Four rises in 2026 have taken the cash rate to 4.60 per cent, the highest since late 2011. The first rise, on 3 February, came before the war began. In its 29 September statement the Reserve Bank puts the Middle East war and global oil and energy prices first among its reasons, on top of domestic capacity pressure, and its Governor said in May that the rises would do nothing about the oil shock itself. Its answer is a squeeze on domestic demand, meant to stop high inflation becoming embedded, that falls on borrowers and job seekers; renters feel little direct effect from a rate change, but the RBA's own stability review found their financial stress about twice as common as owner-occupiers' in 2024. The Governor says "we had an inflation problem before" the oil shock, and inflation was above the 2 to 3 per cent band before the war began. The government's own 2026-27 Budget says fiscal policy is "better suited than monetary policy" to supply shocks such as the oil shock; the IMF says fiscal policy "should avoid broad-based subsidies, tax cuts, and price controls".
The government’s gas reservation scheme has a licence application process due to commence on 1 January 2027 and a Domestic Supply Obligation due to commence on 1 January 2028, according to the ministers’ joint media release of 10 September 2026 (corrected 30 September 2026: this row first said 1 July 2027). It was announced on 22 December 2025 with a reserve of “between 15 and 25 per cent” and set on 7 May 2026 at “equivalent to 20 per cent of exports, from 1 July 2027”, respecting export contracts entered into before 22 December 2025. On 10 September 2026 the Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water said the legislation was at exposure-draft stage and that it was intended to be introduced to Parliament that year. Watch for: whether the legislation passes, what range is written into it, and whether any government response to the Senate committee’s 7 May 2026 report, or the evaluation Labor senators recommended, appears before then.
The gas reservation scheme, set on 7 May 2026 at the equivalent of 20 per cent of exports, has a licence application process that the ministers’ joint media release of 10 September 2026 says will commence from 1 January 2027 and a Domestic Supply Obligation to commence from 1 January 2028; the department’s reform page says obligations are expected to start on 1 January 2028. At 10 September 2026 its legislation was at exposure-draft stage. Check on this date that the obligation started as announced. (Corrected 30 September 2026: the article first gave 1 July 2027 for the scheme.)
REVIEW 4 October 2027 (case: THE INFLATION RORT, article 24). Re-read this article against the record a year on: every NAB rate, the funding test and its benchmarks, the savings position, NAB's replies, and every item marked as not verified on 4 October 2026. NEXT DATE: none set.
REVIEW DUE 29 September 2027. Re-check each row of the tool board against the record: the cash rate, the gas price and the Code, the fuel excise roll-off in the September 2026 quarter CPI, the excessive-pricing ban, the unfair trading ban, the gas reservation scheme, the Major Bank Levy, and any 2026-27 or later proposal for a windfall levy, a bank levy or a gas export tax. Add dated Update paragraphs where the record has moved.
REVIEW 29 September 2027 (case: THE INFLATION RORT). Re-read this article against the record a year after publication: every dated note, every figure marked as a forecast, and every claim still marked open. NEXT DATE: none set.
REVIEW 29 September 2027 (case: THE INFLATION RORT). Re-read this article against the record a year on: the members and terms, the count of published declarations, the status of s 11, the Governor's remuneration in the 2025/26 and 2026/27 annual reports, and every answer added to the article since publication. NEXT DATE: none set.
REVIEW 29 September 2027 (case: THE INFLATION RORT). Re-read this article against the record a year after publication: every dated figure, every projection (Canstar's repayments), every estimate (the Reserve Bank's distributional research, the desk's headcount arithmetic) and every claim marked as unpublished or unconfirmed. NEXT DATE: none set.
REVIEW 29 September 2027 (case: THE INFLATION RORT). Re-read this article a year after publication against the record: the ABS national accounts split between financial and non-financial corporations, the RBA's F7 business loan rates, and any later Reserve Bank research on margins. NEXT DATE: none set.
REVIEW 29 September 2027 (case: THE INFLATION RORT). Re-read this article against the record a year after publication: every dated figure, every forecast quoted, and every scoped absence (the documents searched) against the Reserve Bank's later statements and Minutes. NEXT DATE: none set.
REVIEW 29 September 2027 (case: THE INFLATION RORT). Re-read this article against the record a year after publication: every figure marked as a forecast or a desk calculation, and whether the Bank has published an estimate of what the 2026 rises did. NEXT DATE: none set.
REVIEW 29 September 2027 (case: THE INFLATION RORT). Re-read this article against the record a year after the round-2 update: every dated note, every figure marked as a forecast or projection, and every claim still marked unverified in the desk's editorial map. NEXT DATE: none set.
REVIEW 29 September 2027 (case: THE INFLATION RORT). Re-read this article against the record a year after the round-2 update: every dated note, every figure marked as a forecast or projection, and every claim this article still marks as not re-checked. NEXT DATE: none set.
REVIEW 29 September 2027 (case: THE INFLATION RORT). Re-read this article against the record a year after the round-2 update: every dated note, every figure marked as a forecast or projection, and every claim still marked unverified in the editor’s map. NEXT DATE: none set.
REVIEW 29 September 2027 (case: THE INFLATION RORT). Re-read this article against the record a year after the 29 September 2026 update: every dated note, every figure marked as a forecast or projection, and every claim still marked unverified in this article’s dated notes. NEXT DATE: none set.
REVIEW 29 September 2027 (case: THE INFLATION RORT). Re-read this article against the record a year after the 29 September 2026 update: every dated note, every figure marked as a forecast or projection, and every figure carried over from the April 2026 edition that this round did not re-check. NEXT DATE: none set.
REVIEW 29 September 2027 (case: THE INFLATION RORT). Re-read this article against the record a year after the 29 September 2026 update: every dated note and every figure that has since been revised. NEXT DATE: none set.
REVIEW 29 September 2027 (case: THE INFLATION RORT). Re-read this article against the record a year after the round-2 update: every dated note, every figure marked as a forecast or projection, and every early or unpublished finding (the Graham and Sharma study). NEXT DATE: none set.
REVIEW 29 September 2027 (case: THE INFLATION RORT). Re-read this article a year after its 29 September 2026 update: every dated note, every forecast or projection, and every line the update record lists as still open. NEXT DATE: none set.
REVIEW 29 September 2027 (case: THE INFLATION RORT). One year on: check all forty questions (G1 to G17, T1 to T14, P1 to P4, O1 to O5) for an answer, a refusal or a recorded silence, and update the article.
REVIEW 29 September 2027 (case: THE INFLATION RORT, article 18). Search the Journals of the Senate and the House Votes and Proceedings again for divisions on a gas export tax after 12 August 2026 and add them to the count. Re-check the government’s, the Opposition’s and the Greens’ stated positions, whether the committee’s 7 May 2026 report drew a government response, and the PRRT receipts and LNG export earnings in the next Final Budget Outcome and Resources and Energy Quarterly. Record each change as a dated Update in the article.
Re-read the article one year on. Refresh anything dated, including this watch entry. Check whether the Bank’s 2025/26 annual report has published the interest paid on Exchange Settlement balances, whether the Exchange Settlement rate in force is now published, and whether the Bank’s balance sheet and negative equity have moved since 29 September 2026.
WATCH 1 July 2027 (case: THE INFLATION RORT). The ban on subscription traps, undisclosed checkout fees and manipulative online design starts. It can settle T13 (whether an excessive-pricing or unfair-trading test will apply to banking products, and when). Record what the government has said about financial services, or that it is silent, under T13.
NEXT DATE: 29 September 2027, one year on.
The unfair trading practices ban (subscription traps, undisclosed checkout fees and manipulative online design) takes effect on 1 July 2027; for financial services the government is only exploring further alignment with ASIC and the states and territories. Check on this date that it took effect as announced. (Corrected 30 September 2026: this row also carried the gas reservation scheme with a 1 July 2027 start; that scheme now has its own row, on 1 January 2028.)
WATCH 5 May 2027 (case: THE INFLATION RORT, article 24). NAB's financial calendar lists its half year results announcement for this date (subject to change). The March 2027 half is the first full half that can show the effect of the September 2026 rise on NAB's loan and deposit pricing. Check the group margin and its bridge against the March 2026 half (1.81 per cent; lending margin minus 4 basis points, replicating portfolios plus 3), and what NAB says about deposit pricing after the rise. Add a dated update to article 24. NEXT DATE: 4 October 2027, yearly review.
Carolyn Hewson AO's term on the Monetary Policy Board ends on 28 February 2027, the next to expire on the RBA's board page. Watch for a Treasurer's announcement of a reappointment or an appointment, and, if a new member is appointed, whether the process follows the panel arrangement described in this article (the Treasury Secretary, the Governor and a third party advise the Treasurer). THE RORT's question on the process is in the article "The grill".
WATCH 28 February 2027 (case: THE INFLATION RORT). Carolyn Hewson’s term on the Monetary Policy Board is the next to expire. It can settle T10 (whether the next appointment follows the open process). Record whether the term is extended or a new member is appointed, and whether the open process is used, or that nothing is announced, under T10.
NEXT DATE: 1 July 2027, the unfair trading ban starts.
The Commonwealth Energy Bill Relief Fund extension paid relief from 1 July 2024 to 31 December 2025, with total funding of $5.3 billion. The agreement's formal end date is 31 December 2026. No 2026 payment under it was found. Check on this date whether any relief was paid in 2026 and whether the agreement was extended or closed.
WATCH 31 December 2026 (case: THE INFLATION RORT). The formal end date of the Energy Bill Relief extension agreement. It can settle T12 (whether any Commonwealth electricity relief is paid in 2026). Record the answer, or its absence, under T12.
NEXT DATE: 28 February 2027, Carolyn Hewson’s Board term ends.
WATCH 22 December 2026 (case: THE INFLATION RORT). On the Bank’s habit of publishing Minutes two weeks after a meeting, the Minutes of the 8 December meeting are due on 22 December 2026 (verify on the day). They can settle G1, G5, G6, G9 and G14 if the 13 October Minutes left them open. Record what the Minutes say, or that they are silent, as a dated update under each question.
NEXT DATE: 31 December 2026, the Energy Bill Relief agreement ends.
The Board's last decision of 2026 is on Tuesday 8 December at 2.30 pm. Two weeks on the RBA's stated practice is about 22 December. That date is the desk's reading of the stated practice, not a date printed by the RBA. Check the year's tally of votes across the eight meetings and the Minutes for attendance and reasons.
WATCH 10 December 2026 (case: THE INFLATION RORT, article 24). NAB's financial calendar lists its annual general meeting for this date (dates subject to change). Check the chair's and chief executive's addresses and any shareholder questions on deposit rates, fixed-rate pricing or margins after the 2026 rises, and record anything said, with its source. NEXT DATE: 5 May 2027, NAB half year results.
WATCH 8 December 2026 (case: THE INFLATION RORT). Decision at 2.30 pm and media conference. NEXT DATE: 22 December 2026, Minutes of the 8 December meeting (two weeks on the RBA's stated practice).
WATCH 8 December 2026 (case: THE INFLATION RORT). The last Reserve Bank Board decision of 2026, 2.30 pm, with the Governor’s media conference. It can settle G8 (whether the Board weighs firms’ margins and exporters’ war revenues). Record what the statement says, or that it is silent, under G8.
NEXT DATE: 22 December 2026, Minutes of the 8 December meeting (on precedent).
WATCH 25 November 2026 (case: THE INFLATION RORT). ABS October CPI. NEXT DATE: 8 December 2026, the last Board decision of 2026.
WATCH 17 November 2026 (case: THE INFLATION RORT). On the Bank’s habit of publishing Minutes two weeks after a meeting, the Minutes of the 3 November meeting are due on 17 November 2026 (verify on the day). They can settle G1, G5, G6, G9 and G14 if the 13 October Minutes left them open. Record what the Minutes say, or that they are silent, as a dated update under each question.
NEXT DATE: 8 December 2026, the last Board decision of the year.
The Board's next decision is on Tuesday 3 November 2026 at 2.30 pm. The RBA says its Minutes are published two weeks after each meeting, which puts them on about 17 November. That date is the desk's reading of the stated practice, not a date printed by the RBA. Check the vote tally in the 3 November statement (published unattributed) and the Minutes for attendance and reasons.
WATCH 12 November 2026 (case: THE INFLATION RORT). The House of Representatives Economics Committee's Review of Australia's four major banks (referred 17 October 2025) lists its next hearing for this date. Check witnesses and the Hansard for answers on 2026 deposit pass-through and margins. If the banks give figures, the 29 September updates on this article and any held bank article gain dated updates. NEXT DATE: 8 December 2026, the last Board decision of 2026.
WATCH 12 and 13 November 2026 (case: THE INFLATION RORT). The House Economics Committee’s ‘Review of Australia’s four major banks’ has its next hearings on 12 November and 13 November 2026 (both in Canberra, as listed on the committee’s page on 30 September 2026). It can bear on T6 (whether the government has considered a higher bank levy or a levy on bank profits). Record what the hearings show, or that they are silent, under T6.
NEXT DATE: 17 November 2026, Minutes of the 3 November meeting (on precedent).
WATCH 5 November 2026 (case: THE INFLATION RORT, article 24). NAB's financial calendar lists its 2026 full year results announcement for this date and says its dates are subject to change. The result covers the year to 30 September and so cannot show the effect of the September 2026 rate rise on NAB's loan and deposit pricing. Check: the group net interest margin for the half to September 2026 against 1.81 per cent for the March half; the margin bridge (lending margin, deposits, replicating portfolios, Markets and Treasury); whether the words "Benefit of rising rates" recur, and what replicating-portfolio guidance NAB gives for FY27; any statement on fixed-rate or savings pricing. Add a dated update to article 24. NEXT DATE: 10 December 2026, NAB annual general meeting.
WATCH 3 November 2026 (case: THE INFLATION RORT). The next Reserve Bank Board decision, 2.30 pm, followed by the Governor’s media conference.
It can settle G2 (whether the war’s share of inflation is published), G3 (what part of inflation above target the rise is expected to reduce), G4 (whether the Bank publishes an estimate of the 2026 rises’ effect) and G8 (whether firms’ margins and exporters’ war revenues are weighed). Record what the statement and the conference say, or that they are silent, under each question.
NEXT DATE: 12 November 2026, House Economics Committee, four major banks (hearings also on 13 November).
WATCH 3 November 2026 (case: THE INFLATION RORT). Decision at 2.30 pm and the Governor's media conference. Record the rate, the vote and whether the statement mentions fiscal policy, profits or the war's pass-through (scoped word search, as for 29 September). NEXT DATE: 25 November 2026, ABS October CPI.
WATCH 3 November 2026 (case: THE INFLATION RORT). Decision at 2.30 pm and the Governor's media conference. Record the rate, the vote, and whether the statement still puts the war first and how it describes domestic capacity. NEXT DATE: 8 December 2026, the last Board decision of 2026.
WATCH 3 November 2026 (case: THE INFLATION RORT). The Board’s next decision is announced at 2.30 pm, followed by the Governor’s media conference. Check whether the Bank publishes any estimate of what the 2026 rises do to unemployment or inflation, and whether its adverse scenarios still hold the cash rate at the baseline. If it does, this article gains a dated Update beside the ⅛ to ½ of a point range. NEXT DATE: 8 December 2026, the following Board decision.
WATCH 29 October 2026 (case: THE INFLATION RORT). Second day of Supplementary Budget Estimates for the Economics Legislation Committee (Treasury portfolio). Any of T1 to T8, T12, T14 and G1 not reached on 28 October can be settled here. Record each answer, or its absence, under its question.
NEXT DATE: 3 November 2026, Board decision, 2.30 pm.
WATCH 28 October 2026 (case: THE INFLATION RORT). ABS September CPI with the September quarter, 11.30 am AEDT. The RBA expected the excise roll-off to boost September-quarter headline inflation. Supplementary Budget Estimates (Economics) sit the same day. NEXT DATE: 3 November 2026, Board decision.
WATCH 28 October 2026 (case: THE INFLATION RORT). The ABS releases the September-quarter CPI at 11.30 am AEDT, and the Senate Economics Legislation Committee (Treasury portfolio) sits for Supplementary Budget Estimates on 28 and 29 October. The Reserve Bank’s attendance is not yet posted.
This day can settle T1 (what fiscal measure is being used against the oil shock now), T2 (the excise roll-off’s effect on September-quarter CPI), T3 (the share of inflation Treasury attributes to the war), T4 (the 2026-27 fiscal impulse), T5 (the four-in-five figure), T6 (whether the government has considered a higher bank levy or a levy on bank profits), T7 (whether Treasury completed the gas levy modelling), T8 (the extra company tax and PRRT from LNG exporters), T12 (electricity relief), T14 (whether the government accepts the unemployment path) and G1 (whether the Bank has put a view to the government). Record each answer, or its absence, under its question.
NEXT DATE: 29 October 2026, Supplementary Budget Estimates, day 2.
WATCH 15 October 2026 (case: THE INFLATION RORT). Macquarie’s own page says its variable home loan reference rates rise by 0.25 percentage points from 15 October 2026. Check the dates other lenders have announced (Teachers Mutual Bank Limited: variable home loans from 8 October 2026; CBA, Westpac, NAB and ANZ: from 9 October 2026), and whether Canstar’s projection that four 2026 rises add about A$364 a month on a A$600,000 loan still holds; update the 29 September note on 2026 repayments if it does not. NEXT DATE: 28 October 2026, September quarter CPI.
WATCH 15 October 2026 (case: THE INFLATION RORT). Macquarie's own page says its variable home loan reference rates rise by 0.25 per cent per annum (0.25 percentage points), effective 15 October 2026. Check the dates other lenders have announced (Teachers Mutual Bank Limited: variable home loans from 8 October 2026; CBA, Westpac, NAB and ANZ: from 9 October 2026), and whether Canstar's projection that four 2026 rises add about $364 a month on a $600,000 loan still holds; update section 1 of this article if it does not.
WATCH 13 October 2026 (case: THE INFLATION RORT). The Reserve Bank’s release calendar lists the Minutes of the 29 September meeting for Tuesday 13 October 2026 at 11.30 am.
They can settle G1 (whether the Board discussed fiscal measures), G5 (whether the stance was properly calibrated), G6 (what wage-price evidence the Board acted on, and who attended), G9 (what unemployment rate the Board judges consistent with full employment) and G14 (whether votes are attributed). Record what the Minutes say, or that they are silent, as a dated update under each question.
NEXT DATE: 28 October 2026, September-quarter CPI and Supplementary Budget Estimates.
The RBA's release calendar lists the Minutes of the Monetary Policy meeting for Tuesday 13 October 2026 at 11.30 am. Check them for: the list of members present (whether Iain Ross attended, and that Melinda Cilento's first meeting is recorded); the reasons for the fourth rise; any minority view. Votes have been unattributed in every 2026 release, so do not expect names. THE RORT's questions on attendance and on attributing votes are in the article "The grill".
WATCH 13 October 2026 (case: THE INFLATION RORT). The Minutes of the 29 September meeting are listed for 11.30 am. Check: who attended; whether and why any member preferred to hold; fiscal policy; profits; peers. NEXT DATE: 28 October 2026, September quarter CPI.
WATCH 13 October 2026 (case: THE INFLATION RORT). The Minutes of the 29 September meeting are listed for 11.30 am. Check: attendance; the war's pass-through; peers; the case for holding, if any member preferred to hold and why. NEXT DATE: 3 November 2026, Board decision.
WATCH from 13 October 2026 (case: THE INFLATION RORT). The RBA tables F4, F4.1, F5 and F6, the source of the 2026 borrower and saver figures in this article, were last published on 7 September 2026 and do not include the 29 September rise; the October release is the first that will. The October release date has not been checked. When it is out, re-run the advertised and outstanding rate comparisons and add a dated update with the new figures, whichever way they point. NEXT DATE: 12 November 2026, House Economics Committee, four major banks.
FOLLOW-UP 12 October 2026 (case: THE INFLATION RORT, article 24). THE RORT's eleven questions to NAB ask for a reply by 5 pm AEDT today. Add any reply to article 24 in full where it is short, or quoted fairly with a link to the full text, as a dated update, or record that none had arrived by the deadline, with the date and time the questions were sent. NEXT DATE: 5 November 2026, NAB's FY26 results.
WATCH 9 October 2026 (case: THE INFLATION RORT). CBA, Westpac, NAB and ANZ each announced on 30 September a rise of 0.25 per cent a year in variable home loan rates, effective 9 October 2026 (their own pages and releases; CBA and ANZ say existing customers see the new rate from 10 October). Check that each bank's own rate page shows the new rates in force, and update the 30 September note in section 1 of this article if any bank changes its announcement. NEXT DATE: 15 October 2026, Macquarie's announced pass-through takes effect.
WATCH 9 October 2026 (case: THE INFLATION RORT). CBA, Westpac, NAB and ANZ each announced on 30 September a rise of 0.25 per cent a year in variable home loan rates, effective 9 October 2026 (their own pages and releases; CBA and ANZ say existing customers see the new rate from 10 October). Check that each bank's own rate page shows the new rates in force, and update the 30 September note in the mortgage holders section if any bank changes its announcement. NEXT DATE: 15 October 2026, Macquarie’s announced home loan rate rise takes effect.
WATCH 9 October 2026 (case: THE INFLATION RORT). CBA, Westpac, NAB and ANZ each announced on 30 September a rise of 0.25 per cent a year in variable home loan rates, effective 9 October 2026 (their own pages and releases; CBA and ANZ say existing customers see the new rate from 10 October), and Westpac announced that its Westpac Life total variable rate with bonus interest rises 0.25 per cent a year to 5.25 per cent from the same date. Check that each bank's own rate page shows the new rates in force, and whether any of the four has announced a savings or term deposit change since 5.43 pm AEST on 30 September, and from what date; add a dated update to article 5 if so. NEXT DATE: 13 October 2026, RBA tables F4, F4.1, F5 and F6.
WATCH 9 October 2026 (case: THE INFLATION RORT, article 24). NAB's release and customer notice say its variable home loan rates rise 0.25 per cent a year from Friday 9 October 2026, and NAB's terms say variable rate changes appear on its website on the day they commence. Re-read and record, each with its page stamp and the time read: NAB's home loan interest rates page (did the variable tables move by 0.25, and on which products?); its savings page and deposit indicator rates; its term deposit rate schedule; its fixed-rate page and indicator rate sheet (any fixed change since 2 October; if so, rerun the funding test against RBA tables F2 and F17 and the BlueGamma swap series); and its interest-rates news index. In February, March and May NAB's savings rise took effect on its home loan day; record whether it did this time, without inferring any reason NAB has not given. Add a dated update to article 24, and to articles 14 and 5 if NAB's savings rates move. NEXT DATE: 12 October 2026, NAB's reply date for the questions in article 24.
FOLLOW-UP 8 October 2026 (case: THE INFLATION RORT, article 24). THE RORT's 2 October email to NAB, for another article in this series, asked for a reply by Thursday 8 October, including NAB's decision on savings and term deposits; add any answer on savings or term deposits to article 24 as a dated update. The eleven questions in article 24 ask for a reply by 5 pm AEDT on Monday 12 October. Ubank's home loan pages say it will increase its Neat and Flex standard variable home loan rates by 0.25 per cent a year effective 8 October 2026; check whether its loan to value band rates move too. NEXT DATE: 9 October 2026, NAB's variable rise takes effect.
FOLLOW-UP 8 October 2026 (case: THE INFLATION RORT). The desk will next review any answers to the forty published questions (G1 to G17, T1 to T14, P1 to P4, O1 to O5). Record each answer, or ‘No answer had been published by 8 October 2026’, under its question.
NEXT DATE: 13 October 2026, Minutes.
FOLLOW-UP 6 October 2026 (case: THE INFLATION RORT, article 24). Ubank's savings page says: "From 6 October 2026, our Everyday Bonus Rate will increase to 5.35% p.a. Customers receiving our Welcome Bonus Rate will earn 6.10% p.a. from that date." Check that Ubank's page shows the new rates in force. Re-read NAB's savings page, its deposit indicator rates (last stamped effective 28 September 2026), its term deposit rate schedule and its interest-rates news index; record any savings or term deposit change with the page stamp, its effective date and the time read, and add a dated update to articles 24 and 14. NEXT DATE: 8 October 2026, NAB's reply date and Ubank's variable home loan rise.
FOLLOW-UP 6 October 2026 (case: THE INFLATION RORT). Re-check the CBA, Westpac, NAB and ANZ savings and term deposit rates for any change after the 29 September rise. As read between 5.40 pm and 5.43 pm AEST on 30 September, all four had announced a rise of 0.25 per cent a year in variable home loan rates from 9 October 2026, and the only savings change any of them had stated was Westpac’s Westpac Life total variable rate with bonus interest (to 5.25 per cent, from 9 October); CBA’s savings page said it was reviewing, NAB said it regularly reviews its savings and deposit rates, and ANZ said it continues to review other interest rates. Teachers Mutual Bank Limited has announced 1 October 2026 for its variable savings rise and 8 October 2026 for its variable home loan rise. If any of the big four has moved on savings or term deposits, add a dated update to article 5 with the change and its date. NEXT DATE: 9 October 2026, the big four’s variable home loan rises take effect.
NAB’s 0.25 is the whole of its announced variable home loan rise: NAB’s release and customer notice state a 0.25 percentage point rise for its variable home loans, and neither states a larger rise for any home loan [51]. The larger NAB figures reported since 2 October are for other products. Between 14 September and 2 October NAB raised its owner-occupier principal-and-interest fixed rates by…
UPDATED 4 October 2026 (case: THE INFLATION RORT, article 12).
ARTICLE CHANGES. One update, in the section on the repayment: NAB's 0.25 is the whole of its announced variable home loan rise; the larger NAB figures reported since 2 October are its fixed rates for new loans (0.35 to 0.47 points for owner-occupiers paying principal and interest, 0.30 to 0.45 for investors and 0.15 to 0.25 for owner-occupiers paying interest only, in two steps from 14 September to 2 October, after 22 July cuts of 0.05 in its owner-occupier one-year rate and 0.20 in its two-year rate, which at 6.81 per cent is 0.27 above its pre-cut 6.54 per cent, and 0.15 on its investor fixed rates) and its credit card purchase rates (0.50 to 1.50 points from each customer's first statement after 1 October); and THE RORT's arithmetic on a new $600,000, 30-year loan fixed for two years ($3,729.50 a month at 6.34 per cent on 14 September, $3,915.55 at 6.81 per cent from 2 October; $107.34 more than at the pre-cut 6.54 per cent), with a pointer to article 24. Four references added.
STILL OPEN. Whether Canstar's projection that four 2026 rises add about $364 a month on a $600,000 loan holds once the rises take effect.
NEXT DATE: 9 October 2026, the big four's variable home loan rises take effect.
PUBLISHED 4 October 2026 (case: THE INFLATION RORT, article 24).
FINDING. NAB's variable home loan rise is 0.25, effective 9 October, the same as CBA, Westpac and ANZ. Its fixed rates for new loans rose 0.35 to 0.47 points (owner-occupier principal and interest), 0.30 to 0.45 (investor) and 0.15 to 0.25 (owner-occupier interest only) in two steps between 14 September and 2 October. Against matched swap rates from NAB's 22 July repricing the owner-occupier rises came to between 8 basis points under and 11 over by term (about 14 under to 23 over across start dates from 21 July to 31 August); against government bond yields from mid-July to mid-August starts, about 0 to 11 over. The second step ran ahead of both benchmarks over the days between NAB's two moves, from 23 September. NAB's card purchase rates rise 0.50 to 1.50 from each customer's first statement after 1 October, public for its Rewards and frequent flyer cards by 28 July. As at 14:23 AEDT on 4 October NAB's headline savings rates (Reward Saver 5.00 per cent, 0.01 base plus 4.99 bonus; iSaver 5.25 introductory then 1.65) were unchanged since 17 September; in each earlier 2026 rise NAB's savings rise took effect on its home loan day, ten days after the decision. On THE RORT's tests the evidence does not show a money grab on home loans; savers are the open point.
STILL OPEN. NAB's savings and term deposit decision; the effective date of NAB's first fixed rise; whether re-fixing customers pay the new-loan rates; which variable products the 0.25 covers; the dates of NAB's September term deposit changes; when Low Fee and Low Rate cardholders were told of the 1 October changes; whether NAB's 31 March replicating-portfolio estimate still stands; swap data for 2 October; the noise band of the funding test. THE RORT's eleven new questions to NAB had not been sent at publication. On 2 October THE RORT sent NAB questions for another article in this series, not yet published, including its decision on savings and term deposits, and asked for a reply by Thursday 8 October.
NEXT DATE: 6 October 2026, Ubank's savings rise takes effect; re-read NAB's savings and deposit pages.
The paragraph above says Macquarie’s owner-occupier fixed rates were 0.30 to 0.50 points higher on 30 September than on 13 August without saying that this followed cuts. On 5 June Macquarie cut its one- to five-year fixed rates by 0.25, 0.40, 0.50, 0.35 and 0.45 points, from 6.44, 6.54, 6.59, 6.64 and 6.74 per cent, Canstar reported, to 6.19, 6.14, 6.09, 6.29 and 6.29 per cent, the same levels…
UPDATED 4 October 2026 (case: THE INFLATION RORT, article 4).
ARTICLE CHANGES. One correction and one update, in the section on fixed-rate rollovers. Correction: the update of 30 September said Macquarie's owner-occupier fixed rates were 0.30 to 0.50 points higher on 30 September than on 13 August without saying that Macquarie cut them by 0.25 to 0.50 on 5 June; its rates on 30 September (unchanged on 3 October) are 0.05 above the pre-June levels at one and two years, level at three and four years and 0.10 below at five. Update: NAB, a second lender: owner-occupier principal and interest fixed rates for new loans up 0.35 to 0.47 points in two steps between 14 September and 2 October, after 22 July cuts of 0.05 in its owner-occupier one-year rate and 0.20 in its two-year rate, which at 6.81 per cent is 0.27 above its pre-cut 6.54 per cent, and 0.15 on its investor fixed rates; borrowers part-way through a fixed term unaffected under NAB's general terms; at the end of a fixed term the loan rolls onto a variable rate unless re-fixed, at NAB's advertised fixed indicator rate on the day plus any offer-letter margin. Pointer to article 24. Four references added.
STILL OPEN. Whether NAB's indicator rate for a re-fixing customer equals its rates for new loans.
NEXT DATE: 9 October 2026, the big four's variable home loan rises take effect.
The paragraph above gives Macquarie’s net fixed-rate rises since 13 August (0.30 to 0.50 points) without saying that they followed cuts. On 5 June Macquarie cut its one- to five-year fixed rates by 0.25, 0.40, 0.50, 0.35 and 0.45 points, from 6.44, 6.54, 6.59, 6.64 and 6.74 per cent, Canstar reported, to 6.19, 6.14, 6.09, 6.29 and 6.29 per cent, the same levels its own page showed on 13 August…
UPDATED 4 October 2026 (case: THE INFLATION RORT, article 5).
ARTICLE CHANGES. One correction and one update in the first section, and one key fact added. Correction: the update of 30 September gave Macquarie's net fixed-rate rises since 13 August (0.30 to 0.50 points) without saying that Macquarie cut its one- to five-year fixed rates by 0.25 to 0.50 on 5 June; its rates on 30 September (unchanged on 3 October) are 0.05 above the pre-June levels at one and two years, level at three and four years and 0.10 below at five. Update: NAB's own margin record and investor slides: group net interest margin 1.70 per cent (half to March 2025), 1.81 (half to March 2026), 1.79 (June 2026 quarter); the slide "Benefit of rising rates largely reflected in replicating portfolios" and a replicating-portfolio tailwind of about 5 basis points for the half to September 2026, as NAB estimated at 31 March; its March 2026 half bridge (lending margin minus 4 basis points, replicating portfolios plus 3, deposits plus 1, liquid assets plus 1, Markets and Treasury plus 2); NAB's own account of that half (margin stable excluding Markets and Treasury and liquid assets, with replicating-portfolio and deposit gains offset by lending competition); that no NAB or APRA margin or profit figure read covers any period after 30 June 2026; and NAB's headline savings rates unchanged as at 14:23 AEDT on 4 October, with its earlier 2026 pattern (savings rises on its home loan day, ten days after each decision) and a pointer to article 24. Six references added.
STILL OPEN. The big four's savings and term deposit decisions beyond Westpac's and CBA's announced savings rises; NAB's FY26 result on 5 November (it cannot show the effect of the September rise on NAB's loan and deposit pricing); any statement the banks publish on their 2026 deposit and lending rates.
NEXT DATE: 6 October 2026, re-check of the big four's savings and term deposit rates.
The paragraph above gives Macquarie’s net fixed-rate rises since 13 August (0.30 to 0.50 points) without saying that they followed cuts. On 5 June Macquarie cut its one- to five-year fixed rates by 0.25, 0.40, 0.50, 0.35 and 0.45 points, from 6.44, 6.54, 6.59, 6.64 and 6.74 per cent, Canstar reported, to 6.19, 6.14, 6.09, 6.29 and 6.29 per cent, the same levels its own page showed on 13 August…
UPDATED 4 October 2026 (case: THE INFLATION RORT, article 9).
ARTICLE CHANGES. One correction, in the section on what was said on the day: the update of 30 September gave Macquarie's net fixed-rate rises since 13 August (0.30 to 0.50 points) without saying that Macquarie cut its one- to five-year fixed rates by 0.25 to 0.50 on 5 June; its rates on 30 September (unchanged on 3 October) are 0.05 above the pre-June levels at one and two years, level at three and four years and 0.10 below at five. The figures and dates in the 30 September update stand. One reference added.
STILL OPEN. As recorded on 30 September, not re-checked for this entry: the Governor's media conference transcript; the big four's savings and term deposit decisions beyond Westpac Life (CBA has since announced savings rises from 9 October, recorded in article 14); the day or days of Macquarie's September Digital Term Deposit and fixed rate rises, and whether its classic Term Deposit rose.
NEXT DATE: 13 October 2026, Minutes of the 29 September meeting, 11.30 am.
UPDATED 2 October 2026 (case: THE INFLATION RORT, article 19, The grill).
ARTICLE CHANGES. The desk’s next review of answers moved from Wednesday 7 October to Thursday 8 October 2026, one working day later, because Monday 5 October is a public holiday in New South Wales, the ACT, South Australia and Queensland. The text, the calendar of answers and its graphic now give 8 October. No question, record or reference changed.
STILL OPEN. All forty, as in the record of 29 September.
NEXT DATE: 8 October 2026, when the desk will next review any answers received.
The ABS published August CPI on 30 September. Annual tradables inflation was 2.9 per cent and non-tradables 4.5 per cent in August, against 1.7 and 4.4 in July [19][49]. The Transport group rose 5.6 per cent over the year to August, against 1.6 per cent to July [19], and Automotive fuel rose 14.8 per cent in the month of August after 7.5 per cent in July [48][49]. The ABS put the August fuel rise…
UPDATED 30 September 2026 (case: THE INFLATION RORT, article 10, A global war, a national rate).
ARTICLE CHANGES. Two updates, each recording the ABS August CPI published on 30 September: in "How much of it is the war", the August tradables and non-tradables split, Transport and fuel beside the July figures; in "What other central banks did", Australian annual CPI of 4.0 per cent for August beside the 3.5 per cent for July used in the comparison. The graphic is redrawn to show Australian annual CPI for August (4.0 per cent); its alt text and caption say so.
STILL OPEN. The excise share of the fuel rise (no ABS figure).
NEXT DATE: 13 October 2026, minutes, 11.30 am.
The desk re-read the big four banks’ pages between 4.59 am and 5.00 am AEST on 30 September, and the statement above that they had not announced any change still held on the pages read: CBA’s home loan page still showed 5 May 2026 and its savings page, dated 29 September, said “we’re currently reviewing the interest rates for savings products”; Westpac and ANZ, each dated 29 September, said they…
UPDATED 30 September 2026, three entries (case: THE INFLATION RORT, article 12). The calendar keys one record to each article and date, so the day's entries are kept together here in time order, each as written; the NEXT DATE line of the last entry is the current one.
ENTRY 1 OF 3 (as at about 5.00 am AEST).
ARTICLE CHANGES. One update, in the section on the repayment: the four major banks' own pages as at about 5.00 am AEST on 30 September (none had announced a decision); the two verified dated pass-throughs to variable home loans (Macquarie from 15 October, Teachers Mutual Bank Limited from 8 October); and Teachers Mutual Bank Limited's own repayment example (about $62 a month on a $400,000 loan over 25 years at 6.00 per cent) beside Canstar's projection.
STILL OPEN. The big four's response to the rise (none had announced a decision on the pages read at about 5.00 am AEST on 30 September); the share of households with a mortgage in 2026 (the latest official figure is 2019-20, with new results due from mid-2027).
NEXT DATE: 15 October 2026, Macquarie's rate changes take effect.
ENTRY 2 OF 3 (on the ABS August CPI).
ARTICLE CHANGES. One update in the renters section: the ABS published August CPI on 30 September, annual CPI 4.0 per cent (3.5 per cent in July); rents rose 3.6 per cent over the year to August, 0.4 percentage points below headline, where the article's July paragraph compared July's 3.6 with July's 3.5. Two references added. No published sentence was rewritten.
STILL OPEN. Nothing new opened by this update.
NEXT DATE: 15 October 2026.
ENTRY 3 OF 3 (in the evening, from 5.40 pm AEST).
ARTICLE CHANGES. One update, in the section on the repayment: the four major banks' own pages and releases, read between 5.40 pm and 5.43 pm AEST on 30 September. CBA, Westpac, NAB and ANZ each announced a rise of 0.25 per cent a year in variable home loan rates, effective 9 October 2026 (one day after Teachers Mutual Bank Limited's 8 October and six days before Macquarie's 15 October). Only ANZ gives a dollar figure, about $79 a month on a $500,000 owner-occupier loan with principal and interest repayments ($15.80 for each $100,000, THE RORT's arithmetic), beside Canstar's projection and Teachers Mutual Bank Limited's example. The update of about 5.00 am stands as the record of that time.
WATCH ENTRIES. The 15 October watch was rewritten to add the big four's 9 October date to the dates to check, and a new 9 October watch records their announced rises taking effect.
STILL OPEN. What borrowers will actually pay: the banks publish reference or index rates, and the discounted rates individual customers pay are not published; the share of households with a mortgage in 2026 (the latest official figure is 2019-20, with new results due from mid-2027).
NEXT DATE: 9 October 2026, the big four's announced variable home loan rises take effect.
The paragraph above gave 1 July 2027 as the start of the gas reservation scheme. The department’s reform page, last updated 29 September 2026, still says “This scheme will commence from 1 July 2027.” But the ministers’ joint media release of 10 September 2026 says the “licence application process will commence from 1 January 2027, with the Domestic Supply Obligation to commence from 1 January…
UPDATED 30 September 2026 (case: THE INFLATION RORT, article 16, Is it the only way?).
ARTICLE CHANGES. One correction and two updates. Correction: the gas reservation scheme was said to start on 1 July 2027 (in the gas at home section, the closing section, the sidebar key fact and the watch row); the ministers’ joint media release of 10 September 2026 says licence applications start on 1 January 2027 and the Domestic Supply Obligation on 1 January 2028. The sidebar key fact was amended; the two sentences are left as published, each with a dated correction after it. Updates: in the fuel section, after the paragraph reporting July's 7.5 per cent rise: the ABS published August CPI on 30 September, Automotive fuel up 14.8 per cent in the month, annual CPI 4.0 per cent (3.5 per cent in July). In the electricity section, after the paragraphs reporting the 6.1 per cent annual rise to July: electricity up 13.2 per cent over the 12 months to August, which the ABS put down largely to the ending of Commonwealth electricity rebates. Two references added, and the release added to reference 16. No published sentence was rewritten. The 1 July 2027 watch row now covers the unfair trading ban only, and a new 1 January 2028 watch row covers the gas reservation scheme.
STILL OPEN. The excise share of the fuel rise (no ABS figure).
NEXT DATE: 31 December 2026, formal end of the Energy Bill Relief extension.
The paragraph above said the reservation scheme would start in 2027 and quoted the 7 May 2026 date of 1 July 2027. The department’s reform page, last updated 29 September 2026, still says “This scheme will commence from 1 July 2027.” But the ministers’ joint media release of 10 September 2026 says the “licence application process will commence from 1 January 2027, with the Domestic Supply…
UPDATED 30 September 2026 (case: THE INFLATION RORT, article 18, Seven votes for a gas export tax, all lost).
ARTICLE CHANGES. One correction, in the section on what the government said: the scheme was described as starting in 2027, with the 7 May 2026 date of 1 July 2027 quoted. The ministers’ joint media release of 10 September 2026 says licence applications start on 1 January 2027 and the Domestic Supply Obligation on 1 January 2028. The sentence is left as published, with a dated correction after it, and the release is added to reference 23. The watch row for the scheme moved from 1 July 2027 to 1 January 2028. No vote, count or quotation in the article changed.
STILL OPEN. As in the record of 29 September.
NEXT DATE: 29 September 2027, the one-year review; then 1 January 2028, when the gas reservation scheme’s Domestic Supply Obligation is due to start.
The correction above said a gas reservation scheme starts on 1 July 2027. The department’s reform page, last updated 29 September 2026, still says ‘This scheme will commence from 1 July 2027.’ But the ministers’ joint media release of 10 September 2026 says the ‘licence application process will commence from 1 January 2027, with the Domestic Supply Obligation to commence from 1 January 2028’, and…
UPDATED 30 September 2026 (case: THE INFLATION RORT, article 3, Why the RBA did all the work).
ARTICLE CHANGES. One correction, in the opening, after the 29 September correction about the 2022 gas cap: that correction said a gas reservation scheme starts on 1 July 2027. The ministers’ joint media release of 10 September 2026 says licence applications start on 1 January 2027 and the Domestic Supply Obligation on 1 January 2028. The sentence is left as published, with a dated correction after it, and the release is added to reference 21.
STILL OPEN. As in the record of 29 September.
NEXT DATE: 29 September 2027, review.
As at about 5.00 am AEST on 30 September none of the big four had announced, on the pages THE RORT read, a decision on the September rise: CBA’s home loan page still showed 5 May 2026 and its savings page, dated 29 September, said it was ‘currently reviewing’ its savings rates; Westpac’s and ANZ’s pages, each dated 29 September, said they were reviewing their rates; NAB’s home loan page still…
UPDATED 30 September 2026, three entries (case: THE INFLATION RORT, article 4). The calendar keys one record to each article and date, so the day's entries are kept together here in time order, each as written; the NEXT DATE line of the last entry is the current one.
ENTRY 1 OF 3 (as at about 5.00 am AEST).
ARTICLE CHANGES. Two updates. Mortgage holders: the four major banks' own pages as at about 5.00 am AEST on 30 September (none had announced a decision), the two verified dated pass-throughs to borrowers (Macquarie from 15 October, Teachers Mutual Bank Limited from 8 October), and Teachers Mutual Bank Limited's own repayment example (about A$62 a month on an A$400,000 loan over 25 years at 6.00 per cent). Fixed-rate rollovers: Macquarie's owner-occupier fixed rates for new loans were 0.30 to 0.50 points higher on 30 September than on 13 August, in two rises, the first dated by media reports to 8 September and the second reported on 24 September.
STILL OPEN. The big four's response to the 29 September rise (none announced a decision on the pages read at about 5.00 am AEST on 30 September).
NEXT DATE: 15 October 2026, Macquarie's announced 0.25 point rise in its variable home loan reference rates takes effect.
ENTRY 2 OF 3 (on the ABS August CPI).
ARTICLE CHANGES. One update in the renters section: the ABS published August CPI on 30 September, annual CPI 4.0 per cent (3.5 per cent in July); rents rose 3.6 per cent over the year to August, 0.4 percentage points below headline, where the article's July paragraph compared July's 3.6 with July's 3.5. Two references added. No published sentence was rewritten.
STILL OPEN. Nothing new opened by this update.
NEXT DATE: 15 October 2026.
ENTRY 3 OF 3 (in the evening, from 5.40 pm AEST).
ARTICLE CHANGES. One update, in the mortgage holders section: the four major banks' own pages and releases, read between 5.40 pm and 5.43 pm AEST on 30 September. CBA, Westpac, NAB and ANZ each announced a rise of 0.25 per cent a year in variable home loan rates, effective 9 October 2026 (one day after Teachers Mutual Bank Limited's 8 October and six days before Macquarie's 15 October). Only ANZ gives a dollar figure, about A$79 a month on an A$500,000 owner-occupier loan with principal and interest repayments (A$15.80 for each A$100,000, THE RORT's arithmetic). The update of about 5.00 am stands as the record of that time.
WATCH ENTRIES. The 15 October watch was rewritten to add the big four's 9 October date to the dates to check, and a new 9 October watch records their announced rises taking effect.
STILL OPEN. What borrowers will actually pay: the banks publish reference or index rates, and the discounted rates individual customers pay are not published.
NEXT DATE: 9 October 2026, the big four's announced variable home loan rises take effect.
More of the record on the fourth rise, on advertised rates only: balances held in each product are not published, and THE RORT draws no conclusion about any bank’s margin from it. Macquarie’s own release of 29 September also raises its Transaction Account rate from 2.75 to 3.00 per cent, 25 basis points, on every balance tier from 15 October [39]. In September, before the decision, Macquarie’s…
UPDATED 30 September 2026, two entries (case: THE INFLATION RORT, article 5). The calendar keys one record to each article and date, so the day's entries are kept together here in time order, each as written; the NEXT DATE line of the last entry is the current one.
ENTRY 1 OF 2 (as at about 5.00 am AEST).
ARTICLE CHANGES. One update, in the first section: Macquarie's Transaction Account rise (2.75 to 3.00 per cent, 25 basis points, from 15 October, on its own release); its September Digital Term Deposit rises (5, 15, 15 and 20 basis points on 3, 6, 9 and 12 months between its pages of 1 and 21 September) and its two September rises in fixed home loan rates for new loans (net 0.30 to 0.50 points since 13 August); Teachers Mutual Bank Limited's 0.25 per cent rises to variable savings from 1 October and variable home loans from 8 October; the four major banks' own pages as at about 5.00 am AEST on 30 September (none had announced a decision). All are advertised rates; no margin conclusion is drawn.
STILL OPEN. The big four's response to the 29 September rise (none had announced a decision on the pages read at about 5.00 am AEST on 30 September); the day or days of Macquarie's September Digital Term Deposit and fixed rate rises, and whether its classic Term Deposit rose (not on the record); any statement the banks publish on their 2026 deposit and lending rates, to be added as a dated update.
NEXT DATE: 6 October 2026, re-check of the big four's rate pages.
ENTRY 2 OF 2 (in the evening, from 5.40 pm AEST).
ARTICLE CHANGES. One update, in the first section: the four major banks' own pages and releases, read between 5.40 pm and 5.43 pm AEST on 30 September. CBA, Westpac, NAB and ANZ each announced a rise of 0.25 per cent a year in variable home loan rates, effective 9 October 2026 (six days before Macquarie's 15 October). The only savings change any of them stated was Westpac's: its Westpac Life total variable rate with bonus interest rises 0.25 per cent a year to 5.25 per cent from 9 October. CBA's savings page still said it was reviewing; NAB said it regularly reviews its savings and deposit rates; ANZ said it continues to review other interest rates; none stated a term deposit change. ANZ gives the only dollar figure (about $79 a month on a $500,000 owner-occupier loan, principal and interest). All are advertised rates; no margin conclusion is drawn. The update of about 5.00 am stands as the record of that time.
WATCH ENTRIES. The 6 October follow-up was retitled and rewritten to cover savings and term deposits only, because the big four's variable home loan rises are now announced, and a new 9 October watch records those rises taking effect.
STILL OPEN. CBA's, NAB's and ANZ's savings and term deposit decisions and dates, and Westpac's deposit products other than Westpac Life; the day or days of Macquarie's September Digital Term Deposit and fixed rate rises, and whether its classic Term Deposit rose (not on the record); any statement the banks publish on their 2026 deposit and lending rates, to be added as a dated update.
NEXT DATE: 6 October 2026, re-check of the big four's savings and term deposit rates.
The paragraph beginning ‘The political context’ and the subtitle said that Woolworths and Coles donate to both parties. THE RORT searched the Australian Electoral Commission’s Transparency Register (Annual Donor Returns, Donations Made Details) on 30 September 2026 [14]. The register supports the statement for Woolworths: the 2024-25 return of Woolworths Group Limited lists A$27,900 in donations…
UPDATED 30 September 2026 (case: THE INFLATION RORT, article 7 of 19 published).
ARTICLE CHANGES. Correction 1, in the section on the structural pattern: the gas reservation scheme was said to be announced to start on 1 July 2027. The ministers’ joint media release of 10 September 2026 says licence applications start on 1 January 2027 and the Domestic Supply Obligation on 1 January 2028; the sentence is left as published, with a dated correction after it, and the release is added to reference 24. Correction 2, in the section on the supermarkets: THE RORT searched the AEC Transparency Register. Woolworths Group Limited’s 2024-25 return lists A$27,900 in donations to the Labor, Liberal and National parties, so that statement stands, with the year and source now given (reference 14). No donation under a Coles name appears after the 2007-08 return, so the statement that Coles donates to both parties is withdrawn; the parties’ own returns record other receipts from Coles Group to both major parties up to 2015-16, and the receipts side of the register lists other receipts from Coles Group Limited to two associated entities from 2019-20 to 2024-25, not disclosed as donations, which is now stated. The subtitle, the paragraph and the pullquote in the section on the structural pattern (which said ‘The supermarkets donated to both parties’, now ‘Woolworths donated to both parties’) were amended, the image caption qualified and the image alt text amended. The graphic now shows the supermarket row as Woolworths giving to both parties, with Coles shown separately. Update: the reader note’s ‘supermarket donations’ claim is now checked; every other claim in it remains unverified.
STILL OPEN. Every other claim in the reader note of 29 September remains unverified. Whether any Coles company has donated under another name is not known.
NEXT DATE: 29 September 2027, one-year review (see review row).
The paragraph above said a gas reservation scheme is due to start on 1 July 2027. The department’s reform page, last updated 29 September 2026, still says ‘This scheme will commence from 1 July 2027.’ But the ministers’ joint media release of 10 September 2026 says the ‘licence application process will commence from 1 January 2027, with the Domestic Supply Obligation to commence from 1 January…
UPDATED 30 September 2026 (case: THE INFLATION RORT, article 8, The reckoning).
ARTICLE CHANGES. One correction and one update. Correction, in the section on what has not changed: the sentence that a gas reservation scheme is due to start on 1 July 2027. The ministers’ joint media release of 10 September 2026 says licence applications start on 1 January 2027 and the Domestic Supply Obligation on 1 January 2028. The sentence is left as published, with a dated correction after it. Update, in the opening, after the 29 September update that said inflation was 'easing to 3.5 per cent in July 2026': the ABS published August CPI on 30 September, annual CPI 4.0 per cent, up from 3.5 per cent in July. Two references added, and the release added to reference 25. No published sentence was rewritten.
STILL OPEN. Nothing new opened by this update.
NEXT DATE: 29 September 2027, review.
The paragraph above said that for a saver with a balance between $250,000 and $2 million the rise is 5 basis points, against the borrowers’ 25. That is too broad. The 5 basis points is Macquarie’s Savings Account ongoing rate only (5.00 to 5.05 per cent). Macquarie’s own release of 29 September puts its Transaction Account rate up from 2.75 to 3.00 per cent, 25 basis points, on every balance…
UPDATED 30 September 2026, three entries (case: THE INFLATION RORT, article 9). The calendar keys one record to each article and date, so the day's entries are kept together here in time order, each as written; the NEXT DATE line of the last entry is the current one.
ENTRY 1 OF 3 (as at about 5.00 am AEST).
ARTICLE CHANGES. One correction and four updates, all in the section on what was said on the day. Correction: the line that for a saver with a balance between $250,000 and $2 million Macquarie's rise is 5 basis points, against the borrowers' 25, was too broad. The 5 basis points is the Savings Account only; Macquarie's own release of 29 September raises its Transaction Account from 2.75 to 3.00 per cent (25 basis points) on every tier. Updates: Macquarie's September Digital Term Deposit rises (5, 15, 15 and 20 basis points on 3, 6, 9 and 12 months between its pages of 1 and 21 September, after a 5 basis point cut in early August) and its two September rises in fixed home loan rates for new loans (net 0.30 to 0.50 points since 13 August); Teachers Mutual Bank Limited's 0.25 per cent rises to variable savings from 1 October and variable home loans from 8 October, and Macquarie's statement by Ben Perham; the four major banks' own pages as at about 5.00 am AEST on 30 September (none had announced a decision) and the Australian Banking Association's.
STILL OPEN. The Governor's media conference transcript (not posted at 4.08 pm on 29 September; not re-checked here); the big four's response (none had announced a decision on the pages read at about 5.00 am AEST on 30 September); the day or days of Macquarie's September Digital Term Deposit and fixed rate rises, and whether its classic Term Deposit rose (not on the record).
NEXT DATE: 30 September 2026, ABS August CPI, 11.30 am.
ENTRY 2 OF 3 (on the ABS August CPI).
ATTENDED 30 September 2026 (watch item of 2026-09-30: the rise takes effect; ABS August CPI at 11.30 am; case: THE INFLATION RORT, article 9, Four rises in 2026).
FINDING. The ABS published August CPI at 11:30 am AEST on 30 September, the day after the Board's decision. Annual CPI rose 4.0 per cent in the 12 months to August 2026, up from 3.5 per cent in July: the first rise in the annual rate since the March peak of 4.6 per cent. The CPI rose 0.4 per cent in the month in original terms. Trimmed mean inflation was 3.6 per cent, unchanged. Automotive fuel rose 14.8 per cent in the month of August (7.5 per cent in July) and 13.5 per cent over the 12 months; the ABS put the August rise down to higher world oil prices and the unwinding of the remainder of the federal government's fuel excise relief measures in August, and the ABS pages read give no figure for the excise share.
ARTICLE CHANGES. Article 9: one update, appended as the last paragraph of "How we got here", with two new references; the fact box now carries the August figure beside July's; the graphic's alt text and caption say it was drawn to July. The same figure is added as a dated update to articles 4, 8, 10, 12 and 16 and to held article 22; held article 21 carries it as draft text.
STILL OPEN. The excise share of the fuel rise (no ABS figure); the graphic still shows CPI to July 2026 and is not redrawn here; the September CPI with quarterly data on 28 October.
NEXT DATE: 13 October 2026, minutes, 11.30 am.
ENTRY 3 OF 3 (in the evening, from 5.40 pm AEST).
ARTICLE CHANGES. One update, in the section on what was said on the day: the four major banks' own pages and releases, read between 5.40 pm and 5.43 pm AEST on 30 September. CBA, Westpac, NAB and ANZ each announced a rise of 0.25 per cent a year in variable home loan rates, effective 9 October 2026 (one day after Teachers Mutual Bank Limited's 8 October and six days before Macquarie's 15 October). On savings, the only change any of the four stated was Westpac's: its Westpac Life total variable rate with bonus interest rises 0.25 per cent a year to 5.25 per cent, effective 9 October. CBA's savings page still said it was reviewing; NAB said it regularly reviews its savings and deposit rates; ANZ said it continues to review other interest rates; none stated a term deposit change. The Australian Banking Association's news page carried nothing on the rise. The update of about 5.00 am stands as the record of that time.
STILL OPEN. The Governor's media conference transcript (not posted at 4.08 pm on 29 September; not re-checked here); CBA's, NAB's and ANZ's savings and term deposit decisions and dates, and Westpac's deposit products other than Westpac Life; the day or days of Macquarie's September Digital Term Deposit and fixed rate rises, and whether its classic Term Deposit rose (not on the record).
NEXT DATE: 13 October 2026, Minutes of the 29 September meeting, 11.30 am.
This article called the 2022-23 cycle ‘the fastest tightening cycle in Australian history’, in the paragraph above, in this section’s heading, in a key fact and in its first reference. That was wrong. On the Reserve Bank’s own cash rate table, which begins in January 1990, the 1994 cycle rose 2.75 percentage points in 119 days (17 August to 14 December 1994), about 0.69 points every 30 days…
UPDATED 29 September 2026 (case: THE INFLATION RORT, article 1 of 19 published).
ARTICLE CHANGES. Corrections: ‘fastest tightening cycle in Australian history’ was wrong on the RBA’s own table (1994 was faster); now ‘the biggest since 1990, the fastest since 1994’, in the heading, key fact and reference too. The April pass-through paragraph gave the RBA’s rise in outstanding mortgage rates as a rise in ‘mortgage payments’ and carried fixed-rate figures that could not be re-sourced; it is rewritten on the RBA’s pass-through measures. ‘Fiscal policy remained largely passive’ left out the 2022 gas cap and the 2022-23 and 2023-24 surpluses; amended. Updates: the 2025 cuts and four 2026 rises to 4.60 per cent; the RBA’s margin research beside the Australia Institute’s claim; the chart’s corporate margins row relabelled as contested and its mortgage income figure relabelled as the Australia Institute’s; the ACCC did not allege price gouging; the Governor on the oil shock; real wages forecast to have fallen again; the 2026 supply-shock question and the Budget’s ‘better suited’ line; the 2022 gas cap and the 2022-24 surpluses beside the tools not used, and the deficits since 2024-25.
STILL OPEN. None specific to this article.
NEXT DATE: 13 October 2026, minutes of the 29 September meeting, 11.30 am.
PUBLISHED 29 September 2026 (case: THE INFLATION RORT, article 10).
FINDING. The RBA names the war first; its Governor said in May the rises will have no impact on the oil-driven inflation; on its own numbers fuel added 0.8 points to March's 4.6 per cent and the war's indirect effect a bit more than 0.1 point to June-quarter trimmed mean; of the central banks checked it moved most in 2026.
STILL OPEN. The RBA's split of the 2026 rises between war pass-through and domestic capacity (not published in the documents read).
NEXT DATE: 13 October 2026, Minutes.
PUBLISHED 29 September 2026 (case: THE INFLATION RORT, article 11).
FINDING. The Reserve Bank’s own models put the peak effect of a 100 basis point rise, one to two years later in most of them, at ⅛ to ½ of a point off year-ended inflation and ¼ to 1 per cent off the level of GDP; the two Bank papers that report unemployment put it about 0.3 to one-third of a point higher. On THE RORT’s calculation, medium confidence as an order of magnitude, that is about 46,700 to 51,900 more unemployed people per 100 basis points at the August 2026 labour force. The Bank has published no estimate of what the 2026 rises will do to unemployment or inflation.
STILL OPEN. Any Bank estimate of the effect of the 2026 rises; whether the Bank has re-estimated MARTIN’s responses since the 2019 paper (not established).
NEXT DATE: 3 November 2026, Board decision.
PUBLISHED 29 September 2026 (case: THE INFLATION RORT, article 12).
FINDING. On the same hypothetical $600,000 loan, Canstar projects the four 2026 rises add about $364 a month: about 8.4 per cent of $52,000 gross and 0.44 per cent of the Governor's 2024/25 base salary (THE RORT's arithmetic, gross, before tax, no real person's finances). The ABS records that in the June quarter mortgage interest charges rose 8.2 per cent and employee households had the largest living-cost rise of any household type. The Reserve Bank forecasts unemployment rising from 4.4 per cent to 4.8 per cent by end-2028 (it does not split that forecast by cause); the August figure was 4.6 per cent, and youth unemployment was 10.8 per cent. The Bank's own case is carried beside each charge.
STILL OPEN. The big four's response to the rise (none announced by 4.46 pm AEST on 29 September, and none had announced a decision on the pages read at about 5.00 am AEST on 30 September); the share of households with a mortgage in 2026 (the latest official figure is 2019-20, with new results due from mid-2027).
NEXT DATE: 15 October 2026, Macquarie's rate changes take effect.
PUBLISHED 29 September 2026 (case: THE INFLATION RORT, article 13).
FINDING. The blanket claim that corporations are untouched by the rate rises is not supported. Between the June quarters of 2022 and 2026, financial corporations' operating surplus rose 36.6 per cent while private non-financial corporations' fell 9.4 per cent (THE RORT’s calculation from ABS levels; 'financial corporations' is a whole sector, not banks alone). Small firms pay 7.44 per cent on new loans against 5.54 per cent for large firms (July 2026). The Reserve Bank's 29 September statement records strong growth in business investment and debt, and firms raising prices or looking to. Beside that: the Bank's own research finds margins have had only a modest impact on inflation overall, its staff find business owner returns dragged a little on consumer prices in some quarters from 2023 to early 2026, the economy-wide profit share is below its December 2019 level, and first-time company insolvencies fell in 2025-26.
STILL OPEN. What evidence the Reserve Bank holds on how the burden of tightening is shared between households and firms was not established in this round. The OECD Employment Outlook 2026's own words on profits and Australian inflation could not be read; only Greg Jericho's account of them is cited, as his.
NEXT DATE: none dated in the desk's record for this article.
PUBLISHED 29 September 2026 (case: THE INFLATION RORT, article 15).
FINDING. The Reserve Bank paid $12,603 million, $14,651 million and $9,674 million in interest on Exchange Settlement balances in 2022/23, 2023/24 and 2024/25, about $36.9 billion in all (THE RORT’s sum of the three audited figures). Its own review puts the cost of its Term Funding Facility at about $9 billion, about $4 billion of it from the September 2020 extension, and says that extension came when the banks’ slow take-up suggested they did not need the funding to meet borrower demand. The Bank’s own answer is that banks passed the lower funding costs on in full and that borrowers who had locked in low fixed rates were the ultimate beneficiaries. The Bank’s losses sit on its own balance sheet, with no capital injection. The Bank does not publish the interest by institution, and this article attributes none of it to any bank.
STILL OPEN. The Exchange Settlement rate in force from 30 September 2026 is not published: the Board no longer announces it with its decisions, and today’s decision statement does not state it. The 2025/26 interest bill is not yet published.
NEXT DATE: none dated. The date of the Bank’s 2026 annual report, which will carry the 2025/26 figure, has not been found.
PUBLISHED 29 September 2026 (case: THE INFLATION RORT, article 16).
WHAT IT DOES. It answers the question "is the cash rate the only thing that can be done?" with a tool board of thirteen levers: the cash rate, the gas and coal caps, energy bill relief, the fuel excise cut, four competition measures, APRA's lending limits, the Major Bank Levy, a gas and coal windfall levy and a 25 per cent gas export tax. Most levers carry the case against them.
STILL OPEN. (1) No after-the-fact evaluation of the December 2022 gas and coal caps was found. (2) Whether Treasury completed the windfall levy modelling that, the ABC reported on 20 March 2026, the Prime Minister's department had requested, and whether it will be published, is unknown. (3) Whether the excise roll-off, which the RBA expected to lift September-quarter headline inflation, shows up in the 28 October CPI, and by how much, is open; no ABS decomposition of the cut's effect was found. (4) The questions for the Treasurer and the Prime Minister are published in The grill, article 19 of this series; answers will be added as they arrive.
NEXT DATE: 28 October 2026, 11.30 am AEDT, the ABS September CPI with quarterly data: does the excise roll-off (the RBA expected it to lift September-quarter headline inflation) show up, and by how much.
PUBLISHED 29 September 2026 (case: THE INFLATION RORT, article 17).
FINDING. The Monetary Policy Board has nine members. The Treasurer appoints six of them, the Treasury Secretary sits and votes, and the Government did not remove the Treasurer's power to override the Bank, as the RBA Review had recommended. Votes are published at 2.30 pm on decision day without names. Only the Governor's and Deputy Governor's declarations of interests are published. The Bank's own pages, the Act, the RBA Review and the Remuneration Tribunal were read for this; no allegation is made against any member.
STILL OPEN. Whether any member has voted after disclosing an interest to the Treasurer under s 7D, and whether the seven unpublished declarations will be published. The Governor's Remuneration Tribunal band, and whether the 1 July 2026 freeze applies to her package. Whether the RBA staff code, which binds the Governor and Deputy Governor, has a cooling-off rule (the board Code has none). The Treasurer's reasons for keeping s 11. Whether Dr Ross attended on 29 September.
NEXT DATE: 13 October 2026, 11.30 am, the Minutes of the 29 September meeting.
PUBLISHED 29 September 2026 (case: THE INFLATION RORT, article 18).
FINDING. THE RORT found seven recorded divisions on a 25 per cent gas export tax in 2026 in the Journals of the Senate and the House Votes and Proceedings, and every one was lost: Senate 12 March (13 to 35 on the Greens’ amendment; 13 to 34 on Senator David Pocock’s amendment to it), 31 March (10 to 26), 1 April (12 to 32), 29 June (10 to 33) and 12 August (11 to 30), and House 2 June (9 to 71, no Coalition member on either list). The article sets each side’s stated reasons beside the votes, in their own words.
STILL OPEN. No formal government response to the Senate Select Committee on the Taxation of Gas Resources’ 7 May 2026 report was found (the search was not exhaustive). Whether the evaluation the Labor senators recommended (by Treasury or the Productivity Commission, after the crisis passes) has been commissioned is not known. Whether the Prime Minister’s department and Treasury completed or released the windfall levy modelling the ABC reported on 20 March is not known. No Senate vote on a bank windfall tax was found in 2026; the House was not searched for that.
NEXT DATE: 1 January 2028, when the gas reservation scheme’s Domestic Supply Obligation is due to start (corrected 30 September 2026: this line first said 1 July 2027).
PUBLISHED 29 September 2026 (case: THE INFLATION RORT, article 19).
FINDING. Forty questions published, each anchored on the asked office’s own words and records: 17 to the Governor and the Monetary Policy Board, 14 to the Treasurer, 4 to the Prime Minister and 5 to the Opposition.
STILL OPEN. All forty. The article carries no answers, and nothing in it says a question was sent to anyone.
NEXT DATE: 7 October 2026, when the desk will next review any answers received.
The ACCC’s media release announcing its final report is dated 21 March 2025, not 20 March as the paragraph above said [16]; the earlier date matched the 20 March 2025 date of the US News report this article cited [2].
UPDATED 29 September 2026 (case: THE INFLATION RORT, article 2 of 19 published).
ARTICLE CHANGES. Correction: the ACCC final report was released on 21 March 2025, not 20 March. Updates: RBA research on margins and profits (May 2023 box, May 2026 Bulletin, August 2026 staff article) and the Governor's and the Bank's 2026 words on firms passing on costs, beside the Australia Institute's claim; the excessive-pricing ban from 1 July 2026, the mandatory grocery code and merger control; an unsourced line on price controls withdrawn.
STILL OPEN. Whether the ACCC has used the excessive-pricing ban. THE RORT has not checked the ACCC's enforcement record; any finding will be added to this article.
NEXT DATE: none dated for this article.
This article called the 2022-23 cycle the fastest in the Reserve Bank’s history (here) and in Australian history (subtitle and first reference), and it described every meeting as a rise and every rise as 25 basis points; the Board held five times in 2023 [16], and four of the 13 rises were 50 basis points. The first claim was wrong: on the RBA’s own cash rate table, which begins in 1990, the 1994…
UPDATED 29 September 2026 (case: THE INFLATION RORT, article 3 of 19 published).
ARTICLE CHANGES. Corrections: the RBA 'legally mandated' or 'required by its mandate' to raise rates whenever inflation is above target (the statute names price stability and full employment; subtitle, opening paragraph and one later passage amended); 'fastest in its history' (1994 was faster) and 'every meeting' a rise (the Board held five times in 2023); the government did cap gas prices from late December 2022, with coal caps announced that month (opening paragraph, two later passages, subtitle, caption, pullquote, key fact and image amended); 'raising nothing from its windfall' (existing company tax still applied); the 2023-24 surplus was $15.8bn, not about A$9bn; the Lowe passage was AMP's paraphrase; fossil fuel subsidies were A$11.1bn in 2022-23, not A$14.9bn 'maintained'; a Major Bank Levy on liabilities exists; landlord pass-through overstated; the unsourced '1.5 million households at mortgage stress' replaced by Roy Morgan's July 2026 estimate; the unsourced A$32.5bn 'record' FY23 bank profit, and the listing of the banks among companies whose price rises contributed to inflation, replaced by APRA net interest income and the Reserve Bank's pass-through figures for 2022-23 (a key fact amended too); the Santos A$30bn line removed and the PRRT 'less than beer excise' line replaced by the Senate figures of 1 April 2026 with the PRRT basis; donations offered as the political economy answer to government inaction, and the supermarkets' ACCC 'political relationships' line, removed; 'every 25 basis points' (four rises were 50) added to the record of the opening correction; 'corporate margins expanding' replaced by the Reserve Bank's finding. Updates: the 2025 cuts and the 2026 rises to 4.60 per cent; deficits since 2024-25; the 2026 pattern; the AEC register on bank and gas payments to both major parties, with the parties' stated reasons beside it.
STILL OPEN. The UK and EU figures were not re-verified. These live lines carry no source in this update: 'first in 15 years'; the A$3bn cost of the 2022 fuel excise cut (text, fact box, key fact and image); the image's France 'EUR 45B' and Spain price-cap lines; the United States Inflation Reduction Act paragraph; 'extraordinary government revenues' from commodities; 'real wages fell' in 2022-23; 'record revenues' for LNG exporters; the AMP paraphrase of Lowe; and reference [15]'s 'No structural remedies introduced', which was not re-checked (its 'No price controls' is annotated against the 1 July 2026 excessive-pricing prohibition).
NEXT DATE: none dated for this article.
The subtitle, image caption, image, fact box, pullquote and key facts of this article previously said that more than 1.5 million Australian households were at mortgage stress by October 2023, and the second paragraph of this section repeated it. THE RORT could not verify that figure, and the source cited for it in references [2] and [5], as THE RORT reads it, refers to mortgage holders, not…
UPDATED 29 September 2026 (case: THE INFLATION RORT, article 4 of 19 published).
ARTICLE CHANGES. Corrections: landlord pass-through overstated (paragraph, subtitle, section heading and pullquote amended); the pullquote’s closing line on the sources of the supply shock reworded; the ‘1.5 million households at mortgage stress’ figure and the linked ‘1 in 50 severe stress’ line withdrawn as unverified (THE RORT reads the cited source as describing mortgage holders, and Roy Morgan’s model counts people), replaced with Roy Morgan’s July 2026 estimate in the subtitle, caption, fact box, key facts and image. Updates: the RBA’s distributional estimates; 2026 repayments (Canstar projection, ABS living costs, Roy Morgan beside the RBA’s measures); fewer than 5 per cent of mortgages fixed; renters; unpublished home-ownership research; real wages, unemployment and youth unemployment.
STILL OPEN. The big four’s response to the 29 September rise (none announced a decision on the pages read at about 5.00 am AEST on 30 September).
NEXT DATE: 15 October 2026, Macquarie’s announced 0.25 point rise in its variable home loan reference rates takes effect.
The words ‘fully’ (in the paragraph above, now removed), ‘quickly and completely’ and ‘slowly and incompletely’ (in the subtitle, now amended) overstated the 2022-23 record. The Reserve Bank measured that the average outstanding variable mortgage rate rose by around 70 basis points less than the cash rate between May 2022 and September 2023 (new variable rates about 40 basis points less), while…
UPDATED 29 September 2026 (case: THE INFLATION RORT, article 5, Who rate rises helped).
ARTICLE CHANGES. Two corrections and five updates. Second correction: the unsourced A$32.5 billion FY23 combined big four profit (up 12.4 per cent), the individual bank profits, the word record for CBA, the A$74.9 billion net interest income (up 13.8 per cent) with a 9 basis point margin gain, and the 1.5 million mortgage stress figure with the claimed link between them were removed from the subtitle, caption, opening section, fact box, key facts, pull quote and image (its alt text too), and replaced with APRA net interest income and profit figures; the 2022-23 asymmetry passages were dated to that cycle, with a pointer to the 2026 paid-rate comparison. First correction: ‘fully’ in the opening paragraph, and ‘quickly and completely’ and ‘slowly and incompletely’ in the subtitle, overstated the 2022-23 record; the Reserve Bank measured outstanding variable mortgage rates rising about 70 basis points less than the cash rate and total deposit rates rising about 75 per cent of it. The subtitle, the opening paragraph, the pull quote and the image (its header, mechanism panel, levy line and source footer, and its alt text) were amended. The same overstatements (‘fast for borrowers, slow for depositors’, ‘the beneficiary is primarily the banking sector’, ‘transferred purchasing power from borrowers ... to banks’, and the Senate answers that ‘confirmed the asymmetry’) were removed from the body. Updates: the four 2026 rises and the 2026 borrower and saver rates (the gap between the average rate charged on outstanding owner-occupier variable loans and the average household deposit rate paid did not measurably widen, while transaction, cash management and short term deposit savers got little or none of the rise); the banks’ own accounts (CBA, KPMG, the RBA); the ACCC deposit findings; no bank profit levy found, the Major Bank Levy on liabilities, and the donation record beside it; the interest the RBA paid on banks’ Exchange Settlement balances and its Term Funding Facility review. Key facts: four unsourced lines replaced, three added, three amended.
STILL OPEN. The big four’s response to the 29 September rise (none had announced a change when last checked at 4.46 pm on 29 September, and none had announced a decision on the pages read at about 5.00 am AEST on 30 September); any statement the banks publish on their 2026 deposit and lending rates, to be added as a dated update.
NEXT DATE: 6 October 2026, re-check of the big four’s rate pages.
‘Three days later’ was wrong on this article’s own dates: 26 May 2022 is 23 days after 3 May 2022. The Reserve Bank announced its first rise on 3 May 2022 and it took effect on 4 May; the 23 days run from the announcement [16].
UPDATED 29 September 2026 (case: THE INFLATION RORT, article 6 of 19 published).
ARTICLE CHANGES. Corrections: the RBA rise and the UK levy were 23 days apart, not three; the article omitted the 2022 gas and coal price caps, so its "No price caps", its image and its "sole" intervention were wrong; the fact box on subsidies and the bank levy (A$14.9 billion was the 2024-25 figure, and a Major Bank Levy on liabilities has applied since 2017); the subsidy and fuel tax credit paragraphs; the A$900 and A$1,210 illustration was not a modelled figure and was removed, with the superannuation sentence; the sentence that the reason these tools were not deployed "is documented in Article 7" was replaced, because Article 7 reports donations as facts that do not show why any party acted; an unsourced Grattan Institute attribution was replaced by a statement of THE RORT’s own argument; the sentence that France "raised interest rates less aggressively" was removed for want of a source; the UK bank surcharge, which the article gave as an additional 3 percentage point levy on bank profits throughout the rate cycle (it was 8 per cent, and fell to 3 per cent only from 1 April 2023), together with the line that UK banks enjoyed the same margin expansion Article 5 documents for Australian banks (Article 5 covers Australian banks only); and the big four banks’ combined FY23 profit of A$32.5 billion, "as documented in Article 5", which Article 5 has withdrawn for want of a primary source, and which was replaced in the paragraph, the key facts, the chart and its description by APRA’s $42.5 billion bank (ADI) profit after tax for the year to June 2026. Updates: the cash rate rose four times in 2026, to 4.60% from 30 September 2026; the EU solidarity contribution raised under 30 per cent of what was expected, and 12 EU countries have introduced bank taxes; the 2026 fuel excise cut, the Budget's line on fiscal policy and the windfall levy study the ABC reported was dropped; France's 2023 price cap figure; the government’s surplus figures, added as the other side of the charge. Wording on a windfall tax, the gas and coal caps, the cause of inflation in both countries, the UK Energy Profits Levy (the article’s mention of a threshold was removed), the estimate of what a UK-scale levy might have raised and the count of Australian windfall taxes was tightened; a forecast in the excise paragraph was restored to a forecast; and the chart was corrected to match, with Spain's bank levy from 2023 added. Unsourced sentences were also removed: that France's household inflation rate was lower than in unprotected markets, that France thus protected households, and that Australian households faced higher domestic energy bills.
STILL OPEN. These lines carry no re-checked source: the EUR 45 billion for France's tariff shield and its dates; the UK Energy Profits Levy rates and its GBP 10 billion; the 2022 fuel excise cut's A$3 billion cost, 22 cents a litre and dates; the Spain, Germany, Netherlands and Italy list. Reference notes 7, 8, 13 and 14 are marked as not re-checked.
NEXT DATE: none dated for this article.
This article’s subtitle and closing pullquote said there was ‘No bank levy’ and ‘No price caps’. Both were wrong. A Major Bank Levy on certain liabilities of the largest banks has applied since 1 July 2017; it is a levy on liabilities, not on profits [16]. From late December 2022 the government capped new east coast wholesale gas contracts at $12 a gigajoule, with New South Wales and Queensland…
UPDATED 29 September 2026 (case: THE INFLATION RORT, article 7 of 19 published).
ARTICLE CHANGES. Corrections: the subtitle and pullquote said there was no bank levy and no price caps (a Major Bank Levy on liabilities has applied since 2017, and gas and coal prices were capped from late December 2022); the supermarket inquiry intervals were about 14 months and about 13 months, not eighteen and fifteen (subtitle, heading, key fact, graphic and references amended); the list of supermarket measures was incomplete (mandatory Food and Grocery Code, merger notification), so the subtitle, pullquote, a key fact and the graphic no longer present A$2.9 million as the whole response; the A$14.9 billion fossil fuel subsidy figure is the 2024-25 total, not the 2022-23 level; the A$32.5 billion FY23 combined bank profit has been withdrawn because THE RORT has no primary source for it (paragraph, key fact, graphic, image description and reader note). Updates: the excessive-pricing ban from 1 July 2026 and the Unfair Trading Practices Bill; what has been put in place or announced since the inflation peak; AEC donation returns for the banks and for gas producers, reported as facts that do not show why any party acted, with the government’s and the Coalition’s stated reasons beside the gas votes; the Parliamentary Budget Office’s 75 per cent pass-through assumption for a bank levy; and a reader note listing the claims not re-verified: the supermarket donations; the 2022-23 Senate levy claim; the government’s stated position on bank profits; the Finance Sector Union line; A$2.9 million for supplier education; the Treasurer’s ‘ongoing supermarket crackdown’; the Australian Food and Grocery Council’s position; ‘record revenues’ for exporters; the 24 per cent supermarket price figure in the image; ‘first such inquiry since 2008’; the Ukraine price spike as a primary driver of 2022-23 inflation, and exporters’ prices as a driver of energy inflation; the Gas Rort and Roads Rort summaries in the second paragraph; the December 2022 inflation peak and the February 2024 direction date; and the statement that the government blocked a competitor’s flights on Qantas’s explicit request. A further correction removes the closing section’s claim that donations or campaign funding explain the lack of structural reform, and replaces the stale ‘five complete series’ count; the caption, subtitle, pullquote and key fact no longer imply a cause. Two other phrases that implied a cause were also changed: ‘The political explanation’ in the supermarket section now reads ‘The political context’, and the fossil fuel section no longer says the sector’s ‘political protection remained intact’. The key number and graphic that read ‘0 structural reforms implemented’ now read ‘0 divestitures recommended by the ACCC’, and the graphic’s ‘NO REFORM’ now reads ‘NO BREAK-UP’, because whether the measures listed in the update above are structural is a judgement.
STILL OPEN. Every claim in the reader note above remains unverified.
NEXT DATE: 29 September 2027, one-year review (see review row).
The graphic at the head of this article, its description and reference [4] previously said that mortgage stress households rose from about 800,000 to more than 1,500,000, and that the big four banks’ annual profit rose from about A$28 billion to A$32.5 billion (marked as not re-verified). THE RORT has no primary source for the A$32.5 billion or the A$28 billion, could not verify the household…
UPDATED 29 September 2026 (case: THE INFLATION RORT, article 8 of THE INFLATION RORT).
ARTICLE CHANGES. Corrections: the fossil fuel subsidy figure (A$16.3 billion in 2025-26, up 9.4 per cent, on the Australia Institute's classification, not A$14.9 billion; text, key fact and image); 'eighteen months after the peak' (about 14 months); the deposit rate recommendation, which had said deposit rates rise when the cash rate is cut; the lesson sentence, which said the burden transfers wealth from borrowers to banks. Withdrawn: the graphic's mortgage stress households (about 800,000 to more than 1,500,000) and big four annual profit (about A$28 billion to A$32.5 billion) figures, with the reference [4] description and the caption's 'Bank profits stayed high', replaced by Roy Morgan's July 2026 estimate (people, not households) and KPMG's half-year profit; see the Correction. Qualified inline without a dated note: the caption’s ‘Bank profits were record’ and the image’s ‘(record)’ label (not re-verified; now ‘stayed high’ and ‘not re-verified’). Updates: inflation since April 2026 and the four 2026 rises to 4.60 per cent; the cycle beginning again, with the February rise dated against the war and the electricity rebates; the reforms in force or due (some already in force when this was written and not mentioned), the windfall record and the banks’ profit figures with the deposit and loan rates beside them; the RBA’s naming of the war from March; the 2028 and late 2027 inflation dates.
STILL OPEN. The April 2026 figures in the text, key facts and image (real wages, household income, borrowing capacity, supermarket shares and margins) were not re-verified.
NEXT DATE: 3 November 2026, the next Board decision.
PUBLISHED 29 September 2026 (case: THE INFLATION RORT, article 9).
FINDING. The Monetary Policy Board raised the cash rate target 25 basis points to 4.60 per cent, effective 30 September, unanimously: the fourth rise of 2026 and the highest since late 2011. Its reasons put the Middle East war and global energy prices first, then AI-related demand and pressure on domestic capacity.
STILL OPEN. The Governor's media conference transcript (not posted at 4.08 pm); the big four's response (none by 4.46 pm on 29 September; none had announced a decision on the pages read at about 5.00 am AEST on 30 September).
NEXT DATE: 30 September 2026, ABS August CPI, 11.30 am.