Why the RBA did all the work
Thirteen rate rises. The biggest tightening since 1990. Budget in surplus (2022-23 and 2023-24). Some of the largest firms widened their margins, though Reserve Bank research found little evidence of broad margin rises outside mining. Th…
On 3 May 2022, the Reserve Bank of Australia began what would become the biggest tightening since the cash rate target began in 1990. By November 2023, it had raised rates 13 times, taking the cash rate from 0.10 per cent to 4.35 per cent. The Board also held at five meetings along the way, in April, July, August, September and October 2023 16; the cash rate was the main lever being pulled, beside the gas and coal price caps recorded in the correction below.
Correction, 29 September 2026. This article called the 2022-23 cycle the fastest in the Reserve Bank’s history (here) and in Australian history (subtitle and first reference), and it described every meeting as a rise and every rise as 25 basis points; the Board held five times in 2023 16, and four of the 13 rises were 50 basis points. The first claim was wrong: on the RBA’s own cash rate table, which begins in 1990, the 1994 cycle was faster. The 2022-23 cycle was the biggest tightening since the cash rate target began in 1990, and the fastest since 1994 1617. The subtitle and reference have been amended.
This was partly the nature of the institutions involved. The RBA has one tool: the cash rate. By law the Board sets monetary policy in the way that, in its opinion, best contributes to price stability and full employment 48; the Governor calls the cash rate ‘our only instrument we’ve got’ 29. The independent RBA Review of 2023 recommended changes to the Bank’s governance 2.
Correction, 29 September 2026. This article said the RBA was legally mandated to raise rates whenever inflation is above target, and that it was required to raise rates by its mandate. That overstated the law: the Reserve Bank Act sets two monetary policy objectives, price stability and full employment, under an overarching objective of the economic prosperity and welfare of the people of Australia 48, and does not require a rise whenever inflation is above target; the article’s own record of five holds in 2023 shows the Board did not raise at every meeting 16. The current wording, s 9B, was inserted by the Reserve Bank Reforms Act 2024, in force from 1 March 2025, after the 2022-23 cycle 48. THE RORT did not re-read the Act in force during 2022-23 for this correction; the five holds in 2023 rest on the Bank's own table 16. The subtitle, the paragraph above and one later passage have been amended.
But the RBA is not the only institution that can act on inflation. Governments can raise taxes on companies earning windfall profits from the supply shock that is driving prices up. They can introduce price transparency requirements that limit margin expansion. They can provide targeted relief to households hit hardest by essential goods price rises.
None of these things happened at meaningful scale in Australia during the 2022-23 inflation episode.
Correction, 29 September 2026. This article should have recorded that the government did use a non-rate price tool in the 2022-23 episode: a cap of $12 a gigajoule on new east coast wholesale gas contracts from late December 2022, with New South Wales and Queensland effectively capping the price of coal for electricity generation at $125 a tonne, with Commonwealth funding 18. Treasury forecast that the caps would reduce inflation by about half a percentage point in 2023-24 and that, without them, the average family would pay $230 more on its electricity bill; that is a forecast, and THE RORT found no after-the-fact evaluation 18. The Gas Market Review (December 2025) records that stakeholders indicated the mechanism ‘has not been sufficient to put downward pressure on prices in the context of tight supply conditions’ 20. The emergency gas cap expired in December 2023; the mandatory Gas Market Code, which commenced on 11 July 2023, keeps a $12 ‘reasonable price’ that stays in force until new arrangements are in place, and a gas reservation scheme starts on 1 July 2027 192021. The subtitle’s ‘The RBA did it alone’, the image and its caption, the pullquote below, a key fact, the opening paragraph and two later passages have been amended.
Correction, 30 September 2026. The correction above said a gas reservation scheme starts on 1 July 2027. The department’s reform page, last updated 29 September 2026, still says ‘This scheme will commence from 1 July 2027.’ But the ministers’ joint media release of 10 September 2026 says the ‘licence application process will commence from 1 January 2027, with the Domestic Supply Obligation to commence from 1 January 2028’, and the same department page says ‘Obligations are expected to start on 1 January 2028.’ Licence applications therefore start on 1 January 2027 and the Domestic Supply Obligation on 1 January 2028, not on 1 July 2027. The 7 May 2026 announcement gave 1 July 2027 21.
01The fiscal position: surpluses while borrowers suffered
In FY22-23, the Australian government returned to budget surplus for the first time in 15 years. The surplus was approximately A$22 billion. In FY23-24, the surplus continued at A$15.8 billion.
Correction, 29 September 2026. The 2023-24 underlying cash surplus was $15.8 billion (0.6 per cent of GDP), not approximately A$9 billion as this paragraph said; the 2022-23 surplus was $22.1 billion 22. The paragraph above has been amended.
Update, 29 September 2026. The budget has since returned to deficit: $10.0 billion in 2024-25 and $22.3 billion (0.8 per cent of GDP) in 2025-26, with a deficit of $31.5 billion (1.0 per cent of GDP) forecast for 2026-27 23. The subtitle’s ‘Budget in surplus’ describes 2022-23 and 2023-24 only.
This was partly a windfall: elevated commodity export revenues from iron ore, coal and LNG (all benefiting from the same Ukraine war price spikes that were driving inflation) produced extraordinary government revenues. The government was not choosing to run surpluses out of fiscal virtue. The commodity boom was depositing money into treasury. The Treasurer’s own account differs: he said the 2023-24 surplus was ‘entirely due to lower payments, not higher taxes’ 22.
The macroeconomic effect: the government was running fiscal drag, taking more out of the economy in taxes than it was putting back in spending, simultaneously with the RBA running monetary tightening. Both instruments were suppressing demand at the same time. The question is not whether the RBA was right to raise rates. The question is why, beyond a six-month fuel excise cut and, from late December 2022, gas and coal price caps, the government deployed no further supply-side tools that could have moderated the inflation and eased the load on 425 basis points of monetary tightening.
AMP’s analysis paraphrased Governor Lowe (2023) as saying government was contributing to the strength in inflation, and that high levels of public spending as a share of the economy were constraining the recovery in private spending 310.
Correction, 29 September 2026. The passage above was set as a quotation from Governor Lowe, but, as its source line said, it is AMP’s paraphrase. THE RORT has not verified his exact words, and a paraphrase should not have been set as a quotation.
02What the UK and EU did instead
The UK faced the same supply-shock inflation in 2022. It also raised interest rates. But it deployed fiscal tools alongside monetary policy.
In May 2022, the same month the RBA began raising rates, the UK government introduced the Energy Profits Levy: a 25 per cent surcharge on oil and gas company profits above a threshold. This was subsequently increased to 35 per cent and extended. The levy raised approximately GBP 10 billion. The UK also maintained a bank surcharge above the corporation tax rate throughout the rate cycle.
The EU deployed a solidarity contribution levy on fossil fuel sector profits in 2022-23. Revenue was recycled to support household energy bills across member states. France implemented temporary energy price caps for households. Spain capped household energy prices.
The United States used the Inflation Reduction Act to address some supply-side inflation through clean energy investment and pharmaceutical price negotiation, though it did not introduce a dedicated windfall tax.
Correction, 29 September 2026. The fact box above said fossil fuel subsidies of A$14.9 billion were ‘maintained’ through the inflation episode, and that there was ‘No bank levy’. Both were wrong and have been amended, as has the same figure later in this article. A$14.9 billion is the Australia Institute’s figure for 2024-25; its own series puts subsidies at A$11.1 billion in 2022-23, A$14.5 billion in 2023-24, A$14.9 billion in 2024-25 and A$16.3 billion in 2025-26, on its own classification 24. And since 1 July 2017 a Major Bank Levy has applied to certain liabilities of banks with more than $100 billion in liabilities, at 0.06 per cent a year when the Parliamentary Budget Office costed an increase in May 2024; five banks were captured (CBA, Westpac, ANZ, NAB and Macquarie), and ANZ alone booked $230 million for the March 2026 half. It is a levy on liabilities, not on profits; THE RORT has found no levy on bank profits 25. The PBO assumed 75 per cent of any increase in the levy would be passed on to customers through fees, mortgage rates or lower savings rates 25.
Australia’s equivalent: a six-month halving of fuel excise, from March to September 2022. Cost: approximately A$3 billion. Targeted: petrol prices only. Duration: six months. When the excise was restored, prices rose.
03The windfall that wasn’t taxed
While the RBA was raising rates to suppress inflation, the banking and fossil fuel sectors were taking in more. On APRA’s data, industry net interest income rose about 16 per cent, from $81.3 billion to $94.4 billion, in the first year of the 2022-23 rises, and margins widened that year before competition compressed them from mid-2023 (THE RORT’s calculation from APRA data) 45. Neither borrowers nor savers got the full 425 basis points: total deposit rates rose about 325 basis points, outstanding variable mortgage rates rose about 70 basis points less than the cash rate, and the majors’ lending spread over funding costs fell 60 basis points 46. Article 5 of this series examines the banks in full.
Correction, 29 September 2026. This paragraph said the four major banks reported a combined record profit of approximately A$32.5 billion in FY23, up 12.4 per cent, and listed the banks among the companies whose price increases were contributing to inflation. THE RORT has no primary source for that figure or that description; both have been replaced with APRA’s net interest income data and the Reserve Bank’s account of pass-through in the 2022-23 cycle 4546. The key fact has been amended.
The fossil fuel companies whose LNG exports were sold at Ukraine war-elevated prices reported record revenues. In the Senate on 1 April 2026, Senator David Pocock set MYEFO’s $2.7 billion beer excise estimate against $1.5 billion of PRRT for 2025-26, the gas resource rent tax documented in The Rort’s Gas Series; the Final Budget Outcome records $1,416 million of PRRT cash receipts that year. PRRT is a profit-based tax, and company tax and royalties also apply 47.
Correction, 29 September 2026. The paragraph above said Santos had not paid corporate tax on A$30 billion in sales in ten years, and that the PRRT collected less than beer excise. THE RORT has no source for the Santos figure, which was also stated in Australian dollars, and the PRRT comparison gave no basis or year. The Santos sentence has been removed and the PRRT sentence replaced with the Senate figures and the PRRT basis 47.
Fossil fuel subsidies rose from A$11.1 billion in 2022-23 to A$14.5 billion in 2023-24, on the Australia Institute’s figures (on its own classification; whether the fuel tax credit counts as a subsidy is contested). On that classification, Australian governments, federal and state, were subsidising fossil fuel producers and major users while the price spike was driving inflation; no windfall tax was introduced, existing company tax still applied, and Treasury officials later told a Senate committee that after the Ukraine price spike oil and gas producers ran down accumulated tax losses, ‘and that’s what’s led to that increase in tax paid’ 38.
Correction, 29 September 2026. The paragraph above said the government was raising ‘nothing from its windfall’. That overstated the position: company tax still applied, and Treasury officials told the committee that the run-down of accumulated losses led to an increase in tax paid 38. No windfall tax was introduced. The paragraph has been amended.
The Australia Institute made the windfall tax argument explicitly: the same geopolitical event (Ukraine war) that was driving inflation for households was driving profits for commodity exporters. A targeted levy on those excess profits would have: raised revenue without raising rates; addressed the specific cause rather than the general demand level; and reduced the burden placed on the RBA. The government chose not to introduce one.
04The political choice
Why did the government not do more, such as a windfall tax? The parties’ stated reasons on gas in 2026 are set out below; THE RORT has no stated reason for 2022-23 on the record. Separately, the AEC register records payments from the banks and the gas industry to both major parties, in similar amounts; the register shows the money, not why any party acted as it did.
Correction, 29 September 2026. This paragraph offered donations as ‘the political economy answer’ to why the government did not act, and said the supermarkets’ political relationships were documented in the ACCC inquiry. Donations are not evidence of motive, and THE RORT has no source for the ACCC line; both have been amended. The opening paragraph above has since been reworded again so that it no longer sets 2024-25 payments against the reasons for 2022-23 inaction.
Update, 29 September 2026. The Australian Electoral Commission’s register records such payments for recent years. On their own donor returns for 2024-25, CBA, Westpac, NAB, ANZ and the Australian Banking Association disclosed payments of $340,501 to Labor and $394,557 to the Coalition, and Woodside, Santos, INPEX, Chevron, Tamboran and their industry body Australian Energy Producers disclosed $430,940 to Labor and $532,429 to the Coalition. These are payments disclosed as donations by the donors, often for fundraising events; the money went to both major sides in similar amounts, and none of it shows why any party acted as it did 26. The parties’ stated reasons on gas in 2026: the Prime Minister said the middle of a global fuel crisis was ‘the worst possible time to jeopardise these partnerships’, and the Treasurer said there were ‘good reasons to prioritise fuel supply and gas reservation’ (both as reported by the ABC); Coalition senators on the 2026 gas tax committee recommended ‘no arbitrary taxation such as a windfall levy on gas exports’ 394041.
In THE RORT’s view, allowing the RBA to carry most of the burden of stabilisation is politically easier than introducing windfall taxes. Rate rises are the RBA’s decision, not the government’s. They are technical, institutional, and at arm’s length. Windfall taxes are government decisions, politically contested, and directly opposed by the industries they target.
Update, 29 September 2026. The cash rate was cut three times in 2025, to 3.60 per cent, and has risen four times in 2026, by 100 basis points in all, most recently on 29 September (effective 30 September) to 4.60 per cent, above the 2023 peak and the highest since late 2011 16. The pattern has recurred in 2026, with one difference: the government’s own Budget now says fiscal policy is ‘better suited than monetary policy to respond to supply shocks, such as the global oil shock’ 27, while the IMF cautions that fiscal responses ‘should avoid broad-based subsidies, tax cuts, and price controls’ 28. The Governor has called the cash rate ‘our only instrument we’ve got’ (3 February) and ‘all we have’ (5 May), said on 5 May that ‘we had an inflation problem before this’, and said fiscal policy ‘has many more things that it can do’ while declining to tell the government what to do 2930. She also said that governments spending heavily against capacity limits ‘do need to think about’ ways to constrain demand 30. The government halved fuel excise from 1 April, and with a further 5.7 cents funded by the states the cut was more than half; it fell to a 16-cent discount from 1 July and ended at midnight on 2 August 3132. From 1 July 2026 excessive grocery pricing by the largest supermarkets is also prohibited 44. The Reserve Bank’s 29 September statement does not mention fiscal policy, government spending or the Budget (an absence in one document, not proof of the Bank’s wider views), and its March and May Minutes do not use the word ‘fiscal’ 333435.
The UK raised rates AND introduced a windfall tax on energy companies (GBP 10 billion+) AND maintained a bank surcharge. The EU deployed a solidarity contribution levy AND member states capped energy prices. Australia raised rates 13 times in 2022-23 AND halved fuel excise for six months AND then gave it back AND introduced a gas price cap from late December 2022, with coal price caps announced that month. No windfall tax was introduced.
The cost fell first on borrowers: Roy Morgan estimated, for July 2026, on its own model, that 32.5 per cent of owner-occupier mortgage holders (1,786,000 people) were ‘At Risk’ of mortgage stress 42, though the Reserve Bank’s March 2026 Financial Stability Review found arrears back around pre-pandemic levels 37. Renters bore it less directly: the Reserve Bank finds rate changes have ‘very little direct effect’ on their cash flows, but it found renters’ financial stress in 2024 was around twice that of owner-occupiers (see the correction below) 37. It was borne by workers whose real wages fell while some of the largest firms widened their margins, though Reserve Bank research found little evidence of broad margin rises outside mining 43.
Correction, 29 September 2026. The statement that landlords passed their higher mortgage costs on to renters overstated the evidence, and has been removed from the paragraph above. Reserve Bank research using tax data from 2006-07 to 2018-19 finds investors on average raise rents by about one cent for each extra dollar of mortgage interest (at most three cents in rising-rate periods), ‘limited evidence’ of pass-through, with rents driven mainly by demand relative to the housing stock; the Bank added in October 2024 that pass-through may be higher when vacancies are very low, ‘as is currently the case’ 36. Renters are under strain regardless: the Bank’s March 2026 Financial Stability Review found the share of renters experiencing financial stress was around twice that of owner-occupiers in 2024 37. The paragraph above also gave ‘1.5 million Australian households at mortgage stress’ with no source; it now cites Roy Morgan’s July 2026 estimate, which counts people and is that firm’s own model 42.
If it’s a rort, we cover it.
- Review: one year after the 29 September 2026 updateYearly review of this article.
Read the desk note
REVIEW 29 September 2027 (case: THE INFLATION RORT). Re-read this article a year after its 29 September 2026 update: every dated note, every forecast or projection, and every line the update record lists as still open. NEXT DATE: none set.
- Record: article 3 corrected, 30 September 2026One dated correction: the gas reservation scheme’s start dates.
Read the desk note
UPDATED 30 September 2026 (case: THE INFLATION RORT, article 3, Why the RBA did all the work).
ARTICLE CHANGES. One correction, in the opening, after the 29 September correction about the 2022 gas cap: that correction said a gas reservation scheme starts on 1 July 2027. The ministers’ joint media release of 10 September 2026 says licence applications start on 1 January 2027 and the Domestic Supply Obligation on 1 January 2028. The sentence is left as published, with a dated correction after it, and the release is added to reference 21.
STILL OPEN. As in the record of 29 September.
NEXT DATE: 29 September 2027, review.
- Record: article 3 updated, 29 September 2026Fourteen dated notes: eleven corrections, three updates.
Read the desk note
UPDATED 29 September 2026 (case: THE INFLATION RORT, article 3 of 19 published).
ARTICLE CHANGES. Corrections: the RBA 'legally mandated' or 'required by its mandate' to raise rates whenever inflation is above target (the statute names price stability and full employment; subtitle, opening paragraph and one later passage amended); 'fastest in its history' (1994 was faster) and 'every meeting' a rise (the Board held five times in 2023); the government did cap gas prices from late December 2022, with coal caps announced that month (opening paragraph, two later passages, subtitle, caption, pullquote, key fact and image amended); 'raising nothing from its windfall' (existing company tax still applied); the 2023-24 surplus was $15.8bn, not about A$9bn; the Lowe passage was AMP's paraphrase; fossil fuel subsidies were A$11.1bn in 2022-23, not A$14.9bn 'maintained'; a Major Bank Levy on liabilities exists; landlord pass-through overstated; the unsourced '1.5 million households at mortgage stress' replaced by Roy Morgan's July 2026 estimate; the unsourced A$32.5bn 'record' FY23 bank profit, and the listing of the banks among companies whose price rises contributed to inflation, replaced by APRA net interest income and the Reserve Bank's pass-through figures for 2022-23 (a key fact amended too); the Santos A$30bn line removed and the PRRT 'less than beer excise' line replaced by the Senate figures of 1 April 2026 with the PRRT basis; donations offered as the political economy answer to government inaction, and the supermarkets' ACCC 'political relationships' line, removed; 'every 25 basis points' (four rises were 50) added to the record of the opening correction; 'corporate margins expanding' replaced by the Reserve Bank's finding. Updates: the 2025 cuts and the 2026 rises to 4.60 per cent; deficits since 2024-25; the 2026 pattern; the AEC register on bank and gas payments to both major parties, with the parties' stated reasons beside it.
STILL OPEN. The UK and EU figures were not re-verified. These live lines carry no source in this update: 'first in 15 years'; the A$3bn cost of the 2022 fuel excise cut (text, fact box, key fact and image); the image's France 'EUR 45B' and Spain price-cap lines; the United States Inflation Reduction Act paragraph; 'extraordinary government revenues' from commodities; 'real wages fell' in 2022-23; 'record revenues' for LNG exporters; the AMP paraphrase of Lowe; and reference [15]'s 'No structural remedies introduced', which was not re-checked (its 'No price controls' is annotated against the 1 July 2026 excessive-pricing prohibition).
NEXT DATE: none dated for this article.
- RBA: 13 rate rises, cash rate history. https://www.rba.gov.au/statistics/cash-rate/. 13 rate rises May 2022 to November 2023. Cash rate: 0.10% to 4.35%. The biggest tightening since the cash rate target began in 1990, and the fastest since 1994 (corrected 29 September 2026).
- RBA Board review 2023: fiscal-monetary coordination. https://rbareview.gov.au/. Independent RBA Review April 2023: recommended new dual board structure and improved governance. Noted the importance of fiscal-monetary coordination for stabilisation policy.
- AMP / Oliver: government’s contribution to inflation. https://www.amp.com.au/resources/insights-hub/olivers-insights-rba-starts-year-off-with-rate-hike. Government-administered prices rising around 6% year-on-year. Public spending had grown to around 28% of GDP by 2022-23.
- Treasury Budget papers FY22-23 and FY23-24: fiscal surplus. https://budget.gov.au/. Australia returned to budget surplus in FY22-23 (approximately A$22 billion) and FY23-24 ($15.8 billion; corrected 29 September 2026). Surpluses reflected elevated commodity export revenues.
- UK Government: Energy Profits Levy / windfall tax on oil and gas. https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/cost-of-living-support/energy-profits-levy-factsheet-26-may-2022. UK introduced Energy Profits Levy May 2022. Rate: initially 25% surcharge, increased to 35% from January 2023. Revenue: approximately GBP 10+ billion. UK also maintained bank surcharge at 3% above corporation tax rate.
- EU: solidarity contribution levy on fossil fuel sector 2022-23. https://eur-lex.europa.eu/. EU Regulation 2022/1854: temporary solidarity contribution on fossil fuel companies. Revenue recycled to support household energy bills.
- Australia: temporary fuel excise halving March-September 2022. https://www.accc.gov.au/by-industry/petrol-and-fuel/fuel-and-petrol-monitoring. Morrison government halved fuel excise for six months. Cost: approximately A$3 billion. When excise restored, prices rose.
- Australia Institute: fiscal capacity and windfall tax argument. https://australiainstitute.org.au/. A windfall tax on excess profits could have raised revenue without squeezing households, moderated the inflationary impact, and provided revenue for cost of living relief.
- Senate Economics Committee: bank profits hearings 2023. https://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Committees/Senate/Economics. Bank executives defended margins as competitive market outcomes. No windfall levy introduced.
- AMP / Oliver: AMP’s paraphrase of Governor Lowe on public spending (2023). https://www.amp.com.au/resources/insights-hub/olivers-insights-rba-starts-year-off-with-rate-hike. THE RORT has not verified Lowe’s own words (corrected 29 September 2026).
- UNSW BusinessThink: bank profits and rate cycle analysis (December 2023). https://www.businessthink.unsw.edu.au/articles/big-bank-profits-interest-rates-mortgage-stress-RBA. Big four banks reported record A$32.5 billion combined profit (up 12.4%). Net interest income rose 13.8% to A$74.9 billion. (Correction, 29 September 2026: the A$32.5 billion figure is no longer relied on in the text; see [45] and [46].)
- Fiscal drag vs monetary tightening: simultaneity. https://budget.gov.au/. Australia’s FY22-23 surplus was A$22 billion. Both fiscal and monetary instruments were suppressing demand simultaneously.
- Australia: fossil fuel subsidies 2024-25. https://australiainstitute.org.au/report/fossil-fuel-subsidies-in-australia-2025/. Fossil fuel subsidies 2024-25: A$14.9 billion (Australia Institute series: A$11.1bn 2022-23, A$14.5bn 2023-24, A$16.3bn 2025-26; corrected 29 September 2026).
- Grattan Institute: RBA monetary policy and fiscal policy interaction. https://grattan.edu.au/. Targeted fiscal interventions could reduce the required quantum of monetary tightening.
- ACCC supermarkets inquiry: government response. https://www.pymnts.com/cpi-posts/australias-major-supermarkets-face-scrutiny-over-profit-margins-amid-rising-prices/. No structural remedies introduced. No windfall tax. No price controls (as of that response; from 1 July 2026 excessive pricing by very large retailers is prohibited, see [44]).
- RBA: cash rate target history (table begins January 1990), fetched 29 September 2026. https://www.rba.gov.au/statistics/cash-rate/. The 1994 cycle rose 2.75 points in 119 days (17 August to 14 December 1994); the 2022-23 cycle rose 4.25 points over 553 days (4 May 2022 to 8 November 2023). 13 rises in the 2022-23 cycle, the most in any single tightening cycle since 1990; the Board held on 5 April 2023 and on 5 July, 2 August, 6 September and 4 October 2023 inside the cycle. The 13 rises were nine of 25 basis points and four of 50 (the chart's tally, which sums to 425 basis points). 2025 and 2026 rows: cuts effective 19 February, 21 May and 13 August 2025, to 3.60%; rises effective 4 February, 18 March, 6 May and 30 September 2026, to 4.60%, with holds effective 17 June and 12 August 2026. At 4.60% the rate is above the 2023 peak of 4.35% and at its highest since late 2011 (4.75% until a cut effective 2 November 2011); the four 2026 rises total 100 basis points from 3.60%. THE RORT's tally and calculation from the table.
- RBA: Table F1.1, interbank overnight cash rate series FIRMMCRI, publication date 1 September 2026. https://www.rba.gov.au/statistics/tables/csv/f1.1-data.csv. On this longer series, rises before 1990 were larger and faster (for example February 1988 to September 1989, +7.40 points in 19 months, against +4.20 for April 2022 to November 2023); pre-1990 rates are market rates.
- Acting Treasurer Gallagher and Minister Bowen, 'Gas price cap to take effect', 22 December 2022. https://ministers.treasury.gov.au/ministers/jim-chalmers-2022/media-releases/gas-price-cap-take-effect; and Prime Minister, 'Energy price relief plan', 9 December 2022. https://www.pm.gov.au/media/energy-price-relief-plan. 'The price cap of $12 a gigajoule (GJ) will apply to new domestic wholesale gas contracts by east coast producers for gas to be supplied over the next 12 months from developed fields.' Coal: 'effectively setting ceilings for the price of coal used for electricity generation to $125 a tonne, with the Commonwealth to contribute to costs.' The release says the cap takes effect 'from tomorrow' (23 December 2022); the Gas Market Review of December 2025 says it came into effect on 22 December 2022, so this article says late December 2022. Treasury forecast (not a measured result): 'Reduce inflation by around an estimated ½ percentage point in 2023-24. Without these policy interventions, the average family would be paying $230 more on their electricity bill next year.' No after-the-fact evaluation was found.
- DCCEEW: Gas Market Code, updated 22 December 2025. https://www.dcceew.gov.au/energy/markets/gas-markets/gas-market-code. The emergency gas cap expired on 22 December 2023 and was replaced by the Gas Market Code's $12/GJ 'reasonable price'. The Gas Market Review recommends phasing out the reasonable price setting; it has not been phased out.
- DCCEEW and DISR: Gas Market Review Report, December 2025. https://www.dcceew.gov.au/sites/default/files/documents/gas-market-review-report.pdf. The Code 'commenced on 11 July 2023' with a 'reasonable price' and sunsets on 1 October 2033. Stakeholders indicated the mechanism 'has not been sufficient to put downward pressure on prices in the context of tight supply conditions'.
- DCCEEW: Gas Market Review reforms, updated 10 September 2026. https://www.dcceew.gov.au/energy/markets/gas-markets/gas-market-review-reforms. 'The current regulations will remain in place until new arrangements are implemented.' Gas reservation scheme: 'This scheme will commence from 1 July 2027.' At 10 September 2026 the legislation was at exposure-draft stage. Added 30 September 2026: joint media release, Securing more affordable gas for Australians, 10 September 2026, https://www.minister.industry.gov.au/king/media/securing-more-affordable-gas-australians 'licence application process will commence from 1 January 2027, with the Domestic Supply Obligation to commence from 1 January 2028'. The department page, last updated 29 September 2026, also says 'Obligations are expected to start on 1 January 2028.'
- Treasurer, 'Labor delivers biggest ever back-to-back surpluses', 30 September 2024. https://ministers.treasury.gov.au/ministers/jim-chalmers-2022/media-releases/labor-delivers-biggest-ever-back-back-surpluses. 'Today's underlying cash surplus of $15.8 billion (0.6 per cent of GDP) follows the $22.1 billion (0.9 per cent of GDP) surplus delivered in 2022-23.' (The Final Budget Outcome PDF was not opened.) The Treasurer's release describes the 2023-24 surplus as 'entirely due to lower payments, not higher taxes' (the Treasurer's claim).
- Treasurer and Finance Minister, Final Budget Outcome 2025-26, 28 September 2026. https://ministers.treasury.gov.au/ministers/jim-chalmers-2022/media-releases/final-budget-outcome-2025-26; and Budget Paper No. 1, Statement 3, 12 May 2026. https://budget.gov.au/content/bp1/download/bp1_bs-3.docx. Deficit $10.0 billion in 2024-25 and $22.3 billion (0.8% of GDP) in 2025-26; the 2026-27 Budget forecasts $31.5 billion (1.0% of GDP).
- Australia Institute: fossil fuel subsidy series, each year's own edition. https://australiainstitute.org.au/post/fossil-fuel-subsidies-hit-14-5-billion-in-2023-24-up-31/ (13 May 2024); https://australiainstitute.org.au/report/fossil-fuel-subsidies-in-australia-2025/ (21 March 2025); https://australiainstitute.org.au/post/australian-fossil-fuel-subsidies-growing-faster-than-ndis-hitting-16-3-billion-in-2025-26/ (12 March 2026). A$11.1bn (2022-23), A$14.5bn (2023-24, up 31%), A$14.9bn (2024-25, up 3%), A$16.3bn (2025-26, up 9.4%). The classification is the Australia Institute's own method; whether the fuel tax credit counts as a subsidy is contested.
- Parliamentary Budget Office: Increase to the rate of the Major Bank Levy by 10 per cent, 14 May 2024. https://www.pbo.gov.au/sites/default/files/2024-05/Increase%20to%20the%20rate%20of%20the%20Major%20Bank%20Levy%20by%2010%20percent.pdf; and Explanatory Memorandum 2017. https://ministers.treasury.gov.au/sites/ministers.treasury.gov.au/files/2019-05/Final-EM-Major-Bank-Levy.pdf. 'The proposal would increase the Major Bank Levy from the current level (0.06% per annum, 0.015 per quarter)'; 'There are currently 5 banks captured by the levy'. ANZ 1H26 Results Announcement p. 17: 'Includes the major bank levy of -$230 million for the March 2026 half'. The PBO assumed 75% of any increase would be passed on to customers through fees, mortgage rates or lower savings rates. The costing of a 10% increase was not legislated. The Act's current rate was not re-read; 'still 0.06%' rests on no change being found.
- AEC Transparency Register, Annual Data bulk download (Donations Made, 2024-25), zip last modified 22 September 2026. https://transparency.aec.gov.au/Download/AllAnnualData. Figures are THE RORT's sums of the 'Value' on each donor's own return rows; Labor is recipients named 'Labor' or 'ALP-', Coalition is Liberal, National, Nationals, Country Liberal, LP-, LNP-, NAT-, NP- or CLP-. Banks 2024-25 (Labor / Coalition): CBA $78,400 / $96,119; Westpac $94,811 / $98,238; NAB $66,000 / $76,500; ANZ $50,000 / $65,000; Australian Banking Association $51,290 / $58,700; totals $340,501 / $394,557. Gas producers and lobby 2024-25: Woodside $53,775 / $48,940; Santos $63,200 / $102,600; INPEX $75,950 / $105,000; Chevron $85,565 / $48,150; Australian Energy Producers $87,450 / $123,239; Tamboran $65,000 / $104,500; totals $430,940 / $532,429. Parties often record the same payments as 'Other Receipt' (usually fundraiser or event payments); donor-side and party-side figures are not added together. The payments fell in July 2024 to June 2025. Disclosure threshold 2024-25: $16,900.
- Budget Paper No. 1, Statement 3, 12 May 2026. https://budget.gov.au/content/bp1/download/bp1_bs-3.docx. 'Fiscal policy has a range of instruments that can be calibrated for a specific policy response. This makes fiscal policy better suited than monetary policy to respond to supply shocks, such as the global oil shock.'
- IMF: World Economic Outlook Update, 'Global Economy in Crosscurrents of War and Technology', July 2026. https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/weo/2026/update/july/english/text.pdf. Fiscal policy 'should avoid broad-based subsidies, tax cuts, and price controls'; keeping real rates steady through a temporary shock 'may imply raising nominal policy rates'.
- RBA: Governor's press conference, 3 February 2026. https://www.rba.gov.au/speeches/2026/mc-gov-2026-02-03.html. 'the interest rate is our only instrument we've got'; 'a very blunt instrument'; 'I'm not going to tell the government what to do with fiscal policy. That's not my business.'
- RBA: Governor's press conference, 5 May 2026. https://www.rba.gov.au/speeches/2026/mc-gov-2026-05-05.html. Asked if there is 'a better way to deal with, largely oil shock-driven inflation', the Governor said the rate is 'all we have' and 'it affects different people differently'; asked about another tool, 'Fiscal policy has many more things that it can do.' On the oil shock: 'we had an inflation problem before this' (it 'is not the sole reason'). On fiscal policy: 'when governments are spending a lot of money and we're running up against capacity constraints, then they do need to think about whether or not there's ways they can help the inflation problem by looking for ways to constrain demand.' She did not rule out a fiscal role.
- Prime Minister, fuel excise halved for three months, 30 March 2026. https://www.pm.gov.au/media/fuel-excise-halved-three-months; and ABC News, 2 August 2026. https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-08-02/fuel-excise-cut-to-end-in-august-2/106965630. Fuel excise halved from 1 April 2026, cut to a 16-cent discount from 1 July, and ended at midnight on 2 August 2026.
- ABC News, 'Further fuel excise cut from GST revenue', 2 April 2026. https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-04-02/further-fuel-excise-cut-from-gst-revenue/106525678. The states funded a further 5.7 cents from extra GST revenue, 32 cents in total, taking the rate to 20.6 cents, so the excise was cut by more than half.
- RBA: Media Release 2026-27, 29 September 2026, 14:30 AEST. https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2026/mr-26-27.html. THE RORT's word search of the statement body: 'fiscal', 'government' and 'budget' each occur 0 times. This is an absence in one document, not proof of the RBA's wider views.
- RBA: Minutes of the Monetary Policy Board, 16 and 17 March 2026. https://www.rba.gov.au/monetary-policy/rba-board-minutes/2026/2026-03-17.html. The word 'fiscal' does not appear; public demand was 'broadly as expected'.
- RBA: Minutes of the Monetary Policy Board, meeting of 4 and 5 May 2026. https://www.rba.gov.au/monetary-policy/rba-board-minutes/2026/2026-05-05.html. The word 'fiscal' does not appear; the only reference to public spending is 'rising budget deficits' among the global trends that may have lifted neutral-rate estimates.
- RBA Bulletin, 'Do housing investors pass through changes in their interest costs to rents?', 17 October 2024. https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/bulletin/2024/oct/do-housing-investors-pass-through-changes-in-their-interest-costs-to-rents.html. Landlords on average raise rent by about one cent per extra dollar of mortgage interest (at most 3 cents in rising-rate periods); 'limited evidence' of pass-through; estimates use 2006-07 to 2018-19 tax data; pass-through may be higher when vacancies are very low, 'as is currently the case'.
- RBA: Financial Stability Review, March 2026, 'Resilience of Australian households and businesses'. https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/fsr/2026/mar/resilience-of-australian-households-and-businesses.html. Lower-income households, many of them renters, are more likely to be in financial stress; in 2024 renters' stress incidence was about twice that of owner-occupiers. 'The share of housing loans more than three months in arrears has declined over the past year, returning to around pre-pandemic levels.' (The Bulletin also finds renters feel 'very little direct effect' of a rate change.)
- Senate Select Committee on the Taxation of Gas Resources, report, Australian Greens’ additional comments, para 1.183 (quoting Treasury officials at the committee hearing), 2026. https://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Committees/Senate/Taxation_of_Gas_Resources/TaxationofGasResources/Report/Australian_Greens_Additional_Comments. Officials described 'a run-down of a lot of the accumulated losses in the corporate tax system by oil and gas producers, and that's what's led to that increase in tax paid'; further price pass-through 'would also directly translate through to higher corporate tax paid.' As quoted in the Greens' comments; the Hansard was not read.
- Select Committee on the Taxation of Gas Resources, report, Coalition Senators’ additional comments, 7 May 2026. https://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Committees/Senate/Taxation_of_Gas_Resources/TaxationofGasResources/Report/Coalition_Senators_Additional_Comments. 'The Coalition members of the committee recommend that there be no arbitrary taxation such as a windfall levy on gas exports.'
- ABC News, federal politics live blog, 29 April 2026. https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-04-29/federal-politics-blog-housing-energy-fastrack/106616572. The Prime Minister: 'The middle of a global fuel crisis is the worst possible time to jeopardise these partnerships, or the investment that underpins them.' Secondary source (the ABC's report of his words).
- ABC News, Jane Norman, 10 May 2026. https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-05-10/gas-tax-revenue-up-in-federal-budget/106663036. The Treasurer, as reported: 'I know that people would like us to go further but there are good reasons to prioritise fuel supply and gas reservation.' Secondary source.
- Roy Morgan, mortgage stress findings for July 2026, 1 September 2026. https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/10318-mortgage-stress-risk-july-2026. 32.5% of mortgage holders 'At Risk' of 'mortgage stress' in July 2026 (1,786,000 people, not households), 'the highest level of mortgage stress for 18 years'; Roy Morgan's own survey model.
- RBA Statement on Monetary Policy, May 2023, Box B, on whether business profits contributed to inflation. https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/smp/2023/may/box-b-have-business-profits-contributed-to-inflation.html. 'There is little evidence that there has been a broad-based increase in domestic non-mining profit margins'; but among the 200 largest firms 'some highly profitable firms have been able to gradually increase their margins'. Data to December 2022.
- Assistant Treasurer Andrew Leigh, 27 June 2026, and ACCC. https://ministers.treasury.gov.au/ministers/andrew-leigh-2025/media-releases/price-gouging-large-supermarkets-illegal-1-july-2026; https://www.accc.gov.au/business/industry-codes/food-and-grocery-code-of-conduct/supermarkets-excessive-pricing-prohibition. 'From 1 July 2026, it will be illegal for very large retailers such as Coles and Woolworths to charge prices that are excessive'; the ACCC test is 'significantly excessive'. No enforcement outcome checked.
- APRA: Quarterly authorised deposit-taking institution performance statistics, workbook Sep 2004 to Jun 2026 (September 2026 release). https://www.apra.gov.au/quarterly-authorised-deposit-taking-institution-performance-statistics-highlights-1. Net interest income over gross loans: 2.12% (June 2022), 2.35% (June 2023), 2.25% (June 2024), 2.20% (June 2025), 2.17% (June 2026); industry net interest income rose about 16% (from $81.3 billion to $94.4 billion) in the first year of the 2022-23 rises. Margins widened in that first year, then competition compressed them from mid-2023. THE RORT's calculation from APRA data.
- RBA: Statement on Monetary Policy, November 2023, domestic financial conditions. https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/smp/2023/nov/domestic-financial-conditions.html. 'the average interest rate on total deposits excluding offset accounts increased by 325 basis points over the hiking phase, around 75 per cent of the total increase in the cash rate'; 'The average outstanding variable rate increased by around 70 basis points less than the cash rate between May 2022 and September 2023'; 'the spread between lending rates and funding costs declined 60 basis points to around 190 basis points'.
- Journals of the Senate No. 46, 1 April 2026, item 12. https://parlinfo.aph.gov.au/parlInfo/search/display/display.w3p;query=Id%3A%22chamber%2Fjournals%2F521e5623-a639-4d7e-b49b-bbbe193dfb7b%2F0013%22; and Final Budget Outcome 2025-26 (Tables 1.3 and 1.4), https://archive.budget.gov.au/2025-26/fbo/download/00_fbo_2025-26.pdf, with ABC News, Jane Norman, 10 May 2026, https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-05-10/gas-tax-revenue-up-in-federal-budget/106663036. Senator David Pocock's second-reading amendment to the Excise Tariff Amendment (Draught Beer) Bill 2025 set MYEFO's $2.7 billion beer excise estimate against $1.5 billion of PRRT for 2025-26. PRRT in 2025-26: $1,416 million in cash receipts (estimate $1,400 million) and $1,661 million on an accrual basis. PRRT is a profit-based tax on petroleum projects; company tax and royalties also apply.
- Treasury Laws Amendment (Reserve Bank Reforms) Act 2024, assented 29 November 2024, in force 1 March 2025, s 9B. https://www.ato.gov.au/law/view/pdf/acts/20240096.pdf. Puts the dual mandate in statute: price stability and full employment. The Bank's overarching objective (s 8AA) is the ‘economic prosperity and welfare of the people of Australia’. The Act postdates the 2022-23 cycle.