cent in March 2026, down 47 basis points since January 2025, while the cash rate fell 25; lower hedging costs account for 15 of the 47 11. The Bank cautions that “actual funding costs may vary from our estimates”, and that this “may indicate that we have over-estimated the recent decline in hedging costs” 11.
On deposits: “Deposit costs declined by less than the decline in the cash rate over 2025 and rose by less than the cash rate as it was increased in early 2026.” “On average, at-call deposit rates have adjusted by less than the cash rate.” 11 The Bulletin adds that “some banks have said that stronger competition for deposits has weighed on profitability”, but that “there has been little evidence of this at the aggregate level” 11. THE RORT reads the deposit lines as a lag that has run in both directions, which cuts against a simple claim that money only moves one way; that is THE RORT’s inference, not the Bank’s.
11The card rates
From 1 October, the variable purchase rate on six of NAB’s card headings, covering its Low Fee, frequent flyer and Rewards cards, rises from 20.99 to 22.49 per cent; on the Low Rate Card from 13.49 to 13.99; and the cash advance rate from 21.74 to 22.99 per cent on those cards and the Low Rate Platinum 5. NAB says: “Any change to your interest rates will apply from the opening date of your next statement after 1 October 2026.” 5 The Rewards Signature card’s $35 monthly fee becomes $395 a year 5.
NAB’s purchase-rate rises on its Rewards and frequent flyer cards, and its cash advance rises, were public by 28 July 2026, 65 days before 1 October. Its Low Fee and Low Rate purchase-rate rises were not on NAB’s card-updates page on 10 August and were there by 29 September. NAB says rate changes apply from each customer’s first statement opening after 1 October 6535. The first public trace THE RORT found is a forum post of 28 July that pastes NAB’s wording; NAB’s own first announcement date is not verified 6. Canstar reported the Rewards and frequent flyer card changes on 30 July 53. The Rewards and frequent flyer card rises were public two months before the RBA’s 29 September decision. All of NAB’s 1 October purchase-rate rises, including Low Fee and Low Rate, were on NAB’s page in an archived copy taken at 11:12 AEST on 29 September 53.
NAB’s archived pages show no change to these purchase rates between the February 2024 rise (Rewards, frequent flyer and Low Rate cards) or the September 2024 rise (Low Fee Card, per savings.com.au) and 1 October 2026: about 32 and 25 months respectively. Changes between archived copies cannot be ruled out 54. The February 2024 rise, of 1 percentage point to 20.99 and 13.49 per cent, came in mid-February 2024: NAB’s page was stamped ‘Correct as at 13 February 2024’ and AAP, dated 14 February 2024, reported the rise as effective that day 54. Savings.com.au reported on 13 September 2024 that NAB was raising its Low Fee Card purchase rate to 20.99 per cent, “a jump of 125 basis points on the old rate” 54.
Since February 2024 the cash rate has been cut three times and raised four times, a net rise of 0.25 points; since 13 September 2024 it went from 4.35 to 3.60 per cent and back up to 4.60 40. NAB’s card rises of 1.50 and 0.50 points are larger than that net change and than any single cash rate move in the period, each of which was 0.25. NAB’s card-updates page does not mention card surcharges or interchange fees 5.
Other banks’ card rates, as their own pages show them: ANZ says that “As of 28 September 2026, the standard Annual Percentage Interest Rate on Purchases, Cash Advances and standard Balance Transfers increased”, to 22.49 per cent for purchases; its Low Rate card “has not changed and remains at 13.74% p.a.” 55 Westpac’s Altitude cards are at 23.98% p.a. on Westpac’s own rates page (Finder and Canstar report 23.99, and the old 20.99 rate is from Finder), from 30 September 55. CBA’s page shows 20.99 per cent on its Low Fee, Smart and Ultimate cards, and a personalised Low Rate range: “From 10 December 2024, interest rates offered on approval vary from 10.99% p.a. to 15.99% p.a.” 55 Canstar wrote of NAB’s rewards card changes, which include fees and earn rates, that “These changes are being made as a result of the RBA’s surcharge ban and corresponding cut to the cap on interchange fees that help fund rewards programs”; that is Canstar’s account, and NAB’s page mentions neither. Canstar reported that Westpac says its own changes, to card insurance, are not directly related to the interchange fee cap 535. Finder, reporting Westpac’s and St.George’s card changes on 24 August, wrote that they “come ahead of the 1 October 2026 ban on card surcharges” 55. NAB’s page heads its changes “Credit card changes from 1 October 2026”, and its rate changes apply from each customer’s first statement after that date 5.
The Reserve Bank’s table of indicator card rates, F5, which showed 20.99 and 13.49 per cent through August, is an indicator across large lenders, not NAB’s own rate. F5’s latest figures are for 31 August 2026, before any of the big-bank card rises. ANZ’s 28 September rise, and possibly Westpac’s from 30 September, fall within the 30 September observation; NAB’s 1 October rise cannot appear before the 31 October observation 56.
THE RORT ran no cost test on card rates and draws no conclusion on whether NAB’s card rises are fair. NAB’s page says: “Most changes require us to give you at least 30 days’ notice, which we have done.” When the Low Fee and Low Rate cardholders were told is question 7 below 5. The archived copies do not show when NAB told those cardholders: 10 August is 52 days before 1 October, and NAB may have written to them directly. THE RORT does not suggest that NAB gave less notice than its page states.
12Is it legal?
We found no provision in the Competition and Consumer Act, the ASIC Act or the National Credit Code that ties a lender’s rate to the cash rate, and the ACCC says the cash rate is not a regulated rate 5738. In the ACCC’s words, the cash rate is not “a regulated rate that banks must receive from borrowers or pay to depositors” 38. THE RORT did not search the Banking Act, the Reserve Bank Act or state law.
Price gouging is not a general offence. In December 2025, before the supermarket ban took effect, The Conversation wrote that price gouging, “setting prices at a level far higher than people think is reasonable”, “isn’t currently illegal for businesses in Australia” 58. The only Commonwealth ban on excessive prices covers very large supermarkets, from 1 July 2026. Banks are outside it 58. The Northern Territory used its Price Exploitation Prevention Act, a 1949 law, for fuel in March 2026, with power in “the most extreme cases” to “overrule and set the price” 59. The Parliament’s page for a Greens excessive-pricing bill records its second reading negatived on 9 October 2024 and on 5 February 2026; the Greens said of the 2024 vote that Labor had voted down “a Greens Bill that would have made price gouging illegal” 60.
Bank pricing falls under the ASIC Act rather than most of the Australian Consumer Law: section 131A of the Competition and Consumer Act takes financial services out of most of the consumer law 57. The ASIC Act bans conduct that is “in all the circumstances, unconscionable” (section 12CB) and misleading or deceptive conduct (section 12DA) 57. It treats as possibly unfair a term that lets one party “vary the upfront price payable under the contract without the right of another party to terminate the contract”, but a term that “sets the upfront price” is excluded from that review 57. Whether a variable-rate clause counts as an upfront price was not tested.
Misuse of market power is narrower than a price test. Section 46 of the Competition and Consumer Act says: “A corporation that has a substantial degree of power in a market must not engage in conduct that has the purpose, or has or is likely to have the effect, of substantially lessening competition in” a market 57. THE RORT did not search for any case applying section 46, section 12CB or the consumer law to bank rate setting.
Government has levers short of a price cap. The Treasurer can direct the ACCC to hold a price inquiry (s95H) or to monitor a business’s prices, costs and profits (s95ZF). Treasurers directed bank-pricing inquiries in 2017, 2019 and 2023; we found no s95ZF monitoring direction aimed at a bank 5761. Treasury said on 1 April 2026 that it is “considering whether further steps are appropriate in the financial services sector” 62. A ban on unfair trading practices passed Parliament on 2 July 2026 and starts on 1 July 2027; whether it reaches financial services was not checked 62.
The rules govern notice, not size. The National Credit Code requires written notice of a rate change “not later than the day on which a change in the annual percentage rate or rates payable under a credit contract takes effect” (section 64) 57. The Credit Code requires 20 days’ written notice of a change in repayments, but where the contract sets repayments by a formula, only a change to the formula itself triggers that notice. Canstar reports NAB gives at least 30 days’ notice of new repayments 5763. The Banking Code’s paragraph 35 reads in full: “If we change an interest rate, we will tell you as soon as reasonably possible, but no later than the date of the change, unless we are not able to because the interest rate is calculated according to a money market or some other external reference rate, or a rate otherwise designated as a variable or floating rate.” None of the Code’s eight passages on interest rates limits the size of a rise 64.
On what THE RORT found, no law ties NAB’s rises to the cash rate, and no Commonwealth price-gouging ban reaches banks. What constrains bank pricing is competition, disclosure and notice, and the Treasurer’s power to order an inquiry. Whether NAB met its notice and disclosure duties on these changes was not tested. THE RORT does not suggest that NAB has breached any of these laws.
13The strongest case on each side
The case that NAB is taking more than it needs to, at its strongest:
The timing of the second step. NAB’s 2 October rise of up to 0.32 came after government bond yields had ended, on 30 September, 2 to 7 basis points below their 16 September level, though the two-year traded above that level on 24, 25 and 28 September; and it ran ahead of matched swap rates by about 15 to 25 basis points over its own window 1312. It came after money markets had cut the odds of a November rise to about 20 per cent, and with NAB’s own economists forecasting a hold 2527.
NAB stood out among the majors. As at 3 October it was the only big four bank to have moved fixed rates after the decision; Yahoo Finance reported it was the only one to have raised them twice in just over two weeks; and, on figures whose bases differ, its one-year rate was the highest of the four, by 0.01 353. The Nightly (24 September) reports that brokers rate CBA and NAB the least competitive majors on home loan pricing (the same piece reports sector-wide margin pressure) 36.
NAB tells investors rising rates help it. Its slides say the “Benefit of rising rates” is “largely reflected in replicating portfolios”, with a tailwind of about 5 basis points forecast for the half to September, as estimated at 31 March 49. The Reserve Bank, on data to March 2026, concludes that “the estimated spread between lending rates and funding costs has risen from low levels. By contrast, banks’ NIMs remain around historical lows.” Its table attributes 15 of the 47 basis point fall in the major banks’ funding costs since January 2025 to lower hedging costs 11.
Savers wait. NAB has announced its borrowers’ 0.25, effective 9 October, but as at 14:23 AEDT on 4 October its savings page and interest-rates news index showed no change to its savings rates 1719. In each earlier rise this year its savings rise took effect on its home loan day, ten days after the decision; this time that day is 9 October, and NAB has not said publicly what it will do 8.
The past. The ACCC found in 2020 that each of the big four raised headline variable rates in mid-2018 to early 2019 when the cash rate had not changed; that is a finding about that period, not this one 52.
The case that NAB is not, at its strongest:
The variable rise is exactly 0.25, on the same day as CBA, Westpac and ANZ, and every lender with a published figure on the trackers moved by the same amount 1910.
Over the whole period the fixed rises differ from the market benchmarks in both directions, and fall below them on some products and start dates: from NAB’s 22 July repricing, owner-occupier rises between 8 basis points under and 11 over swap rates; from the two-year rate’s pre-cut level, about 13 basis points under the bond yield; investor rates from 4 under to 5 over; owner-occupier interest-only rates 15 to 23 under 1213. Between 13 August and 16 September swap rates and bond yields rose, and NAB’s one- and two-year rates on its page stamped 14 September were the same as after its 22 July cut 1213414.
A fixed rate prices the path of rates over one to five years, not the next meeting, so neither the November odds nor the forecasts settle what a fixed rate should be; NAB says its fixed rates are influenced by a range of factors, including “wholesale funding costs and market conditions” 28.
NAB was not the biggest mover. CBA’s single rise of up to 0.48 and Westpac’s of up to 0.45 came before NAB’s second step, 18 lenders moved in September, and NAB’s rates now sit at about CBA’s 30313235.
NAB’s own margin record shows its lending margin narrowing, with the group margin held up by deposits, replicating portfolios and Markets and Treasury, and lending competition named as the drag in each period from December 2025 to June 2026 4948. The Reserve Bank says banks’ margins “stabilised in 2025 around historical lows” 11.
Savers may yet be paid. In each earlier rise this year NAB’s savings rise took effect with its home loan rise, ten days after the decision, and this time that day is 9 October; in May its Reward Saver rose 0.35 against the Reserve Bank’s 0.25 8. NAB’s own Ubank has announced higher bonus savings rates, of 5.35 and 6.10 per cent, from 6 October 20.
14The verdict
Variable home loans: a pass-through of exactly the Reserve Bank’s 0.25. The evidence shows no money grab.
Fixed home loans: most of NAB’s fixed rises for new loans were larger than 0.25 (owner-occupier principal and interest 0.35 to 0.47, investor 0.30 to 0.45); owner-occupier interest-only rose 0.15 to 0.25. Setting them beside the cash rate compares different benchmarks: the Reserve Bank says new fixed rates have followed tenor-matched swap rates, which they typically reference, and THE RORT also uses government bond yields as a proxy. Over the whole period NAB’s owner-occupier rises came to between about 14 basis points under and 23 over the rise in matched swap rates, depending on the start date chosen, and between 8 under and 11 over from NAB’s own July repricing; against government bond yields, from mid-July to mid-August start dates, about 0 to 11 over. THE RORT reads the arithmetic as NAB catching up, in two steps, with the rise in those market rates between 13 August and 16 September: NAB’s one- and two-year rates on its page stamped 14 September were the same as after its 22 July cut, and by 1 October the four- and five-year swap rates were within 3 basis points of their 15 September peak. That is THE RORT’s reading of endpoint figures, not a finding about NAB’s motive, which NAB has not given. Over its own window, from 23 September, the second step ran ahead of matched swap rates by about 15 to 25 basis points and of government bond yields by about 28 to 33; whether NAB priced off mid-September levels is not known. On these tests the evidence does not show a money grab on fixed loans. It does not show pure cost pass-through either: the noise band in this test is unmeasured, and NAB’s pricing day is unknown.
Credit cards: the rises are large; they were public for NAB’s Rewards and frequent flyer cards two months before the September decision. ANZ and Westpac also raised card purchase rates around the same date, Westpac by more, on Finder’s figure for its old rate; CBA’s card fees page, and its key facts sheet stamped “Correct as at 29 September 2026”, show 20.99 per cent on its Low Fee, Smart and Ultimate cards. Canstar linked NAB’s rewards card changes, which include fees and earn rates, to the Reserve Bank’s surcharge ban and cut to the interchange cap; NAB’s page mentions neither. THE RORT ran no cost test and draws no conclusion.
Savers: the open point. As at 14:23 AEDT on 4 October NAB had not changed its headline savings rates, while CBA, Westpac and Macquarie had announced rises, and so had NAB’s own Ubank, from 6 October. In each earlier rise this year NAB’s savings rise took effect on its home loan day; this time that day is 9 October, and NAB has not said publicly what it will do. THE RORT will re-read NAB’s pages on 9 October and record what it finds.
15What would settle it, and NAB’s reply
The dates. 6 October: Ubank’s savings rise takes effect 20. 8 October: Ubank’s variable home loan rise 20. 9 October: NAB’s variable rise takes effect, and THE RORT re-reads NAB’s savings, term deposit and fixed-rate pages 1. 5 November: NAB’s results for the year to 30 September, which cannot show the effect of the September rise on its loan and deposit pricing. 10 December: NAB’s annual general meeting. 5 May 2027: NAB’s results for the half to March 2027, the first full half that can 51. The Reserve Bank’s next decision is on THE RORT’s watch in Four rises in 2026.
On 2 October THE RORT sent NAB questions for another article in this series, not yet published, including its decision on savings and term deposits, and asked for a reply by Thursday 8 October. The new questions below had not been sent when this article was published on 4 October. The date and time they are sent will be recorded here. They ask for a reply by 5 pm AEDT on Thursday 8 October 2026, and any reply will be added in full where it is short, or quoted fairly with a link to the full text, as a dated update, whenever it arrives.
The questions: 1. On what date NAB’s first fixed-rate rise took effect. 2. Whether a customer who re-fixes pays the same rate as a new customer, and on which loan to value band. 3. Which funding benchmark, and which pricing date, the 2 October rise reflects, given THE RORT’s figures that, measured from 23 September, it ran ahead of matched swap rates by about 15 to 25 basis points and of government bond yields by about 28 to 33. 4. Whether NAB will change any savings or term deposit rate after the 29 September rise, and from when (NAB was also asked this on 2 October); and what share of its Reward Saver accounts earned the bonus rate in recent months, given that all of the 5.00 per cent except the 0.01 base rate is a conditional bonus, that across the four 2026 rises the cash rate is up 1.00 point while, as at 14:23 AEDT on 4 October, five days after the fourth decision, its bonus rate is up 0.85 (all of it from the first three rises, which totalled 0.75), its base rate is unchanged and its iSaver standard rate is up 0.40, and the ACCC’s 2023 market-wide finding on bonus interest. 5. The dates of its September term deposit changes. 6. Whether its 31 March estimate of a replicating-portfolio tailwind still stands, and what it expects the 2026 rises to do to its margin in FY27; and whether THE RORT’s reading of its March 2026 half margin bridge is correct. 7. When it told each group of cardholders of the 1 October changes, and whether any part of them is linked to the cash rate or to the Reserve Bank’s card surcharge and interchange changes, given that the 1.50 and 0.50 point rises are larger than any cash rate move since February 2024. 8. Which variable home loans the 0.25 rise covers, whether new and existing customers are treated alike, and whether any business, overdraft or personal loan variable rate will change. 9. Whether NAB wishes to respond to The Nightly’s report of a broker survey rating it among the least competitive majors, and to Canstar’s reading that its fixed rises suggest it is factoring in a further rate rise, set beside its own economists’ forecast of a hold and the market odds of about 20 per cent for a November rise. 10. Whether NAB wishes to respond to THE RORT’s report that as at 3 October it was the only big four bank to have moved fixed rates after the decision and, on figures whose bases differ, had the highest one-year rate of the four, by 0.01; to Yahoo Finance’s report that it was the only one to have raised them twice in just over two weeks; and to THE RORT’s arithmetic on repayments and on the gap between its two-year rate and the two-year bond yield. 11. Whether NAB wishes to respond to the ACCC’s 2020 finding on the big four’s variable rate rises in mid-2018 to early 2019, which this article recalls as a finding about that period. If NAB believes any statement of fact here is wrong, THE RORT will correct it with a dated note.
If it’s a rort, we cover it.
- Review: one year after publicationThe authored watch rows suppress this article's yearly review cadence; this row replaces it.
Read the desk note
REVIEW 4 October 2027 (case: THE INFLATION RORT, article 24). Re-read this article against the record a year on: every NAB rate, the funding test and its benchmarks, the savings position, NAB's replies, and every item marked as not verified on 4 October 2026. NEXT DATE: none set.
- Watch: NAB half year results, the first full half after the September riseNAB's results for the half to 31 March 2027, the first full half that can show the September 2026 rise in its loan and deposit pricing.
Read the desk note
WATCH 5 May 2027 (case: THE INFLATION RORT, article 24). NAB's financial calendar lists its half year results announcement for this date (subject to change). The March 2027 half is the first full half that can show the effect of the September 2026 rise on NAB's loan and deposit pricing. Check the group margin and its bridge against the March 2026 half (1.81 per cent; lending margin minus 4 basis points, replicating portfolios plus 3), and what NAB says about deposit pricing after the rise. Add a dated update to article 24. NEXT DATE: 4 October 2027, yearly review.
- Watch: NAB annual general meetingListed on NAB's financial calendar; a public venue for questions on savings and fixed-rate pricing.
Read the desk note
WATCH 10 December 2026 (case: THE INFLATION RORT, article 24). NAB's financial calendar lists its annual general meeting for this date (dates subject to change). Check the chair's and chief executive's addresses and any shareholder questions on deposit rates, fixed-rate pricing or margins after the 2026 rises, and record anything said, with its source. NEXT DATE: 5 May 2027, NAB half year results.
- Watch: NAB full year results for FY26NAB's results for the year to 30 September 2026, listed on its financial calendar (dates subject to change).
Read the desk note
WATCH 5 November 2026 (case: THE INFLATION RORT, article 24). NAB's financial calendar lists its 2026 full year results announcement for this date and says its dates are subject to change. The result covers the year to 30 September and so cannot show the effect of the September 2026 rate rise on NAB's loan and deposit pricing. Check: the group net interest margin for the half to September 2026 against 1.81 per cent for the March half; the margin bridge (lending margin, deposits, replicating portfolios, Markets and Treasury); whether the words "Benefit of rising rates" recur, and what replicating-portfolio guidance NAB gives for FY27; any statement on fixed-rate or savings pricing. Add a dated update to article 24. NEXT DATE: 10 December 2026, NAB annual general meeting.
- Watch: NAB's variable rise takes effect; re-read NAB's savings, term deposit and fixed-rate pagesNAB's 0.25 variable home loan rise takes effect. In each earlier 2026 rise NAB's savings rise took effect on the same day.
Read the desk note
WATCH 9 October 2026 (case: THE INFLATION RORT, article 24). NAB's release and customer notice say its variable home loan rates rise 0.25 per cent a year from Friday 9 October 2026, and NAB's terms say variable rate changes appear on its website on the day they commence. Re-read and record, each with its page stamp and the time read: NAB's home loan interest rates page (did the variable tables move by 0.25, and on which products?); its savings page and deposit indicator rates; its term deposit rate schedule; its fixed-rate page and indicator rate sheet (any fixed change since 2 October; if so, rerun the funding test against RBA tables F2 and F17 and the BlueGamma swap series); and its interest-rates news index. In February, March and May NAB's savings rise took effect on its home loan day; record whether it did this time, without inferring any reason NAB has not given. Add a dated update to article 24, and to articles 14 and 5 if NAB's savings rates move. NEXT DATE: 5 November 2026, NAB's FY26 results.
- Follow-up: NAB's reply date; Ubank's variable home loan rise takes effectThe reply date asked of NAB for THE RORT's eleven questions (if sent by 5 October) and for its 2 October email, and Ubank's 0.25 rise to its Neat and Flex standard variable rates.
Read the desk note
FOLLOW-UP 8 October 2026 (case: THE INFLATION RORT, article 24). If THE RORT's questions to NAB were sent by 5 October, replies were requested by 5 pm AEDT today; add any reply to article 24 in full, or quoted fairly with a link, as a dated update, or record that none had arrived by the deadline, with the send time. If they were sent later, the reply date is 5 pm AEDT on the third business day after sending. THE RORT's 2 October email to NAB, for another article in this series, also asked for a reply by Thursday 8 October, including NAB's decision on savings and term deposits; add any answer on savings or term deposits to article 24 too. Ubank's home loan pages say it will increase its Neat and Flex standard variable home loan rates by 0.25 per cent a year effective 8 October 2026; check whether its loan to value band rates move too. NEXT DATE: 9 October 2026, NAB's variable rise takes effect.
- Follow-up: NAB's savings pages, as Ubank's savings rise takes effectUbank's Everyday Bonus Rate rises to 5.35 per cent and its Welcome Bonus Rate to 6.10 per cent from 6 October, on Ubank's own page; re-read NAB's.
Read the desk note
FOLLOW-UP 6 October 2026 (case: THE INFLATION RORT, article 24). Ubank's savings page says: "From 6 October 2026, our Everyday Bonus Rate will increase to 5.35% p.a. Customers receiving our Welcome Bonus Rate will earn 6.10% p.a. from that date." Check that Ubank's page shows the new rates in force. Re-read NAB's savings page, its deposit indicator rates (last stamped effective 28 September 2026), its term deposit rate schedule and its interest-rates news index; record any savings or term deposit change with the page stamp, its effective date and the time read, and add a dated update to articles 24 and 14. NEXT DATE: 8 October 2026, NAB's reply date and Ubank's variable home loan rise.
- Record: article 24 published, 4 October 2026Published four days after NAB announced its 0.25 variable rise: what NAB raised above the 0.25 (fixed and card rates), what it had not raised as at 14:23 AEDT on 4 October (savings), the funding test and the law.
Read the desk note
PUBLISHED 4 October 2026 (case: THE INFLATION RORT, article 24).
FINDING. NAB's variable home loan rise is 0.25, effective 9 October, the same as CBA, Westpac and ANZ. Its fixed rates for new loans rose 0.35 to 0.47 points (owner-occupier principal and interest), 0.30 to 0.45 (investor) and 0.15 to 0.25 (owner-occupier interest only) in two steps between 14 September and 2 October. Against matched swap rates from NAB's 22 July repricing the owner-occupier rises came to between 8 basis points under and 11 over by term (about 14 under to 23 over across start dates from 21 July to 31 August); against government bond yields from mid-July to mid-August starts, about 0 to 11 over. The second step ran ahead of both benchmarks over the days between NAB's two moves, from 23 September. NAB's card purchase rates rise 0.50 to 1.50 from each customer's first statement after 1 October, public for its Rewards and frequent flyer cards by 28 July. As at 14:23 AEDT on 4 October NAB's headline savings rates (Reward Saver 5.00 per cent, 0.01 base plus 4.99 bonus; iSaver 5.25 introductory then 1.65) were unchanged since 17 September; in each earlier 2026 rise NAB's savings rise took effect on its home loan day, ten days after the decision. On THE RORT's tests the evidence does not show a money grab on home loans; savers are the open point.
STILL OPEN. NAB's savings and term deposit decision; the effective date of NAB's first fixed rise; whether re-fixing customers pay the new-loan rates; which variable products the 0.25 covers; the dates of NAB's September term deposit changes; when Low Fee and Low Rate cardholders were told of the 1 October changes; whether NAB's 31 March replicating-portfolio estimate still stands; swap data for 2 October; the noise band of the funding test. THE RORT's eleven new questions to NAB had not been sent at publication. On 2 October THE RORT sent NAB questions for another article in this series, not yet published, including its decision on savings and term deposits, and asked for a reply by Thursday 8 October.
NEXT DATE: 6 October 2026, Ubank's savings rise takes effect; re-read NAB's savings and deposit pages.
- NAB: news release, “NAB announces home loan interest rate changes”, headed “30 September” and listed as 30 September 2026 in NAB’s interest-rates news index, https://www.nab.com.au/news/interest-rates/nab-announces-home-loan-interest-rate-changes, fetched 12:40 AEST, 3 October 2026, and re-read unchanged at 13:50 AEDT, 4 October 2026. “Following the Reserve Bank of Australia’s decision to increase the official cash rate by 0.25% per annum, NAB will increase its variable home loan interest rates by 0.25% p.a.” “The new rates will take effect from October 9.” “This change applies to NAB standard variable home loan rates.” “NAB also regularly reviews its savings and deposit rates.” NAB customer notice, https://www.nab.com.au/customer-notices/rba-announcement, fetched 12:40 AEST, 3 October 2026, and re-read unchanged at 13:50 AEDT, 4 October 2026: “NAB will increase the variable home loan interest rates by 0.25% p.a., effective Friday 9 October 2026.” “View these rate changes on the NAB app and internet banking from Friday 9 October 2026”.
- Reserve Bank of Australia: Media Release 2026-27, Monetary Policy Decision, 29 September 2026, https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2026/mr-26-27.html, fetched 12:23 AEST, 3 October 2026: “the Board decided to increase the cash rate target by 25 basis points to 4.60 per cent.” “global energy prices are now much higher than had been assumed in the August forecasts.” Cash rate series in Table F1, https://www.rba.gov.au/statistics/tables/csv/f1-data.csv, fetched at the same time: 4.35 per cent from 6 May 2026 through 29 September 2026, and 4.60 per cent on 30 September 2026.
- Yahoo Finance (Sophie Venz), published 4:47 pm AEST, 2 October 2026, https://au.finance.yahoo.com/news/nab-delivers-hefty-hike-in-second-rate-increase-in-15-days-a-very-different-market-064747723.html, fetched 12:22 AEST, 3 October 2026. “It brings the increases well above the standard 0.25 hike from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA)”. Canstar’s Sally Tindall: “NAB’s lowest two-year fixed rate has risen by 0.47 in just over two weeks, suggesting the bank is now factoring in yet another rate hike in the months ahead.” “With the big banks’ fixed rates now largely above 6.50 per cent, borrowers looking to lock it in are facing a very different market to the one we had a few months ago,” Tindall said. Photo caption: “NAB is the only big four bank to have raised its rates twice in just over two weeks.” “It’s the highest one year fixed rate of all the big four banks.” On CBA and Westpac: “the largest jump from Commonwealth Bank a few weeks ago, when its rates were hiked by up to 0.48 per cent. Westpac followed closely at the same time, with increases up to 0.45 per cent.” (Canstar’s own tables date Westpac’s rise to 18 September, before CBA’s on 22 September.)
- NAB: fixed rate home loan page, https://www.nab.com.au/personal/home-loans/nab-fixed-rate-home-loan, fetched 12:40 AEST, 3 October 2026, and re-read unchanged at 13:50 AEDT, 4 October 2026: “Information and rates are correct as at 2 October 2026 and are subject to change.” Owner-occupier principal and interest, every loan to value band to 80%, one to five years: 6.79, 6.81, 6.92, 6.92 and 6.94% p.a.; investor principal and interest 6.84, 6.89, 6.97, 6.97 and 6.99; owner-occupier and investor interest only 6.94, 6.99, 7.07, 7.07 and 7.09 (loan to value ratio 60% or less). Offer box: “This offer is for new owner occupier ... principal and interest home loans where the customer takes a 2 year fixed rate NAB Tailored Home Loan and has a deposit of 20% or more of the property value (Maximum permitted loan to value ratio of 80%).” The page describes “fixed interest rates that won’t change during the fixed term”. Web-archive copies of the same page: 15 September 2026, https://web.archive.org/web/20260915124521id_/https://www.nab.com.au/personal/home-loans/nab-fixed-rate-home-loan, fetched 12:57 AEST, 3 October 2026, stamped “correct as at 14 September 2026” (owner-occupier principal and interest 6.44, 6.34, 6.49, 6.49 and 6.49; owner-occupier interest only 6.79, 6.74, 6.89, 6.89, 6.89; investor interest only 6.64, 6.54, 6.69, 6.69, 6.69); 25 September 2026, https://web.archive.org/web/20260925123138id_/https://www.nab.com.au/personal/home-loans/nab-fixed-rate-home-loan, fetched 12:50 AEST, 3 October 2026, stamped “correct as at 23 September 2026” (owner-occupier principal and interest 6.59, 6.49, 6.64, 6.64 and 6.64). Every one of the page’s 80 fixed rates (four products, five terms, four loan to value bands) is 0.15 higher on the 25 September copy than on the 15 September copy, and the band above 80% sits 0.10 above the others on all three dates (THE RORT’s comparison). No archived copy exists between 25 September and 2 October.
- NAB: “Credit card changes from 1 October 2026”, https://www.nab.com.au/personal/credit-cards/card-updates, fetched 12:45 AEST, 3 October 2026, and 15:01 AEDT, 4 October 2026. “We’re making some changes to your NAB credit card, effective 1 October 2026.” “The variable purchase rate will increase from 20.99% p.a. to 22.49% p.a.” (under six card headings: Low Fee Card and Low Fee Platinum; Qantas Plus; Qantas Rewards Premium; Qantas Rewards Signature; Rewards Platinum; Rewards Signature). NAB Low Rate Card: “The variable purchase rate will increase from 13.49% p.a. to 13.99% p.a.” Those cards and the Low Rate Platinum: “The variable cash advance rate will increase from 21.74% p.a. to 22.99% p.a.” “Any change to your interest rates will apply from the opening date of your next statement after 1 October 2026. It will apply to the relevant parts of the outstanding balance that you owe”. “Most changes require us to give you at least 30 days’ notice, which we have done.” Rewards Signature: “The monthly card fee of $35 will be changing to an annual card fee of $395 p.a.” The page contains neither “surcharge” nor “interchange”.
- Australian Frequent Flyer forum thread, https://www.australianfrequentflyer.com.au/community/threads/nab-credit-card-updates-1-october-2026.123772/, fetched 12:45 AEST, 3 October 2026, and 15:01 AEDT, 4 October 2026. Post #1, dated 28 July 2026, 8:43 pm AEST, pastes NAB’s wording for the NAB Qantas Rewards Signature Card: “The variable purchase rate will increase from 20.99% p.a. to 22.49% p.a. The variable cash advance rate will increase from 21.74% p.a. to 22.99% p.a.” A forum post, not a NAB publication.
- NAB: savings accounts page, https://www.nab.com.au/personal/bank-accounts/savings-accounts, fetched 14:23 AEDT, 4 October 2026 (and 12:41 AEST, 3 October 2026, with the same figures). Reward Saver: “Earn an ongoing 0.01% p.a. variable base rate. When you qualify for the bonus rate, you’ll earn a total of 5.00% p.a.”; “You’ll earn the 4.99% p.a. variable bonus rate for the month”. iSaver: “Earn an introductory rate of 5.25% p.a for the first 4 months, then a standard variable rate of 1.65% p.a, even if you withdraw.” Deposit indicator rates, https://www.nab.com.au/personal/interest-rates-fees-and-charges/indicator-rates-deposit-products, same time: “This information was prepared on 25 September 2026”; “All rates are effective, 28 September 2026”; Reward Saver “Variable base rate 0.01% p.a. Variable bonus rate 4.99% p.a. Total interest rate 5.00% p.a.” NAB newsroom, https://www.nab.com.au/news, same time: the newest items are dated 30 September 2026, and none concerns savings or deposit rates. NAB interest-rates news index, https://news.nab.com.au/tag/interest-rates, same time: newest item dated 30 September 2026 (the home loan release), then 27 August 2026. As read at 14:23 AEDT on 4 October, none of these pages showed a savings or term deposit rate change after 29 September.
- NAB savings rate history. Archived copies of NAB’s savings accounts page: 27 March 2026, https://web.archive.org/web/20260327050611id_/https://www.nab.com.au/personal/bank-accounts/savings-accounts, fetched 15:02 AEDT, 4 October 2026: “NAB will increase personal savings rates by up to 0.25% p.a., effective Friday 27 March 2026.” 22 May 2026, https://web.archive.org/web/20260522033308id_/https://www.nab.com.au/personal/bank-accounts/savings-accounts, fetched 14:41 AEDT, 4 October 2026: “NAB will increase personal savings rates by up to 0.35% p.a., effective Friday 15 May 2026.” Reward Saver: “the total rate will increase by 0.35% p.a. to 5.00% p.a.” 27 May, 11 July and 10 August 2026 (web-archive timestamps 20260527074905, 20260711153654 and 20260810105443 of the same page), fetched 14:43 to 14:45 AEDT, 4 October 2026: Reward Saver 5.00% (0.01% base plus 4.99% bonus) and iSaver 5.25% introductory then 1.65%. 17 September 2026, https://web.archive.org/web/20260917005335id_/https://www.nab.com.au/personal/bank-accounts/savings-accounts, fetched 13:06 AEST, 3 October 2026: every rate figure identical to 3 October. NAB news item dated 13 February 2026, https://www.nab.com.au/news/nab-updates/nab-increases-savings-rates, fetched 14:23 AEDT, 4 October 2026: “NAB will increase savings rates by up to 0.25% from Friday, February 13.” “The Total Reward Saver rate will increase by 0.25% p.a. to 4.40% p.a., comprising a variable base rate of 0.01% and the variable bonus rate which will increase by 0.25% to 4.39%”. NAB home loan releases, each fetched 14:23 AEDT, 4 October 2026: 3 February 2026, https://www.nab.com.au/news/interest-rates/change-to-nab-home-loan-rate: “NAB’s standard variable home loan interest rate will rise by 0.25% p.a. from 13 February 2026.”; 17 March 2026, https://www.nab.com.au/news/interest-rates/nab-announces-change-to-home-loan-interest-rates: “The changes will come into effect from Friday, 27 March 2026.”; 5 May 2026, https://www.nab.com.au/news/interest-rates/nab-announces-change-to-home-loan-interest-rates-2: “The new rates will take effect from May 15.” The 4.14 per cent bonus rate before February is THE RORT’s arithmetic (4.39 less 0.25); changes between archived copies cannot be ruled out.
- Variable rate announcements after the 29 September decision (CBA, Westpac and ANZ on 30 September; Macquarie’s page is undated), fetched 12:35 AEST, 3 October 2026. CBA, https://www.commbank.com.au/news/rate-announcement.html: “we’re increasing our variable home loan interest rates by 0.25% p.a. effective Friday 9 October 2026”. Westpac release, https://www.westpac.com.au/about-westpac/media/media-releases/2026/30-september/: “Westpac will increase home loan variable interest rates by 0.25% p.a. for new and existing customers, effective 9 October.” ANZ release, https://www.anz.com.au/newsroom/media/2026/september/anz-changes-variable-home-loan-rates/: “Variable interest rates across ANZ’s Australian home loans will increase by 0.25% p.a., effective 9 October 2026.” Macquarie, https://www.macquarie.com.au/home-loans/home-loan-rates.html: “we’re increasing our variable home loan reference rates by 0.25% p.a., effective 15 October”.
- Rate trackers and two lenders, fetched 12:35 AEST, 3 October 2026. Savings.com.au, “Updated 2 Oct 2026”, https://www.savings.com.au/news/rba-rate-hike-sep-26: 44 lender entries read “September 2026 rate hike: 25 basis points”, and 28 more are listed as “interest rate hike (pending)” (THE RORT’s count); NAB’s entry: “September 2026 rate hike: 25 basis points / Applies to: Variable-rate home loans / Effective date: 9 October / Announcement date: 30 September”. Finder, “Updated Sep 30, 2026”, https://www.finder.com.au/rba-cash-rate/sept-2026-cash-rate-increase: 46 lender rows, each “25 basis points” (THE RORT’s count). Australian Broker, 2 October 2026, https://www.brokernews.com.au/news/breaking-news/granite-launches-40year-home-loan-and-holds-back-on-rate-rise-290095.aspx: “Instead of matching the rise, Granite will add 0.05 percentage points to standard investment loans with an LVR of up to 80%. It will add 0.15 percentage points to standard owner-occupied home loans.” (no effective date for the rate change is given). Bendigo Bank, https://www.bendigobank.com.au/personal/home-loans/rates/rate-changes/: “Our Home Equity Line of Credit products, which are no longer available for sale, will increase by 0.50% p.a.”
- Reserve Bank of Australia: Bulletin, “Developments in Banks’ Funding Costs and Lending Rates” (Hutchinson, Manning and Searle), 28 May 2026, https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/bulletin/2026/may/developments-in-banks-funding-costs-and-lending-rates.html, fetched 12:23 AEST, 3 October 2026, and 13:52 AEDT, 4 October 2026. “Data on banks’ funding costs and lending rates are currently available up to March 2026.” “New fixed mortgage rates declined through most of 2025 and began to increase around the end of 2025, following movements in tenor-matched swap rates, which they typically reference.” “Banks fully passed through cash rate reductions to lending rates on new variable-rate housing loans in 2025 and have increased lending rates broadly in line with the cash rate in early 2026.” “Spreads between lending rates and the cash rate have remained at their narrowest levels in almost two decades”. Banks’ net interest margins “stabilised in 2025 around historical lows.” “the spread between banks’ lending rates and funding costs has widened, though it remains narrower than pre-pandemic levels.” Table 1, major banks, March 2026: “Total funding costs 3.76 −47 ... Hedging costs −15 For reference: cash rate target 4.10 −25”. “actual funding costs may vary from our estimates”; “may indicate that we have over-estimated the recent decline in hedging costs”. “Deposit costs declined by less than the decline in the cash rate over 2025 and rose by less than the cash rate as it was increased in early 2026.” “On average, at-call deposit rates have adjusted by less than the cash rate.” “some banks have said that stronger competition for deposits has weighed on profitability”; “there has been little evidence of this at the aggregate level”. Replicating hedges “transform the fixed (or zero) interest rate payments on banks’ liabilities into floating rate payments”. Conclusion: “the estimated spread between lending rates and funding costs has risen from low levels. By contrast, banks’ NIMs remain around historical lows.”
- Swap rates. BlueGamma, BBSW swap rate pages, https://www.bluegamma.io/bbsy-swap-rates/5-year-bbsw-swap-rate, https://www.bluegamma.io/bbsy-swap-rates/4-year-bbsw-swap-rate, https://www.bluegamma.io/bbsy-swap-rates/6-month-bbsw-swap-rate and https://www.bluegamma.io/bbsy-swap-rates, fetched 13:52 AEDT, 4 October 2026, with daily points for every business day from 6 October 2025 to 1 October 2026: “Daily closes of the 5 year BBSW swap rate: the last 10 business days with day-on-day changes.” “01 Oct 2026 5.36% +13 bp 30 Sept 2026 5.23% -5 bp 29 Sept 2026 5.28% -6 bp 28 Sept 2026 5.34% +2 bp 25 Sept 2026 5.32% 0 bp 24 Sept 2026 5.32% +11 bp 23 Sept 2026 5.21%”. “Last update: October 1, 2026” at “08:00 (London)”; “This is yesterday’s close”. ASX, BBSW 10-day rolling history, https://www.asx.com.au/data/benchmarks/bbsw-10-day-rolling-history.pdf, fetched 13:52 AEDT, 4 October 2026: “01/10/2026 4.5510 4.6506 4.7644 4.8692 4.9858 5.1336” (no 2 October row). The one- to three-year swap figures are THE RORT’s estimates, interpolated between the 6-month and 4-year series; against published overnight-index swap rates over three windows they were within 3 basis points, and against weekly published one- and three-year swap rates within about 2 basis points in most weeks and up to 7 in one. Every difference between NAB’s rises and swap moves is THE RORT’s arithmetic.
- Reserve Bank of Australia: Table F2, government bond yields, https://www.rba.gov.au/statistics/tables/csv/f2-data.csv, and Table F17, zero-coupon yields, https://www.rba.gov.au/statistics/tables/csv/f17-yields.csv, fetched 12:23 AEST, 3 October 2026, and 13:52 AEDT, 4 October 2026; both published 2 October 2026, with 30 September 2026 the last row. F2 last row: “30-Sep-2026,4.942,4.922,4.983,5.344,2.942”. Two-year yield: 4.539 (21 July), 4.529 (13 August), 5.000 (16 September), 5.029, 5.018 and 5.057 (24, 25 and 28 September) and 4.942 (30 September). Table F17’s notes: “The estimates in this table are based on the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA)’s assessment of closing bond yields on Australian Government Securities.” Changes, gaps and differences from NAB’s rates are THE RORT’s arithmetic from these tables.
- NAB’s 22 July fixed-rate cut. Savings.com.au, news article published 22 July 2026, https://www.savings.com.au/news/nab-cuts-fixed-home-loan-rates, fetched 12:28 AEST, 3 October 2026, and 13:52 AEDT, 4 October 2026: “a cut of 20 basis points” to “6.34% p.a.” (two-year owner-occupier); “The best new fixed rate for investors is 6.44% p.a.” (principal and interest, two years); “Investor fixed home loans for both P&I and interest-only (IO) repayments have been cut across the board by 15 basis points.” Canstar, news article of 22 July 2026, https://www.canstar.com.au/news/nab-cuts-fixed-rates-ahead-of-rba-august-decision/, fetched 12:28 AEST, 3 October 2026, and 13:52 AEDT, 4 October 2026, table: “1-year 6.49% 6.44% -0.05 / 2-year 6.54% 6.34% -0.20”. No source read shows NAB’s three- to five-year rates on 22 July.
- NAB: indicator rates for home lending, https://www.nab.com.au/content/dam/nabrwd/documents/rates-and-fees/loans/indicator-rates-for-home-lending.pdf, fetched 12:40 AEST, 3 October 2026, and 13:50 AEDT, 4 October 2026 (identical files): “Effective 2 October 2026.” “Variable Rate for Home Loans (Standard Variable Rate) 8.77%”, the only row so labelled. “Interest rates may be the same as the Indicator rates or the sum of the indicator rate plus/minus a margin as detailed in your letter of offer.”
- Savings.com.au (Bea Garcia), news article published 2:00 pm, 17 September 2026, https://www.savings.com.au/news/nab-lifts-fixed-home-loan-rates-sept-2026, fetched 12:40 AEST, 3 October 2026: “NAB has lifted fixed home loan rates by 15 basis points across a wide range of owner-occupier and investor products.” “every owner-occupier principal-and-interest fixed rate rising by 15 bps.” “markets price a 76% chance of an RBA rate hike this month”. The outlet’s own explanation, not NAB’s: “fixed rates are heavily influenced by wholesale funding markets and expectations about future interest rates.” NAB states no date for this rise.
- Savings.com.au, news article published 2 October 2026, https://www.savings.com.au/news/nab-ups-fixed-home-loans-rates, fetched 12:40 AEST, 3 October 2026: “NAB has increased fixed home loans rates by up to 32 basis points.” “The move comes a week before the bank’s 25bp variable mortgage hike takes effect on 9 October.” “NAB is the first of the big four banks to tinker its fixed mortgage products after the Reserve Bank’s September meeting”. The outlet’s reading, not NAB’s: “The latest increases in fixed mortgage products suggest funding costs and expectations for a higher-for-longer rate environment continue to influence pricing decisions”.
- NAB: indicator rates for business lending, https://www.nab.com.au/important-information/business/interest-rates-fees-charges, fetched 12:45 AEST, 3 October 2026, and 13:50 AEDT, 4 October 2026 (unchanged): “Indicator rates for business lending / Monday, 28 September 2026”; “All rates and underwriting fees are effective, 28 September 2026 and are subject to change at any time.”; “Business overdraft prime / Benchmark 10.72% p.a.” NAB release of 13 August 2025, https://www.nab.com.au/news/interest-rates/nab-reduces-interest-rates-on-business-loans-2, fetched 13:50 AEDT, 4 October 2026: “New and existing business customers with a variable rate NAB Business Options Loan or a NAB Business Overdraft product will have their interest rate reduced by 0.25% p.a. effective from Monday 25 August.”
- NAB: interest-rates news index, https://news.nab.com.au/tag/interest-rates, fetched 12:40 AEST, 3 October 2026, and 13:50 AEDT, 4 October 2026 (unchanged). Newest item: “NAB announces home loan interest rate changes”, “30 September 2026”; the next is dated “27 August 2026”: “NAB now expects the RBA to increase the cash rate by 25bp in September to 4.6%.” No fixed-rate, savings, term deposit or business-loan release between 1 September and 4 October. The 2026 items include “NAB increases savings rates”, 13 February 2026, and no business-loan release; business-loan releases appear for the cuts of 21 May and 13 August 2025.
- Ubank pages, read in a browser between 1:55 pm and 1:56 pm AEDT, 4 October 2026. Savings account, https://www.ubank.com.au/banking/savings-account: “From 6 October 2026, our Everyday Bonus Rate will increase to 5.35% p.a. Customers receiving our Welcome Bonus Rate will earn 6.10% p.a. from that date.” (the page body still showed 5.85 and 5.10 per cent, “Rates shown current as at 12 May 2026”). Home loans, https://www.ubank.com.au/home-loans and https://www.ubank.com.au/home-loans/interest-rates-and-fees: “We’ll be increasing our Neat and Flex standard variable home loan rates by 0.25% p.a. effective from 8 October 2026.” Archived copy of the rates page, 30 September 2026, 8:55 am AEST, https://web.archive.org/web/20260929225503id_/https://www.ubank.com.au/home-loans/interest-rates-and-fees, fetched 13:52 AEDT, 4 October 2026: the same banner read “We’re currently reviewing the recent decision from the RBA. We’ll share updates very soon.”; page footer: “Products issued by Ubank, part of National Australia Bank Limited ABN 12 004 044 937”.
- NAB: home loan interest rates page, https://www.nab.com.au/personal/interest-rates-fees-and-charges/home-loan-interest-rates, fetched 13:50 AEDT, 4 October 2026: “The interest rates shown on this page are NAB’s current fixed and variable home loan interest rates for new loans”; “If you already have a NAB home loan, please reach out to us directly”.
- NAB: Home Loan General Terms, the edition on NAB’s site on 4 October 2026 (footer “©2024 National Australia Bank Limited ... A164714-1024”), https://www.nab.com.au/content/dam/nabrwd/documents/terms-and-conditions/loans/home-loan-general-terms.pdf, fetched 13:50 AEDT, 4 October 2026. Benefits of fixed rates: “Any rise in interest rates won’t be passed onto you while your rate is fixed”. Fixed interest rates: “automatically change to the applicable variable rate, unless you choose to apply for another fixed rate period and we agree to it”. Section 2.4: “Variable rate changes will be available directly on the NAB website on the day the change commences”. Section 2.5: “our applicable advertised fixed indicator rate that’s published on the day the fixed rate period begins (or the most recent advertised rate if nothing has been published on that day)”; “We’ll then apply any applicable margins outlined in your Offer Letter”. Fixed rate expiry help page (“Information is correct as at 19 April 2024”), https://www.nab.com.au/help-support/personal-banking/manage-home-loan/fixed-rate-expiry, same day: “When your fixed rate period ends, your home loan will automatically roll onto a variable rate, unless you arrange to re-fix your loan before your fixed rate expires.” “Approximately one month before your fixed rate period expires, we’ll send you a reminder letter where you can find your new interest rate.” Rate Lock page, https://www.nab.com.au/personal/home-loans/nab-fixed-rate-home-loan/rate-lock, same day: “Rate Lock is not available when: / Rolling from an existing fixed rate term on to a new fixed rate term / Fixing an existing variable rate home loan”. None of these pages defines the “applicable advertised fixed indicator rate” or gives a re-fix rate table.
- Australian Broker (brokernews.com.au; Mina Martin), 17 September 2026, https://www.brokernews.com.au/news/breaking-news/nab-and-anz-lift-fixed-rates-as-rba-decision-day-draws-near-289987.aspx, fetched 12:23 AEST and 12:35 AEST, 3 October 2026: “ANZ’s changes were similarly broad-based, with its two-year fixed rate jumping 0.20 percentage points to 6.49%.” “CBA’s full-year results show just 7% of new lending in the six months to June 2026 went to fixed-rate products”.
- NAB: help page on interest and repayment changes, https://www.nab.com.au/help-support/personal-banking/manage-home-loan/interest-repayment-changes, fetched 13:50 AEDT, 4 October 2026: variable rates “change due to the many factors that impact our cost of funds. One of those factors is the official cash rate, which is set by the RBA.”
- ABC News live blog, 30 September 2026, https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-09-30/asx-markets-business-live-news/107210136, fetched 12:24 AEST, 3 October 2026: “money markets predict only a 20% chance of a November hike”; “The Australian government’s long-term borrowing rate has risen to its highest level in 15 years”; “The US government’s 10-year bond yield has jumped to its highest level since the global financial crisis”; Westpac’s chief economist Luci Ellis: “This is quite the turnaround from the 11 August meeting, where an extended period on hold looked to be the base case”.
- Reserve Bank of Australia: Statement on Monetary Policy, August 2026. Overview, https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/smp/2026/aug/overview.html, fetched 12:24 AEST, 3 October 2026: markets were pricing “about a 50 per cent chance of a cash rate increase by the end of the year”. Chapter on financial conditions, https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/smp/2026/aug/financial-conditions.html, fetched 13:52 AEDT, 4 October 2026: “Some lenders also reduced advertised fixed mortgage rates in June and July.” Full statement, https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/smp/2026/aug/pdf/statement-on-monetary-policy-2026-08.pdf, fetched 13:58 AEDT, 4 October 2026: the “cut-off for data used to prepare this Statement on Monetary Policy was 5 August 2026”.
- Mortgage Professional Australia (Mina Martin), 1 October 2026, https://www.mpamag.com/au/mortgage-industry/market-updates/cba-westpac-nab-anz-pass-rba-rate-rise-in-full/591867, fetched 12:24 AEST, 3 October 2026: “All four major banks will pass on the Reserve Bank’s (RBA) 0.25 percentage point cash rate increase in full.” “The big four are now evenly divided: Westpac and ANZ tip a November hike, while CBA and NAB expect a hold.”
- ABC News live blog, 2 October 2026, https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-10-02/asx-markets-business-news-live-updates/107136842, fetched 12:24 AEST, 3 October 2026. NAB’s statement, as quoted on the blog: “Fixed home loan rates are influenced by a range of factors, including wholesale funding costs and market conditions. Like other lenders, NAB regularly reviews its pricing and adjusts rates when required.” Post of 4:00 pm headed “NAB ‘strikes twice’ on mortgage holders with another round of rate hikes”; post of 4:42 pm: “NAB also quietly announced another rate rise on its fixed rate loans this afternoon, the second time it’s done that in just two weeks.”
- Trading Economics, Australia 3-year and 2-year bond yield pages, https://tradingeconomics.com/australia/3-year-note-yield and https://tradingeconomics.com/australia/2-year-note-yield, fetched 13:52 AEDT, 4 October 2026: “The yield on Australia 3 Year Bond Yield eased to 4.88% on October 2, 2026, marking a 0.10 percentage points decrease from the previous session.” “The yield on Australia 2 Year Bond Yield eased to 4.83% on October 2, 2026, marking a 0.16 percentage points decrease from the previous session.”, while the same page’s quote table reads “Australia 2Y 4.92 -0.081% 0.131% 1.408% Oct/02”. A different source from the Reserve Bank’s tables; indicative only.
- Canstar, news article of 18 September 2026, https://www.canstar.com.au/news/pile-on-for-fixed-rate-hikes-as-westpac-joins-the-club/, fetched 12:35 AEST, 3 October 2026: Westpac announced “increases to its lowest rates of up to 0.45 percentage points today”; owner-occupier fixed rates with a package, one to five years: 6.44 to 6.74%, 6.34 to 6.74%, 6.54 to 6.94%, 6.69 to 7.09% and 6.69 to 7.14%. Canstar lists St.George, Bank of Melbourne and BankSA among September fixed-rate hikers without giving the size of their rises.
- Canstar, news article of 22 September 2026, https://www.canstar.com.au/news/cba-hikes-fixed-rates-almost-2-standard-rba-hikes/, fetched 12:35 AEST, 3 October 2026: “CBA has today hiked fixed rates for its owner-occupier and investor loans for new customers, with increases of up to 0.48 percentage points.” One to five years: 6.49 to 6.78%, 6.34 to 6.82%, 6.59 to 6.89%, 6.64 to 6.89% and 6.79 to 6.94%. “16 lenders have now increased at least one fixed term in September”.
- Canstar, news article of 24 September 2026, https://www.canstar.com.au/news/macquarie-hikes-fixed-rates-twice-in-three-weeks/, fetched 12:35 AEST, 3 October 2026: on Macquarie, “These hikes of up to 0.20 percentage points add to the banks’ previous round of increases of up to 0.30 percentage points on 8 September.” “18 lenders have now increased at least one fixed term in September”: CBA, St George, Bank Australia, Westpac, ubank, Qudos Bank, NAB, Bank of Melbourne, Queensland Country Bank, ANZ, BankSA, Aussie, Macquarie, Great Southern Bank, Firstmac, ING, Horizon and loans.com.au.
- Australian Broker (brokernews.com.au), 29 September 2026, https://www.brokernews.com.au/news/breaking-news/fixed-rate-uturn-13-lenders-lift-312-rates-before-rba-call-290069.aspx, fetched 12:36 AEST, 3 October 2026: “Thirteen Australian lenders lifted a combined 312 fixed home loan rates in the past week ... averaged 0.26 percentage points.” Canstar’s Sally Tindall “described the week’s fixed rate moves as a sharp reversal.”
- Macquarie’s fixed rates. Savings.com.au, published 8 September 2026, https://www.savings.com.au/news/macquarie-fixed-home-loan-rate-increase, fetched 12:35 AEST, 3 October 2026: “lifted its fixed home loan interest rates by up to 30 basis points”; “The rate hikes come three months after Macquarie slashed its fixed home loan rates in June”. Canstar (Laine Gordon), “ANZ, Macquarie go against the tide, cutting fixed rates: could we be at the peak?”, 5 June 2026, https://www.canstar.com.au/news/anz-macquarie-cutting-fixed-rates/, fetched 12:36 AEST, 3 October 2026: Macquarie “has also made sweeping cuts to its fixed rates today”; “Macquarie fixed rate cuts Term Old rate from New rate from Change %-pts 1-year 6.44% 6.19% -0.25 2-year 6.54% 6.14% -0.40 3-year 6.59% 6.09% -0.50 4-year 6.64% 6.29% -0.35 5-year 6.74% 6.29% -0.45”; “Rates based on owner-occupier fixed-rate loans. LVR requirements apply.” Macquarie home loan rates page, https://www.macquarie.com.au/home-loans/home-loan-rates.html, fetched 12:35 AEST, 3 October 2026: “1 year fixed rate ° ≤ 70% 6.49% pa”; two to five years 6.59, 6.59, 6.64 and 6.64% pa. Archived copy of 13 August 2026, https://web.archive.org/web/20260813042020id_/https://www.macquarie.com.au/home-loans/home-loan-rates.html, fetched 12:43 AEST, 3 October 2026: “1 year fixed rate ° ≤ 70% 6.19% pa”; two to five years 6.14, 6.09, 6.29 and 6.29% pa. Differences from the pre-June rates are THE RORT’s arithmetic.
- Open-banking (Consumer Data Right) product data and bank pages, fetched 3 October 2026. The open-banking addresses below answer only a request that names a Consumer Data Right version, so a browser opening one directly shows an error message instead of the record. CBA, https://api.commbank.com.au/public/cds-au/v1/banking/products/cb2ddd5cbeb14704a9e20bcc2b78bb82 and the records de931b0938e044799563141810242f68, d7c55e295f504692a54360f0d2092c43, fd78e9e7382848d4b5e4386febef30a7 and e6ddbd53020f478b90caaddff85baecd at the same address, 12:40 AEST: lowest owner-occupier principal and interest fixed “rate”: “0.0678” (one year, “Owner Occupied with Principal and Interest repayment type with Package”), then 0.0682, 0.0689, 0.0689 and 0.0694. ANZ, https://api.anz/cds-au/v1/banking/products/3a86f9e4-1b41-4222-9091-5934d1fc9178, 12:41 AEST: “Fixed for 1 year, principal and interest, owner occupied, LVR ≤ 80%” 6.49, then 6.49, 6.64, 6.64 and 6.69; product record last updated 2026-09-16T14:01:00.000Z. NAB, https://openbank.api.nab.com.au/cds-au/v1/banking/products/65bcb7bd-e50c-4b65-b7d7-9d5abc089a5a, 12:40 AEST: “NAB Tailored Home Loan - 1 Year - LVR 60% or less, Principal & Interest” 6.79, then 6.81, 6.92, 6.92 and 6.94. Westpac product list, https://digital-api.westpac.com.au/cds-au/v1/banking/products?product-category=RESIDENTIAL_MORTGAGES&page-size=100, 12:44 AEST: “HLFixed | Fixed Rate Home Loan | 2026-09-18T00:27:20Z”. Westpac rates page, https://www.westpac.com.au/personal-banking/home-loans/all-interest-rates/, 12:36 AEST: “With Package # and LVR + discount 6.74% p.a.” (one year), then 6.74, 6.94, 7.09 and 7.14. A record’s last-updated stamp marks a change to the record, not necessarily to a rate; CBA’s records are restamped daily. Bases differ: CBA and Westpac with a package, NAB and ANZ to 80 per cent of the property’s value, Macquarie to 70 per cent.
- The Nightly, 24 September 2026, https://thenightly.com.au/business/rba-interest-rate-rise-threatens-cba-westpac-and-nab-profits-as-australian-mortgage-and-house-prices-weaken-c-22917765, fetched 12:24 AEST, 3 October 2026: “The major banks’ profit margins are set to fall”; on a Macquarie survey of brokers: “CBA and NAB are seen as the least competitive.”
- NAB: term deposit indicator rates, https://www.nab.com.au/personal/interest-rates-fees-and-charges/indicator-rates-selected-term-deposit-products, fetched 12:41 AEST, 3 October 2026, and 14:23 AEDT, 4 October 2026: “Rates effective as of Monday, 28 September 2026.” “This information was prepared on 25 September 2026”; “All rates are effective, 28 September 2026”; “12 months Interest paid at maturity 5.30% p.a.”; “9 months Interest paid at maturity 3.80% p.a.” Archived copy of 1 September 2026, https://web.archive.org/web/20260901041347id_/https://www.nab.com.au/personal/interest-rates-fees-and-charges/indicator-rates-selected-term-deposit-products, fetched 12:58 AEST, 3 October 2026: “Rates effective as of Monday, 31 August 2026”; “9 months | Interest paid at maturity | 5.00% p.a.”; 12 months 5.15%. Archived copy of NAB’s term deposit page of 17 September 2026, https://web.archive.org/web/20260917001847id_/https://www.nab.com.au/personal/bank-accounts/nab-term-deposit, fetched 13:06 AEST, 3 October 2026: 9 months 3.70%, 12 months 5.20%. Savings.com.au, 14 September 2026, https://www.savings.com.au/news/westpac-nab-ing-lift-term-deposit-rates: “NAB also announced a significant 1.30% cut to its nine-month rate on Monday, now 3.70% p.a.”; Savings.com.au, 21 September 2026, https://www.savings.com.au/news/big-four-banks-play-tag-on-top-term-deposit-rates: “NAB raised its top term deposit rate to 5.30% p.a. on Monday morning”, both fetched 12:41 AEST, 3 October 2026.
- ACCC: Retail deposits inquiry, final report (December 2023), https://www.accc.gov.au/system/files/Retail-deposits-inquiry-final-report.pdf, read in a browser at 12:40 AEST, 3 October 2026, printed page 1: “The cash rate is not paid directly by the RBA to banks, nor is it a regulated rate that banks must receive from borrowers or pay to depositors”. ACCC media release, 15 December 2023, https://www.accc.gov.au/media-release/bank-customers-missing-out-on-earning-more-interest-from-savings, read at 12:39 AEST, 3 October 2026: “on average 71 per cent of bonus interest accounts did not receive bonus interest in any given month.”
- Canstar, 18 March 2026, https://www.canstar.com.au/news/nab-hikes-variable-rates-stays-silent-for-savers/, fetched 14:23 AEDT, 4 October 2026: “NAB is yet to announce changes to its savings rates.” Canstar, 11 May 2026, https://www.canstar.com.au/news/banks-silent-on-savers-since-rba-hike/, fetched at the same time: “CBA, NAB and ANZ have all said their savings rates are under review.”
- Reserve Bank of Australia: cash rate target table, https://www.rba.gov.au/statistics/cash-rate/, fetched 14:23 AEDT and 15:01 AEDT, 4 October 2026, and Table A2, https://www.rba.gov.au/statistics/tables/csv/a2-data.csv, fetched 14:23 AEDT, 4 October 2026: “04-Feb-2026,+0.25,3.85”, “18-Mar-2026,+0.25,4.10”, “06-May-2026,+0.25,4.35”, “30-Sep-2026,+0.25,4.60”; the rate before February was 3.60 per cent (row “10 Dec 2025 0.00 3.60”). Earlier changes: 8 November 2023 to 4.35 per cent; cuts effective 19 February, 21 May and 13 August 2025 to 4.10, 3.85 and 3.60 per cent. Decisions were announced the day before each effective date: 3 February, 17 March, 5 May and 29 September 2026.
- Westpac: media release, 30 September 2026, https://www.westpac.com.au/about-westpac/media/media-releases/2026/30-september/, fetched 14:23 AEDT, 4 October 2026: “Westpac Life total variable rate with bonus interest will increase by 0.25% p.a. to 5.25% p.a., effective 9 October”. Westpac savings rates page, https://www.westpac.com.au/personal-banking/bank-accounts/savings-accounts/rates/, same time: Westpac Life “Total variable rate 5.00% p.a. if bonus interest criteria are met Standard variable rate 0.10% p.a. Bonus variable rate 4.90% p.a.”
- CBA: savings rates announcement, https://www.commbank.com.au/news/savings-rate-announcement.html, fetched 14:23 AEDT, 4 October 2026: “Last updated: 2 October 2026 Savings rates announcement 2 October 2026 Following the RBA Cash rate decision, we will make a variety of increases across select savings products, effective 9 October 2026.” “The NetBank Saver standard variable rate for new and existing customers is increasing from 2.10% p.a. to 2.30% p.a.” “The NetBank Saver variable introductory rate 1 is increasing from 5.20% p.a. to 5.50% p.a.” (new customers; the fixed bonus margin rises from 3.10% to 3.20%); GoalSaver total variable rate with bonus interest “is increasing from 5.00% p.a. to 5.25% p.a.”
- Yahoo Finance (NewsWire; Micallef and Fryer), published 6:31 pm AEST, 1 October 2026, https://au.finance.yahoo.com/news/first-major-lender-passes-rate-050843901.html, fetched 14:23 AEDT, 4 October 2026: “Almost immediately after the Reserve Bank’s announcement Macquarie Bank informed both savers and mortgage holders they would lift their rates.” “ANZ has announced it will increase the bonus rate on its Plus Growth Saver by 0.25 per cent from October 9.” (THE RORT did not find this on ANZ’s own pages.)
- Macquarie: RBA decision help page, https://www.macquarie.com.au/help/personal/home-loans/understanding-your-home-loan-interest-rates-and-fees/viewing-the-rba-interest-rate-decision.html, fetched 14:23 AEDT, 4 October 2026: Savings Account “Ongoing variable rate Balance 5.25% p.a. Up to $250,000 5.05% p.a. $250,000.01 - $2,000,000 4.60% p.a. $2,000,000.01 and above”, “effective 15 October 2026”. Savings account page, https://www.macquarie.com.au/everyday-banking/savings-account.html, same time: “Following the RBA’s decision on 29 September 2026, we’re increasing our variable everyday bank account interest rates, effective 15 October 2026.”
- ANZ: product rate feed, https://www.anz.com.au/productdata/productdata.asp?output=json&country=AU§ion=PDA&subsection=, fetched 14:23 AEDT, 4 October 2026: “sectioneffectivedate”: “Thursday, 24 September 2026”, Online Saver 1.35%. ANZ Plus Growth Saver page, https://www.anz.com.au/personal/bank-accounts/savings-accounts/, same time: “ANZ Plus Growth Saver rate 5.10% p.a. (total rate of standard + bonus rate)”. ANZ Plus open-banking product record, https://cdr.apix.anz/cds-au/v1/banking/products/SAVING01 (an open-banking address; it answers only a request that names a Consumer Data Right version, so a browser opening it directly shows an error message), fetched 14:30 AEDT, 4 October 2026: variable 0.0010, bonus 0.0500, last updated 2026-05-14. ANZ media release, 30 September 2026, https://www.anz.com.au/newsroom/media/2026/september/anz-changes-variable-home-loan-rates/, fetched 14:37 AEDT, 4 October 2026: “ANZ continues to review other interest rates.”
- Canstar (Laine Gordon), 30 September 2026, https://www.canstar.com.au/news/westpac-nab-and-anz-announce-rate-hikes/, fetched 12:23 AEST, 3 October 2026: “CBA, NAB and ANZ have not yet announced any increases to their savings rates.” “All four big banks’ variable mortgage increases will take effect on 9 October.”
- Twelve-month term deposits, pages fetched 14:23 AEDT, 4 October 2026. CBA, https://www.commbank.com.au/banking/term-deposits.html: “Latest rates as of 18 September 2026”; “12 months Special Offer ^ 5.30% p.a.”; “Special offer available from 18 September 2026 for a limited time only.” Westpac, https://www.westpac.com.au/personal-banking/bank-accounts/term-deposits/: 12-month special offer 5.30% online and 5.20% in branch; “12-month Special Offer available from 21/09/2026: On Term Deposits opened or renewed by a Westpac customer”. ANZ product catalogue, https://www.anz.com.au/content/dam/anzcomau/productcatalogue/psv3.json: Advance Notice Term Deposit, 12 to 24 months, “rate”: “0.053”, last updated 2026-09-23, identical in an archived copy of 29 September 2026. Macquarie, https://www.macquarie.com.au/everyday-banking/term-deposits.html (undated): “1 year 5.35% p.a.”
- NAB results documents, fetched 12:23 AEST, 3 October 2026. 2025 full year results summary, https://www.nab.com.au/content/dam/nab/documents/reports/corporate/2025-full-year-results-summary.pdf: “Net interest margin (NIM) increased by 3 basis points (bps) to 1.74%.” “$7,091m Cash earnings(i) Down 0.2% v FY24”. 2025 management discussion and analysis, https://www.nab.com.au/content/dam/nab/documents/reports/corporate/2025-full-year-results-management-discussion-and-analysis.pdf: “Net interest margin 1.74% 1.71% 3 bps 1.78% 1.70% 8 bps”; statutory net profit $6,759m against $6,960m, “(2.9)” per cent. 2026 half year ASX summary, 4 May 2026, https://news.nab.com.au/content/dam/nab-news/documents/results/2026/hy26-results-asx-summary.pdf: “Net Interest Margin (NIM) rose 3 basis points (bps) to 1.81%.” “$3,588m Cash earnings ex large notable items(i) Up 2.3% v 2H25 Up 0.1% v 1H25”; “Excluding a 2 bps increase from M&T and a 1 bp benefit from liquid assets, NIM was stable reflecting higher earnings from the deposit replicating portfolio combined with lower deposit cost and deposit mix benefits, offset by lending competition.” First quarter 2026 trading update, 18 February 2026, https://capital.nab.com.au/content/dam/nab-capital/documents/supplementary-business-and-financial-disclosure/ASXNAB-1Q26-Trading-Update.pdf.coredownload.pdf: “Net interest margin (NIM) increased 2 basis points (bps) to 1.80%.” “Excluding M&T and the impact of liquid assets, NIM was stable reflecting improved deposit outcomes including higher earnings on deposit replicating portfolios, offset by lending competition”. Third quarter 2026 trading update, 17 August 2026, https://announcements.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20260817/pdf/072t2r9n466y1j.pdf: “Net interest margin (NIM) decreased 2 basis points (bps) to 1.79%.” “Excluding the impact from M&T, NIM increased 2 bps mainly reflecting higher earnings on deposit and capital replicating portfolios partially offset by lending competition and small deposit impacts.” “Up 4% v 3Q25”; “NAB’s 3Q26 cash earnings increased 2% compared with the 1H26 quarterly average excluding the impact of the Large Notable Item (LNI) ... in 1H26, primarily driven by lower credit impairment charges (CICs).”
- NAB: 2026 Half Year Results investor presentation, https://www.nab.com.au/content/dam/nab/documents/reports/corporate/2026-half-year-results-investor-presentation.pdf, fetched 12:23 AEST, 3 October 2026. Net interest margin slide: “Benefit of rising rates largely reflected in replicating portfolios”; “Key 2H26 considerations”: “Deposit and capital replicating portfolios tailwind of ~5bps” and “8bps move in 3 month Bills/OIS spread equivalent to ~1bp of annualised NIM”; footnote: “Based on market implied 3 and 5 year swap rates trajectory as of 31 March 2026 and stable balances”. Margin bridge, half on half (chart text): “(0.04%) Aust HL -2bp Aust BL -2bp 0.00% HoH increase 3bps Flat ex M&T and Liquid Assets”, bar values under Lending Margin, Funding Costs, Deposits, Replicating Portfolios, Liquid Assets and M&T of (0.04%), 0.00%, 0.01%, 0.03%, 0.01% and 0.02% (THE RORT’s reading of the chart). “Key revenue drivers HoH Strong volume growth and broadly stable margin”. NAB August 2026 Debt Investor Update, https://capital.nab.com.au/content/dam/nab-capital/documents/debt-investor-presentations/NAB-August-2026-Debt-Investor-Update.pdf, fetched 12:23 AEST, 3 October 2026, repeats the same slide.
- APRA: Quarterly authorised deposit-taking institution performance statistics, June 2026 highlights, “Published 17 September 2026”, https://www.apra.gov.au/quarterly-authorised-deposit-taking-institution-performance-statistics-june-2026-highlights, fetched 12:23 AEST, 3 October 2026: “Net profit after tax (year-end) ($bn)39.642.57.5%”.
- NAB: financial calendar, https://www.nab.com.au/about-us/shareholder-centre/financial-calendar, fetched 12:23 AEST, 3 October 2026: “5 November 2026Full Year Results Announcement”; “10 December 2026Annual General Meeting”; “2027 5 May 2027Half Year Results Announcement”. The calendar says its dates “are subject to change”. NAB’s financial year ends on 30 September.
- ACCC: Home loan price inquiry, interim report (provided to the Treasurer on 30 March 2020, published 27 April 2020), https://www.accc.gov.au/system/files/ACCC%20Home%20Loan%20Price%20Inquiry%20-%20Interim%20report%20-%2030%20March%202020.pdf, read in a browser at 12:41 AEST, 3 October 2026: “All of the banks aimed to at least partly recover their anticipated profit reductions through their headline rate decisions.” “in mid-2018 to early 2019, each of the big four banks increased headline variable rates when there was no change in the cash rate.”
- NAB card notices, earlier copies, and Canstar. Archived copy of NAB’s card-updates page taken 10 August 2026, 8:54 pm AEST, https://web.archive.org/web/20260810105447if_/https://www.nab.com.au/personal/credit-cards/card-updates, fetched 15:19 AEDT, 4 October 2026: five sentences reading “20.99% p.a. to 22.49%” (Rewards and Qantas cards) and none naming 13.49%; “NAB Low Fee Card and NAB Low Fee Platinum Card The variable cash advance rate will increase from 21.74% p.a. to 22.99% p.a.” Archived copy taken 29 September 2026, 11:12 am AEST, https://web.archive.org/web/20260929011209if_/https://www.nab.com.au/personal/credit-cards/card-updates, fetched 15:02 AEDT, 4 October 2026: six “20.99% p.a. to 22.49%” sentences, including the Low Fee Card, and “NAB Low Rate Card The variable purchase rate will increase from 13.49% p.a. to 13.99% p.a.” Archived Low Fee card page of 10 August 2026, https://web.archive.org/web/20260810105447if_/https://www.nab.com.au/personal/credit-cards/low-fee-card, fetched 15:04 AEDT, 4 October 2026: “currently 21.74% p.a. as at 28 July 2026, from 1 October 2026, this will increase to 22.99% p.a.”, and no purchase-rate note. Canstar, “NAB And Westpac To Shake Up Rewards Credit Cards”, 30 July 2026, https://www.canstar.com.au/news/nab-and-westpac-to-change-rewards-credit-cards/, fetched 15:01 AEDT, 4 October 2026: “NAB and Westpac have announced shake-ups to their popular rewards credit cards to come into effect on 1 October”; “The cash advance rate on all cards will increase from 21.74% to 22.99%.”; “NAB will make sweeping changes to its rewards credit cards, including changes to fees and earn rates from 1 October.” “These changes are being made as a result of the RBA’s surcharge ban and corresponding cut to the cap on interchange fees that help fund rewards programs.” Of Westpac’s card insurance changes: “the bank says these changes are not directly related to the RBA’s new interchange fee cap.”
- NAB card rates before 2026. Archived NAB rewards cards page of 9 December 2023, https://web.archive.org/web/20231209221813id_/https://www.nab.com.au/personal/credit-cards/nab-rewards-cards, fetched 15:11 AEDT, 4 October 2026: “purchase rate 19.99 % p.a.”, stamped “Correct as at 1 November 2023”; copy of 24 March 2024, https://web.archive.org/web/20240324003244id_/https://www.nab.com.au/personal/credit-cards/nab-rewards-cards, fetched 15:12 AEDT: “purchase rate 20.99 % p.a.”, stamped “Correct as at 13 February 2024”; copy of 13 May 2026, https://web.archive.org/web/20260513133829id_/https://www.nab.com.au/personal/credit-cards/nab-rewards-cards, fetched 15:06 AEDT: “purchase rate 20.99 % p.a.” Yahoo Finance (AAP), dated 14 February 2024, https://au.finance.yahoo.com/news/nab-cba-hike-interest-rates-fees-on-credit-cards-035220573.html, fetched 15:01 AEDT, 4 October 2026: “The major bank increased the interest rate on its Low Rate, Rewards and Qantas cards by 1 percentage point, effective today.” “Low Rate card customers will be paying a new purchase rate of 13.49 per cent, while Rewards and Qantas card customers will be paying 20.99 per cent.” Savings.com.au, published 13 September 2024, https://www.savings.com.au/news/nab-ups-credit-card-fees, fetched 15:01 AEDT, 4 October 2026: “NAB is increasing the purchase rate for its Low Fee Card to 20.99% p.a. from Friday, a jump of 125 basis points on the old rate.” Changes between archived copies cannot be ruled out.
- Other banks’ card rates, fetched 15:01 AEDT, 4 October 2026. ANZ, https://www.anz.com.au/personal/credit-cards/card-changes/: “As of 28 September 2026, the standard Annual Percentage Interest Rate on Purchases, Cash Advances and standard Balance Transfers increased to the rates set out below:”, purchases 22.49% p.a.; the Low Rate card “has not changed and remains at 13.74% p.a.” Westpac rates page, https://www.westpac.com.au/personal-banking/credit-cards/rates/: Altitude Platinum and Black purchase rate 23.98% p.a. Finder, “Posted: 24 August 2026”, https://www.finder.com.au/news/westpac-st-george-credit-card-fee-hikes: “From 30 September 2026, Westpac will make the following changes to its Altitude cards”; “The purchase rate on these cards is increasing from 20.99% to 23.99%.” “These changes will make their credit cards more expensive and less rewarding, and come ahead of the 1 October 2026 ban on card surcharges.” CBA card fees page, https://www.commbank.com.au/credit-cards/card-fees-charges.html, and key facts sheet, https://www.commbank.com.au/personal/apply-online/download-printed-forms/cc-keyfacts.pdf (“Correct as at 29 September 2026”): Low Fee, Smart and Ultimate purchase rate 20.99% p.a.; “From 10 December 2024, interest rates offered on approval vary from 10.99% p.a. to 15.99% p.a.”
- Reserve Bank of Australia: Table F5, indicator lending rates, https://www.rba.gov.au/statistics/tables/csv/f5-data.csv, fetched 15:01 AEDT, 4 October 2026: “Publication date 07-Sep-2026”; last row 31 August 2026, standard credit cards 20.99, low-rate credit cards 13.49; standard cards 20.99 in every month from January 2025. Notes, https://www.rba.gov.au/statistics/tables/xls/f05hist.xlsx?v=2026: “Data are compiled on the last working day of the month.” “‘Credit cards - Standard’ refers to standard Visa and MasterCard accounts with an interest-free period.” The series is an indicator across large lenders, not NAB’s own rate.
- Legislation, current compilations on legislation.gov.au, fetched 12:35 AEST, 3 October 2026. Competition and Consumer Act 2010 (compilation of 16 September 2026): section 46, https://www.legislation.gov.au/C2004A00109/2026-09-16/2026-09-16/text/original/epub/OEBPS/document_1/document_1.html: “A corporation that has a substantial degree of power in a market must not engage in conduct that has the purpose, or has or is likely to have the effect, of substantially lessening competition in”; Part VIIA, https://www.legislation.gov.au/C2004A00109/2026-09-16/2026-09-16/text/original/epub/OEBPS/document_2/document_2.html: section 95H(1) “require the Commission to hold an inquiry into a specified matter”; section 95ZF(1)(a) “to monitor prices, costs and profits relating to the supply of goods or services by a specified person”; section 131A, https://www.legislation.gov.au/C2004A00109/2026-09-16/2026-09-16/text/original/epub/OEBPS/document_3/document_3.html: “Despite section 131, this Division does not apply, other than in relation to the following provisions of Schedule 2 ... to the supply, or possible supply, of services that are financial services, or of financial products”. ASIC Act 2001 (compilation of 19 September 2026), https://www.legislation.gov.au/C2004A00819/2026-09-19/2026-09-19/text/original/epub/OEBPS/document_1/document_1.html: section 12CB, “engage in conduct that is, in all the circumstances, unconscionable.”; “12DA Misleading or deceptive conduct”; section 12BH(1)(f), “a term that permits, or has the effect of permitting, one party to vary the upfront price payable under the contract without the right of another party to terminate the contract”; section 12BI(1)(b), “the term sets the upfront price payable under the contract”. National Credit Code (Schedule 1 to the National Consumer Credit Protection Act 2009, compilation of 1 July 2026), https://www.legislation.gov.au/C2009A00134/2026-07-01/2026-07-01/text/original/epub/OEBPS/document_2/document_2.html: section 64(1), “A credit provider must, not later than the day on which a change in the annual percentage rate or rates payable under a credit contract takes effect, give to the debtor written notice”; section 65(1), “not later than 20 days before a change in the amount or frequency or time for payment of ... instalments or minimum repayments”; section 65(3), “If the amount or frequency or time for payment of instalments or minimum repayments is not specified in the credit contract but is determined by a method of calculation so specified, this section requires the credit provider to give particulars only of any change in that method of calculation.” A search of the three Acts for “cash rate” found no match.
- The Conversation, “Published: December 17, 2025”, https://theconversation.com/supermarket-price-gouging-will-be-banned-from-july-will-consumers-actually-end-up-better-off-272060, fetched 12:35 AEST, 3 October 2026: price gouging, “setting prices at a level far higher than people think is reasonable”, “isn’t currently illegal for businesses in Australia.” Andrew Leigh, joint media release with the Treasurer, Jim Chalmers, 14 December 2025, https://ministers.treasury.gov.au/ministers/andrew-leigh-2025/media-releases/banning-supermarket-price-gouging-protect-australian, fetched 12:35 AEST, 3 October 2026: the supermarket ban is “now law and will come into effect on 1 July 2026.”
- ABC News, 31 March 2026, https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-03-31/nt-revives-1940s-law-overrule-fuel-prices-regulate-gouging/106516720, fetched 12:39 AEST, 3 October 2026: Northern Territory Treasurer Bill Yan said that in “the most extreme cases” the Price Exploitation Prevention Act allowed the government to “overrule and set the price” of petrol and diesel.
- Parliament of Australia, bill page, https://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Bills_Legislation/Bills_Search_Results/Result?bId=s1430, fetched 12:37 AEST and 12:39 AEST, 3 October 2026: “Second reading negatived 09 Oct 2024”; “Second reading moved 05 Feb 2026 Second reading debate 05 Feb 2026 Second reading negatived 05 Feb 2026”; status “Not Proceeding”. Australian Greens, media release, 9 October 2024, https://greens.org.au/news/media-release/labor-votes-down-action-price-gouging, fetched 12:35 AEST, 3 October 2026: “Labor has sided with big business, voting down a Greens Bill that would have made price gouging illegal”.
- ACCC records of Treasurer directions, read in a browser between 12:41 and 12:43 AEST, 3 October 2026: “On 9 May 2017 the Treasurer, the Hon. Scott Morrison MP, issued a direction to the ACCC to inquire into prices charged” (https://www.accc.gov.au/media-release/mortgage-pricing-not-strongly-competitive); “On 14 October 2019, the Treasurer directed” (home loan price inquiry interim report, page 12); “On 14 February 2023, the Treasurer directed the ACCC to conduct an inquiry” (https://www.accc.gov.au/media-release/bank-customers-missing-out-on-earning-more-interest-from-savings); retail deposits final report: “The direction dated 14 February 2023, given under section 95H of the Competition and Consumer Act 2010”.
- Treasury ministers, media release, 1 April 2026, https://ministers.treasury.gov.au/ministers/andrew-leigh-2025/media-releases/banning-unfair-trading-tricks-and-traps, fetched 12:35 AEST, 3 October 2026: “We are also considering whether further steps are appropriate in the financial services sector, ensuring we do not overlook areas where consumers may be exposed to potential gaps.” Ashurst, 2 July 2026, https://www.ashurstperkinscoie.com/en/insights/australia-bans-unfair-trading-practices-strengthens-laws-against-drip-pricing-and-subscription-traps/, fetched 12:35 AEST, 3 October 2026: “On 2 July 2026, Parliament passed amendments”; “The Competition and Consumer Amendment (Unfair Trading Practices) Act 2026 will commence on 1 July 2027.”
- Canstar, https://www.canstar.com.au/news/fourth-cash-rate-hike-what-borrowers-need-to-know/, fetched 12:35 AEST, 3 October 2026: “CBA: Minimum of 20 days’ notice. Westpac: Minimum of 30 days’ notice. NAB: Minimum of 30 days’ notice.”
- Australian Banking Association: Banking Code of Practice (2025), https://www.ausbanking.org.au/banking-code/2025-banking-code-of-practice-screen-reader-friendly/, fetched 12:35 AEST, 3 October 2026. Paragraph 35: “If we change an interest rate, we will tell you as soon as reasonably possible, but no later than the date of the change, unless we are not able to because the interest rate is calculated according to a money market or some other external reference rate, or a rate otherwise designated as a variable or floating rate.” None of the Code’s eight passages that mention an interest rate limits the size of a rise (THE RORT’s reading).